基于未确知均值分类理论的岩爆发生和分级预测方法
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摘要
为解决岩爆预测中的不确定性问题,将未确知均值分类理论应用于岩爆综合评判中,建立了岩爆发生和分级预测的未确知均值分类理论分析模型。模型选用最大切应力、单轴抗压强度、单轴抗拉强度和弹性能量指数4个指标作为岩爆发生和分级预测的判别因子。将岩爆烈度分为4个等级并作为未确知均值分类理论分析的4个类别。以国内外岩爆工程实测数据作为建立分类标准和模型的样本,以各等级的指标均值作为分类标准,求取未确知测度函数。采用信息熵确定权重,用置信度识别准则进行等级判定。将本研究建立的模型应用到隧道和矿山工程的岩爆预测中,结果表明,未确知均值分类分级预测方法预测结果与实际情况吻合较好,预测精度高,因而是岩爆发生和分级预测的一种有效方法,可在岩爆工程判别中应用和推广。
To solve the uncertain problems in rockburst prediction, uncertain average graded analysis method is applied to predict the level of rockburst. Uncertain average graded analysis model is first established for the prediction of possibility and the level of rockburst. Four indexes such as the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wall, uniaxial compressive strength, uniaxial tensile strength, and the elastic energy index are selected as the factors for synthetic evaluation of rockburst. The indexes criteria are determined by averages of each graded sample. The intensity of rockburst is divided into four grades that are considered as four normal populations in uncertain average graded analysis. Uncertain functions are obtained by indexes criteria. Uncertain average graded analysis model were obtained through training a series of underground rock projects both at home and abroad. The faith judgment criterion is used to judge which grade the evaluating sample belongs to. The processes of the proposed method are given. The proposed model is verified by the back substitution method. Results show that the back-test-correct rate is high. The proposed model is applied to two practical projects of tunnel and mine. Cases study shows that calculation results are consistent with actual conditions. The proposed model could be used widely in practical engineering.
To solve the uncertain problems in rockburst prediction, uncertain average graded analysis method is applied to predict the level of rockburst. Uncertain average graded analysis model is first established for the prediction of possibility and the level of rockburst. Four indexes such as the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wall, uniaxial compressive strength, uniaxial tensile strength, and the elastic energy index are selected as the factors for synthetic evaluation of rockburst. The indexes criteria are determined by averages of each graded sample. The intensity of rockburst is divided into four grades that are considered as four normal populations in uncertain average graded analysis. Uncertain functions are obtained by indexes criteria. Uncertain average graded analysis model were obtained through training a series of underground rock projects both at home and abroad. The faith judgment criterion is used to judge which grade the evaluating sample belongs to. The processes of the proposed method are given. The proposed model is verified by the back substitution method. Results show that the back-test-correct rate is high. The proposed model is applied to two practical projects of tunnel and mine. Cases study shows that calculation results are consistent with actual conditions. The proposed model could be used widely in practical engineering.
引文
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[2]王元汉,李卧东,李启光,等.岩爆预测的模糊数学综合评判方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1998,17(5):493-501.Wang Yuanhan,Li Wodong,Lee P K K,et al.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1998,17(5):493-501.
[3]丁向东,吴继敏,李健,等.岩爆分类的人工神经网络预测方法[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2003,31(4):424-427.Ding Xiangdong,Wu Jimin,Li Jian,et al.Journal of Hohai University:Natural Sciences Edition,2003,31(4):424-427.
[4]赵洪波.岩爆分类的支持向量机方法[J].岩土力学,2005,26(4):642-644.Zhao Hongbo.Rock and Soil Mechanics,2005,26(4):642-644.
[5]杨莹春,诸静.物元模型及其在岩爆分级预报中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(8):125-129.Yang Yingchun,Zhu Jing.Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2001,21(8):125-129.
[6]刘金海,冯涛,袁坚.基于非线性灰色归类模型的岩爆预测方法[J].地下空间与工程学报,2005(6):821-824.Liu Jinhai,Feng Tao,Yuan Jian.Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2005(6):821-824.
[7]王光远.论未确知性信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):52-58.Wang Guangyuan.Journal of Harbin Architecture and Engineering Institute,1990,23(4):52-58.
[8]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.膨胀土胀缩等级分类的未确知均值聚类方法及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2008,39(5):1075-1080.Dong Longjun,Li Xibing,Gong Fengqiang.Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology Edition,2008,39(5):1075-1080.
[9]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.开采地面沉陷预测的未确知聚类预测模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):95-99.Dong Longjun,Li Xibing,Gong Fengqiang.The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2008,19(2):95-99.
[10]董陇军,王飞跃.基于未确知测度的边坡地震稳定性综合评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(4):74-78.Dong Longjun,Wang Feiyue.The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2007,18(4):74-78.
[11]Dong Longjun,Peng Gangjian,Fu Yuhua,et al.Journal of Coal Science&Engineering,2008,14(2):221-224.
[12]刘开第,庞彦军,孙光勇,等.城市环境质量的未确知测度评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999,19(12):52-58.Liu Kaidi,Pang Yanjun,Sun Guangyong,et al.Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,1999,19(12):52-58.
[13]曹庆奎,刘开展,张博文.用熵计算客观型指标权重的方法[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2000,17(3):40-42.Cao Qingkui,Liu Kaizhan,Zhang Bowen.Journal of Hebei Institute of Architectural Science and Technology,2000,17(3):40-42.
[14]陈海军,郦能惠,聂德新,等.岩爆预测的人工神经网络模型[J].岩土工程学报,2002,24(2):229-232.Chen Haijun,Lin Nenghui,Nie Dexin,et al.Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2002,24(2):229-232.
[15]蔡嗣经,张禄华,周文略.深埋硬岩矿山岩爆预测研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2005(5):17-20.Cai Sijing,Zhang Luhua,Zhou Wenlue.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2005(5):17-20.
[16]祝方才,潘长良,曹平,等.冬瓜山矿床岩爆发生机制分析[J].金属矿山,2002,24(2):20-21.Zhu Fangcai,Pan Changliang,Cao Ping,et al.Metal Mine,2002,24(2):20-21.
[17]宫凤强,李夕兵.岩爆发生和烈度分级预测的距离判别方法及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(5):1012-1018.Gong Fengqiang,Li Xibing.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(5):1012-1018.
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