如何用有限元新模型研究地震触发和应力场连续演化
摘要
首先提出了一种考虑构造应力场影响的有限元新模型和地震触发因子C.新有限元模型可以用来研究地震序列中的地震触发和应力场演化.地震触发因子C定义为滑动面上的剪应力和摩擦强度的比值,它可以用来预测地震能否触发以及触发区的范围.然后利用这个有限元新方法和地震触发因子C研究了1976年唐山地震序列的余震触发情况.结果表明唐山地震的应力场和断层带的非均匀性对余震触发有重要影响.落入新有限元模型预测的地震触发区中的余震要明显多于落入地震位错理论预测的地震触发区中的余震.
引文
1Smith S W,Van de Lindt W.Strain adjustments associated with earthquakes in southern California.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1969,59(4):1569—1589
2Rybicki K.Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocation theory.Phys Earth Planet Inter,1973,7:409—422
3Yamashina K.Induced earthquakes in the Izu Peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of1974,Japan.Tectonophysics,1978,51:139—154
4Das S,Scholz C.Off-fault aftershock clusters caused by shear stress increase?Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1981,71:1669—1675
5Stein R S,Lisowski M.The1979Homestead Valley earthquake sequence,California:control of aftershocks and postseismic deforma-tion.J Geophys Res,1983,88(B8):6477—6490
6Oppenheimer D H,Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Fault plane solutions for the1984Morgan Hill,California,earthquake sequence:evidence for the state of stress on the Calaveras fault.J Geophys Res,1988,93:9007—9026
7Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake.Science,1992,289:1687—1690
8King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and triggering of earthquakes.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1994,84(3):935—953
9Harris R A,Simpson W,Reasenberg P A.Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California.Nature,1995,375:221—224
10Harris R A,Simpson R W.In the shadow of1857—The effect of the great Ft.Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California.Geophys Res Lett,1996,23(23):229—232
11Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.Stress coupling between earthquakes in Northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24469—24486
12Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al.Stress transferred by the1995Mw=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24543—24565
13Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999,402:605—609
14Ziv A,Rubin A M.Static stress transfer and earthquake triggering:no lower threshold in sight?J Geophys Res,2000,105(B6):13631—13642
15Robinson R,McGinty P J.The enigma of the Arthur’s Pass,New Zealand,earthquake2.The aftershocks distribution and its relation to regional and induced stress fields.J Geophys Res,2000,105(B7):16139—16150
16Milkereit C,Grosser H,Wang R J,et al.Implications of the2003Bingol Earthquake for the Interaction between the North and East Anatolian Faults.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,2004,94(6):2400—2406
17Nalbant S S,McCloskey J,Steacy S.Lessons on the calculation of static stress loading from the2003Bingol,Turkey earthquake.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2005,235:632—640
18石耀林.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考.地震,2001,21(3):1—7
19沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究.地球物理学报,2003,46(6):786—795
20刘桂萍,傅征祥.1973年炉霍大地震(Ms=7.6)最大余震(Ms=6.3)的库仑破裂应力触发.中国地震,2002,18(2):175—182
21吴小平,虎雄林,Michel B,等.云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震的完全库仑破裂应力变化与后续地震的动态、静态应力触发.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2007,37(6):746—752
22万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震应力触发研究.地震学报,2002,24(5):533—551
23Wang R J,Francisco L M,Frank R.Computation of deformation induced by earthquakes in a multi-layered elastic crust--FORTRAN programs EDGRN/EDCMP.Comput Geosci,2003,29:195—207
24Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.The static stress change triggering model:constraints from two southern California after-shock sequences.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24427—24437
25Hill D P,Reasenberg P A,Michael A,et al.Remote seismicity triggered by the M=7.5Landers,California earthquake of June28,1992.Science,1993,260:1617—1623
26Harris R A.Introduction to special section:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24347—24358
27王仁,何国琦,殷有泉,等.华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟.地震学报,1980,2(1):32—42
28Wang R,Sun X Y,Cai Y E.A mathematical simulation of earthquake sequence in North China in the last700years.Sci Sin Ser B,1983,24(1):103—112
29Freed A M,Lin J.Time-dependent changes in failure stress following thrust earthquakes.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24394—24409
30Melosh H J,Raefsky A.The dynamic origin of subduction zone topography.Geophys J R Astro Soc,1980,60:333—354
31Gomberg J,Ellis M.3D-Def:A User’s Manual.USGS Open-file Report,1993.93—547
32Gomberg J,Ellis M.Topography and tectonics of the New Madrid seismic zone:results of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional boundary element program.J Geophys Res,1994,99:20299—20310
33Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1992,82:1018—1040
34Zhang Q W,Zhang P Z,Wang C,et al.Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt.Acta Seismol Sin,2003,16(2):156—165
35Evans J P.Thickness-displacements relationships for fault zones.J Struct Geol,1990,12:1061—1065
36Caine J S,Evans J P,Forster C B.Fault zone architecture and permeability structure.Geology,1996,24:125—128
37Schulz S E,Evans J P.Mesoscopic structure of the Punchbowl Fault,Southern California,and the geologic and geophysical structure of active strike-slip faults.J Struct Geol,2000,22:913—930
38Jaeger J C,Cook N G W.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.3rd ed.London:Chapman and Hall,1979
39蔡美峰.地应力测量原理和技术.北京:科学出版社,2000
40蔡永恩,殷有泉.热弹性问题的有限元方法及程序设计.北京:北京大学出版社,1997
41Goodman R E.Introduction to Rock Mechanics.2nd ed.New York:John Wiley&Sons,1989
42虢顺民,李志义,程绍平,等.唐山地震区域构造背景和发震模式的讨论.地质科学,1977,4:305—320
43李志义,虢顺民.从地震构造看宁河6.9级余震和唐山主震的关系.地震地质,1979,1(4):27—35
44国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震.北京:地震出版社,1982
45河北省地震局.唐山地震目录(1976年7月—1979年12月).北京:地震出版社,1980
46Zhang H Z,Diao G L,Chen Q F,et al.Focal mechanism analysis of the recent earthquakes in Tangshan seismic region of M7.6in1976.J Seismol Res,2008,31(1):1—5
47邱群.1976年7月28日河北唐山7.8级地震的发震背景及其活动性.地球物理学报,1976,19(4):259—269
48Zhang Z L,Liu X M,Zhang Z L.Effects of lateral nonuniformity on stress field of earth’s crust.Sci Sin,1981,24(3):374—385
49张之立,李钦祖,谷继成,等.唐山地震的破裂过程及其力学分析.地震学报,1980,2(2):111—129
50中国科学院地质研究所山东地震地质考察小组.山东断块构造特征与地震带的初步划分.地质科学,1974,4:315—329
51李方全.华北地区现今构造应力场.地应力测量的原理及应用.北京:地质出版社,1980
52Li Y G,Vidale J E,Day S M,et al.Study of the1999M7.1Hector Mine,California,earthquake fault plane by trapped waves.Bull Seis-mol Soc Amer,2002,92:1318—1332
53Chen Y T,Huang L R,Lin B H,et al.A dislocation model of the Tangshan earthquake of1976from the inversion of geodetic data.Acta Geophys Sin,1979,22(3):201—217
54Zhao S R,Chao D B.Determination of the fault slip distribution of the1976Tangshan earthquake by the finite element method.J Geodyn,1995,19(2):107—115
55蔡永恩,何涛,王仁.1976年唐山地震震源动力过程的数值模拟.地震学报,1999,21(5):469—477
2Rybicki K.Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocation theory.Phys Earth Planet Inter,1973,7:409—422
3Yamashina K.Induced earthquakes in the Izu Peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of1974,Japan.Tectonophysics,1978,51:139—154
4Das S,Scholz C.Off-fault aftershock clusters caused by shear stress increase?Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1981,71:1669—1675
5Stein R S,Lisowski M.The1979Homestead Valley earthquake sequence,California:control of aftershocks and postseismic deforma-tion.J Geophys Res,1983,88(B8):6477—6490
6Oppenheimer D H,Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Fault plane solutions for the1984Morgan Hill,California,earthquake sequence:evidence for the state of stress on the Calaveras fault.J Geophys Res,1988,93:9007—9026
7Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake.Science,1992,289:1687—1690
8King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and triggering of earthquakes.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1994,84(3):935—953
9Harris R A,Simpson W,Reasenberg P A.Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California.Nature,1995,375:221—224
10Harris R A,Simpson R W.In the shadow of1857—The effect of the great Ft.Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California.Geophys Res Lett,1996,23(23):229—232
11Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.Stress coupling between earthquakes in Northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24469—24486
12Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al.Stress transferred by the1995Mw=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24543—24565
13Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999,402:605—609
14Ziv A,Rubin A M.Static stress transfer and earthquake triggering:no lower threshold in sight?J Geophys Res,2000,105(B6):13631—13642
15Robinson R,McGinty P J.The enigma of the Arthur’s Pass,New Zealand,earthquake2.The aftershocks distribution and its relation to regional and induced stress fields.J Geophys Res,2000,105(B7):16139—16150
16Milkereit C,Grosser H,Wang R J,et al.Implications of the2003Bingol Earthquake for the Interaction between the North and East Anatolian Faults.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,2004,94(6):2400—2406
17Nalbant S S,McCloskey J,Steacy S.Lessons on the calculation of static stress loading from the2003Bingol,Turkey earthquake.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2005,235:632—640
18石耀林.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考.地震,2001,21(3):1—7
19沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究.地球物理学报,2003,46(6):786—795
20刘桂萍,傅征祥.1973年炉霍大地震(Ms=7.6)最大余震(Ms=6.3)的库仑破裂应力触发.中国地震,2002,18(2):175—182
21吴小平,虎雄林,Michel B,等.云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震的完全库仑破裂应力变化与后续地震的动态、静态应力触发.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2007,37(6):746—752
22万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震应力触发研究.地震学报,2002,24(5):533—551
23Wang R J,Francisco L M,Frank R.Computation of deformation induced by earthquakes in a multi-layered elastic crust--FORTRAN programs EDGRN/EDCMP.Comput Geosci,2003,29:195—207
24Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.The static stress change triggering model:constraints from two southern California after-shock sequences.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24427—24437
25Hill D P,Reasenberg P A,Michael A,et al.Remote seismicity triggered by the M=7.5Landers,California earthquake of June28,1992.Science,1993,260:1617—1623
26Harris R A.Introduction to special section:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24347—24358
27王仁,何国琦,殷有泉,等.华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟.地震学报,1980,2(1):32—42
28Wang R,Sun X Y,Cai Y E.A mathematical simulation of earthquake sequence in North China in the last700years.Sci Sin Ser B,1983,24(1):103—112
29Freed A M,Lin J.Time-dependent changes in failure stress following thrust earthquakes.J Geophys Res,1998,103(B10):24394—24409
30Melosh H J,Raefsky A.The dynamic origin of subduction zone topography.Geophys J R Astro Soc,1980,60:333—354
31Gomberg J,Ellis M.3D-Def:A User’s Manual.USGS Open-file Report,1993.93—547
32Gomberg J,Ellis M.Topography and tectonics of the New Madrid seismic zone:results of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional boundary element program.J Geophys Res,1994,99:20299—20310
33Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,1992,82:1018—1040
34Zhang Q W,Zhang P Z,Wang C,et al.Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt.Acta Seismol Sin,2003,16(2):156—165
35Evans J P.Thickness-displacements relationships for fault zones.J Struct Geol,1990,12:1061—1065
36Caine J S,Evans J P,Forster C B.Fault zone architecture and permeability structure.Geology,1996,24:125—128
37Schulz S E,Evans J P.Mesoscopic structure of the Punchbowl Fault,Southern California,and the geologic and geophysical structure of active strike-slip faults.J Struct Geol,2000,22:913—930
38Jaeger J C,Cook N G W.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.3rd ed.London:Chapman and Hall,1979
39蔡美峰.地应力测量原理和技术.北京:科学出版社,2000
40蔡永恩,殷有泉.热弹性问题的有限元方法及程序设计.北京:北京大学出版社,1997
41Goodman R E.Introduction to Rock Mechanics.2nd ed.New York:John Wiley&Sons,1989
42虢顺民,李志义,程绍平,等.唐山地震区域构造背景和发震模式的讨论.地质科学,1977,4:305—320
43李志义,虢顺民.从地震构造看宁河6.9级余震和唐山主震的关系.地震地质,1979,1(4):27—35
44国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震.北京:地震出版社,1982
45河北省地震局.唐山地震目录(1976年7月—1979年12月).北京:地震出版社,1980
46Zhang H Z,Diao G L,Chen Q F,et al.Focal mechanism analysis of the recent earthquakes in Tangshan seismic region of M7.6in1976.J Seismol Res,2008,31(1):1—5
47邱群.1976年7月28日河北唐山7.8级地震的发震背景及其活动性.地球物理学报,1976,19(4):259—269
48Zhang Z L,Liu X M,Zhang Z L.Effects of lateral nonuniformity on stress field of earth’s crust.Sci Sin,1981,24(3):374—385
49张之立,李钦祖,谷继成,等.唐山地震的破裂过程及其力学分析.地震学报,1980,2(2):111—129
50中国科学院地质研究所山东地震地质考察小组.山东断块构造特征与地震带的初步划分.地质科学,1974,4:315—329
51李方全.华北地区现今构造应力场.地应力测量的原理及应用.北京:地质出版社,1980
52Li Y G,Vidale J E,Day S M,et al.Study of the1999M7.1Hector Mine,California,earthquake fault plane by trapped waves.Bull Seis-mol Soc Amer,2002,92:1318—1332
53Chen Y T,Huang L R,Lin B H,et al.A dislocation model of the Tangshan earthquake of1976from the inversion of geodetic data.Acta Geophys Sin,1979,22(3):201—217
54Zhao S R,Chao D B.Determination of the fault slip distribution of the1976Tangshan earthquake by the finite element method.J Geodyn,1995,19(2):107—115
55蔡永恩,何涛,王仁.1976年唐山地震震源动力过程的数值模拟.地震学报,1999,21(5):469—477
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