中国能源效率及节能潜力分析
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摘要
本文对比了中国、发达国家及全球平均的主要能源效率指标,明确了中国当前的总体能源效率水平。通过对比产业和部门能源效率指标,分析产生指标差距的原因和影响因素,找出了能源效率差距所在,并运用相关规律对一些能效指标的未来变化趋势进行判断,进而确定了我国节能的潜力和主要领域。研究表明,我国节能工作已取得巨大成就,但仍有很大潜力。不同部门节能空间不同,不同部门的能效指标会有不同表现。因此,节能措施选择和目标设定要针对具体情况区别对待。
This paper deals with the level of China's overall energy efficiency based on comparing its general energy efficiency indicators with those of the developed countries and the global averages.By comparatively studying the indicators of industries and various departments and analyzing the affecting factors,the gap between China and the advanced countries in energy efficiency is found out.With the application of related rules,the trends of some indicators are determined,with which the potential and the major fields of energy conservation are identified.The results show that,though great achievements have been made,there is still potential for further improvement.The space of improvement varies from department to department,and some indicators will move in different directions in the future.Therefore special consideration must be given to specific departments in adopting measures and setting goals.
This paper deals with the level of China's overall energy efficiency based on comparing its general energy efficiency indicators with those of the developed countries and the global averages.By comparatively studying the indicators of industries and various departments and analyzing the affecting factors,the gap between China and the advanced countries in energy efficiency is found out.With the application of related rules,the trends of some indicators are determined,with which the potential and the major fields of energy conservation are identified.The results show that,though great achievements have been made,there is still potential for further improvement.The space of improvement varies from department to department,and some indicators will move in different directions in the future.Therefore special consideration must be given to specific departments in adopting measures and setting goals.
引文
韩新阳,吴鹏,郭利杰,陈磊,谭显东,单葆国.2009.2008年电力行业节能分析[J].电力技术经济,21(6):55-58.
何文强,汪明星.2009.全要素能源效率的DEA模型评价—基于中国1991-2007年数据的实证检验[J].上海商学院学报,10(5):92-96.
何祚庥.2010.我国节能减排的压力与对策[J].天然气技术,4(2):1-3.
李铭,王高尚,于汶加,刘占成.2010.中国石油资源安全评价[J].地球学报,31(5):686-692.
李晓明,王安建,于汶加.2010.基于能源需求理论的全球CO2排放趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):741-748.
李玉喜,张道勇,朱杰.2009.我国油气储量、产量增长趋势影响因素分析[J].地球学报,30(6):855-867.
刘占成,王安建,于汶加,李铭.2010.中国区域碳排放研究[J].地球学报,31(5):727-732.
王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,于汶加,周凤英,韩淑琴,闫强,张照志,牛建英,汪莉丽,耿诺.2008.能源与国家经济发展[M]北京:地质出版社.
王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,于汶加.2010.矿产资源需求理论与模型预测[J].地球学报,31(2):137-147.
王安建,王高尚,张建华,周凤英,韩淑琴,陈宣华,殷秀兰,韩梅.2002.矿产资源与国家经济发展[M].北京:地震出版社.
王安建.2010.世界资源格局与展望[J].地球学报,31(5):621-627.
王高尚,韩梅.2002.中国重要矿产需求预测[J].地球学报,23(6):483-490.
王高尚.2010.后危机时代矿产品价格趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):629-634.
王彦彭.2009.我国节能减排指标体系研究[J].煤炭经济研究,(2):31-33.
王彦彭.2010.我国节能减排进程的评价与比较[J].技术经济与管理研究,(3):116-121.
吴利学.2009.中国能源效率波动:理论解释、数值模拟及政策含义[J].经济研究,(5):130-142.
徐铭辰,王安建,陈其慎,杜雪明.2010.中国能源消费强度趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):720-726.
尹敬东,代秀梅.2009.单位GDP能源消耗与产业结构特征[J].产业经济研究,(5):67-73.
于汶加,王安建,王高尚.2010.中国能源消费“零增长”何时到来[J].地球学报,31(5):635-644.
曾胜,黄登仕.2009.中国能源消费、经济增长与能源效率——基于1980-2007年的实证分析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,(8):17-28.
张安华.2006.中国电力工业节能降耗影响因素分析[J].电力需求侧管理,8(6):1-4.
张意翔,刘捷,成金华.2009.我国能源效率变化趋势及调整政策——基于产业结构重型化视角的实证分析[J].管理学报,6(6):818-822.
郑畅.2009.能源效率的地区差异及其影响因素分析[J].江西社会科学,(9):101-104.
邹愉,王高尚,于汶加,林建.2010.典型国家部门石油消费轨迹及对中国的启示[J].地球学报,31(5):666-672.
ENERDATA.2010.Global Energy Intelligence[EB/OL].[2010-02-25]http://www.enerdata.net/evaluation/1230.asp.
HAN Xin-yang,WU Peng,GUO Li-jie,CHEN Lei,TAN Xian-dong,SHAN Bao-guo.2009.Analysis on Energy Conservation of Elec-tricity Power Industry in2008[J].Electric Power Technologic Economics,21(6):55-58(in Chinese with English abstract).
HE Wen-Qing,WANG Ming-xing.2009.Evaluation for the DEA Model in Calculating Total-Factor Energy Efficiency——An Empirical Test Based on China’s Data from1991to2007[J].Journal of Shanghai Business School,10(5):92-96(in Chinese with English abstract).
HE Zuo-xiu.2010.Pressure of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction and China’s Counter measures[J].Natural gas technology,4(2):1-3(in Chinese with English abstract).
IEA.2008a.World Energy Outlook2008[R].Paris:International Energy Agency.
IEA.2008b.Worldwide Trend in Energy Use and Efficiency[R].Paris:International Energy Agency.
LI Ming,WANG Gao-shang,YU Wen-jia,LIU Zhan-cheng.2010.An Evaluation of China's Oil Security[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):686-692(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Xiao-ming,WANG An-jian,YU Wen-jia.2010.A Trend Analy-sis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on the Energy De-mand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):741-748(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Yu-xi,ZHANG Dao-yong,ZHU Jie.2009.Factors that Affect the Increasing Trends of China’s Oil and Gas Reserves and Products[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,30(6):855-867(in Chi-nese with English abstract).
LIU Zhan-cheng,WANG An-jian,YU Wen-jia,LI Ming.2010.Research on Regional Carbon Emissions in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):727-732(in Chinese with English abstract).
PHILIP A S.2009.China's ongoing energy efficiency drive:Origins,progress and prospects[J].Energy policy,37(4):1331-1344.
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,YU Wen-jia,ZHOU Feng-ying,HAN Shu-qin,YAN Qiang,ZHANG Zhao-zhi,NIU Jian-ying,WANG Li-li,GENG Nuo.2008.En-ergy and national economic development[M].Beijing:Geo-logical Publishing House(in Chinese).
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,YU Wen-jia.2010.The mineral resources demand theory and the prediction model[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(2):137-147(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,ZHANG Jian-hua,ZHOU Feng-ying,HAN Shu-qin,CHEN Xuan-hua,YIN Xiu-lan,HAN Mei.2002.Mineral resources and national economic development[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press(in Chinese).
WANG An-jian.2010.Global Resource Structure and its Perspec-tive[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):621-627(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Gao-shang,HAN Mei.2002.The Prediction of the Demand on Important Mineral Resources in China[J].Acta Geoscien-tica Sinica,23(6):483-490(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Gao-shang.2010.Mineral Commodity Prices Trend in the Late Crisis Times[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):629-634(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Yan-peng.2009.A study on the indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of China[J].Coal eco-nomic research,(2):31-33(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Yan-peng.2010.The Evaluation and Comparison of Re-alization Degree on the Energy Saving and Emission Reduc-tion of China[J].Tech-economics and management study,(3):116-121(in Chinese with English abstract).
World Bank.2010.World Development Indicators[EB/OL].[2010-7-15]http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-dev-elopment-indicators.
World Energy Council.2008.Energy Efficiency Policies around the World:Review and Evaluation[R].London:World Energy Council.
World Energy Council.2010.World Energy Efficiency Indica-tors[EB/OL].[2010-6-20]http://www.worldenergy.org publi-cations/energy_efficiency_policies_around_the_world_review_and_evaluation/1230.asp.
WU Li-xue.2009.The Fluctuations of China’s Energy Efficiency:Theoretical Explains,Numerical Simulations and Policy Ex-periments[J].Economic Research,(5):130-142(in Chinese with English abstract).
XU Ming-chen,WANG An-jian,CHEN Qi-shen,DU Xue-ming.2010.Trend Analysis of China’s Energy Consumption Inten-sity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):720-726(in Chinese with English abstract).
YIN Jing-dong,DAI Xiu-mei.2009.Unit GDP Energy Consump-tion and Industrial Structure of Jiangsu[J].Industrial Econom-ics Research,(5):67-73(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Wen-jia,WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang.2010.A Predic-tion on the Time of Realizing Zero Growth of Energy Con-sumption in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):635-644(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZENG Sheng,HUANG Deng-shi.2009.Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Energy Efficiency on China[J].Quan-titative Economics and Tech-economics Research,(8):17-28(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHANG An-hua.2006.An analysis on factors of the energy con-servation and consumption reduction in China’s power indus-try[J].Electricity demand side management,8(6):1-4(in Chi-nese with English abstract).
ZHANG Yi-xiang,LIU Jie,CHENG Jin-hua.2009.Changing Trends and Adjusting Policies of China's Energy Efficiency:An Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of Heavy Indus-trial Structure[J].Chinese Journal of Management,6(6):818-822(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHENG Chang.2009.Analysis on the differences in energy effi-ciency among areas and the affecting factors[J].Jingxi Social Science,(9):101-104(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZOU Yu,WANG Gao-shang,YU Wen-jia,LIN Jian.2010.An Analysis of Sectorial Oil Consumption Track in Typical Coun-tries and Its Implications to China's Trend[J].Acta Geoscien-tica Sinica,31(5):666-672(in Chinese with English abstract).
何文强,汪明星.2009.全要素能源效率的DEA模型评价—基于中国1991-2007年数据的实证检验[J].上海商学院学报,10(5):92-96.
何祚庥.2010.我国节能减排的压力与对策[J].天然气技术,4(2):1-3.
李铭,王高尚,于汶加,刘占成.2010.中国石油资源安全评价[J].地球学报,31(5):686-692.
李晓明,王安建,于汶加.2010.基于能源需求理论的全球CO2排放趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):741-748.
李玉喜,张道勇,朱杰.2009.我国油气储量、产量增长趋势影响因素分析[J].地球学报,30(6):855-867.
刘占成,王安建,于汶加,李铭.2010.中国区域碳排放研究[J].地球学报,31(5):727-732.
王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,于汶加,周凤英,韩淑琴,闫强,张照志,牛建英,汪莉丽,耿诺.2008.能源与国家经济发展[M]北京:地质出版社.
王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,于汶加.2010.矿产资源需求理论与模型预测[J].地球学报,31(2):137-147.
王安建,王高尚,张建华,周凤英,韩淑琴,陈宣华,殷秀兰,韩梅.2002.矿产资源与国家经济发展[M].北京:地震出版社.
王安建.2010.世界资源格局与展望[J].地球学报,31(5):621-627.
王高尚,韩梅.2002.中国重要矿产需求预测[J].地球学报,23(6):483-490.
王高尚.2010.后危机时代矿产品价格趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):629-634.
王彦彭.2009.我国节能减排指标体系研究[J].煤炭经济研究,(2):31-33.
王彦彭.2010.我国节能减排进程的评价与比较[J].技术经济与管理研究,(3):116-121.
吴利学.2009.中国能源效率波动:理论解释、数值模拟及政策含义[J].经济研究,(5):130-142.
徐铭辰,王安建,陈其慎,杜雪明.2010.中国能源消费强度趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):720-726.
尹敬东,代秀梅.2009.单位GDP能源消耗与产业结构特征[J].产业经济研究,(5):67-73.
于汶加,王安建,王高尚.2010.中国能源消费“零增长”何时到来[J].地球学报,31(5):635-644.
曾胜,黄登仕.2009.中国能源消费、经济增长与能源效率——基于1980-2007年的实证分析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,(8):17-28.
张安华.2006.中国电力工业节能降耗影响因素分析[J].电力需求侧管理,8(6):1-4.
张意翔,刘捷,成金华.2009.我国能源效率变化趋势及调整政策——基于产业结构重型化视角的实证分析[J].管理学报,6(6):818-822.
郑畅.2009.能源效率的地区差异及其影响因素分析[J].江西社会科学,(9):101-104.
邹愉,王高尚,于汶加,林建.2010.典型国家部门石油消费轨迹及对中国的启示[J].地球学报,31(5):666-672.
ENERDATA.2010.Global Energy Intelligence[EB/OL].[2010-02-25]http://www.enerdata.net/evaluation/1230.asp.
HAN Xin-yang,WU Peng,GUO Li-jie,CHEN Lei,TAN Xian-dong,SHAN Bao-guo.2009.Analysis on Energy Conservation of Elec-tricity Power Industry in2008[J].Electric Power Technologic Economics,21(6):55-58(in Chinese with English abstract).
HE Wen-Qing,WANG Ming-xing.2009.Evaluation for the DEA Model in Calculating Total-Factor Energy Efficiency——An Empirical Test Based on China’s Data from1991to2007[J].Journal of Shanghai Business School,10(5):92-96(in Chinese with English abstract).
HE Zuo-xiu.2010.Pressure of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction and China’s Counter measures[J].Natural gas technology,4(2):1-3(in Chinese with English abstract).
IEA.2008a.World Energy Outlook2008[R].Paris:International Energy Agency.
IEA.2008b.Worldwide Trend in Energy Use and Efficiency[R].Paris:International Energy Agency.
LI Ming,WANG Gao-shang,YU Wen-jia,LIU Zhan-cheng.2010.An Evaluation of China's Oil Security[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):686-692(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Xiao-ming,WANG An-jian,YU Wen-jia.2010.A Trend Analy-sis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on the Energy De-mand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):741-748(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Yu-xi,ZHANG Dao-yong,ZHU Jie.2009.Factors that Affect the Increasing Trends of China’s Oil and Gas Reserves and Products[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,30(6):855-867(in Chi-nese with English abstract).
LIU Zhan-cheng,WANG An-jian,YU Wen-jia,LI Ming.2010.Research on Regional Carbon Emissions in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):727-732(in Chinese with English abstract).
PHILIP A S.2009.China's ongoing energy efficiency drive:Origins,progress and prospects[J].Energy policy,37(4):1331-1344.
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,YU Wen-jia,ZHOU Feng-ying,HAN Shu-qin,YAN Qiang,ZHANG Zhao-zhi,NIU Jian-ying,WANG Li-li,GENG Nuo.2008.En-ergy and national economic development[M].Beijing:Geo-logical Publishing House(in Chinese).
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,YU Wen-jia.2010.The mineral resources demand theory and the prediction model[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(2):137-147(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,ZHANG Jian-hua,ZHOU Feng-ying,HAN Shu-qin,CHEN Xuan-hua,YIN Xiu-lan,HAN Mei.2002.Mineral resources and national economic development[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press(in Chinese).
WANG An-jian.2010.Global Resource Structure and its Perspec-tive[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):621-627(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Gao-shang,HAN Mei.2002.The Prediction of the Demand on Important Mineral Resources in China[J].Acta Geoscien-tica Sinica,23(6):483-490(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Gao-shang.2010.Mineral Commodity Prices Trend in the Late Crisis Times[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):629-634(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Yan-peng.2009.A study on the indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of China[J].Coal eco-nomic research,(2):31-33(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Yan-peng.2010.The Evaluation and Comparison of Re-alization Degree on the Energy Saving and Emission Reduc-tion of China[J].Tech-economics and management study,(3):116-121(in Chinese with English abstract).
World Bank.2010.World Development Indicators[EB/OL].[2010-7-15]http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-dev-elopment-indicators.
World Energy Council.2008.Energy Efficiency Policies around the World:Review and Evaluation[R].London:World Energy Council.
World Energy Council.2010.World Energy Efficiency Indica-tors[EB/OL].[2010-6-20]http://www.worldenergy.org publi-cations/energy_efficiency_policies_around_the_world_review_and_evaluation/1230.asp.
WU Li-xue.2009.The Fluctuations of China’s Energy Efficiency:Theoretical Explains,Numerical Simulations and Policy Ex-periments[J].Economic Research,(5):130-142(in Chinese with English abstract).
XU Ming-chen,WANG An-jian,CHEN Qi-shen,DU Xue-ming.2010.Trend Analysis of China’s Energy Consumption Inten-sity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):720-726(in Chinese with English abstract).
YIN Jing-dong,DAI Xiu-mei.2009.Unit GDP Energy Consump-tion and Industrial Structure of Jiangsu[J].Industrial Econom-ics Research,(5):67-73(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Wen-jia,WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang.2010.A Predic-tion on the Time of Realizing Zero Growth of Energy Con-sumption in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):635-644(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZENG Sheng,HUANG Deng-shi.2009.Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Energy Efficiency on China[J].Quan-titative Economics and Tech-economics Research,(8):17-28(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHANG An-hua.2006.An analysis on factors of the energy con-servation and consumption reduction in China’s power indus-try[J].Electricity demand side management,8(6):1-4(in Chi-nese with English abstract).
ZHANG Yi-xiang,LIU Jie,CHENG Jin-hua.2009.Changing Trends and Adjusting Policies of China's Energy Efficiency:An Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of Heavy Indus-trial Structure[J].Chinese Journal of Management,6(6):818-822(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHENG Chang.2009.Analysis on the differences in energy effi-ciency among areas and the affecting factors[J].Jingxi Social Science,(9):101-104(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZOU Yu,WANG Gao-shang,YU Wen-jia,LIN Jian.2010.An Analysis of Sectorial Oil Consumption Track in Typical Coun-tries and Its Implications to China's Trend[J].Acta Geoscien-tica Sinica,31(5):666-672(in Chinese with English abstract).
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