微震预警冲击地压的时间序列方法
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摘要
基于工作面微震事件释能规律的统计分析,研究了微震能量随时间推移而变化的趋势,认为高能量微震事件是冲击地压发生的必要条件。以大同忻州窑煤矿为例,采用时间序列模型中的ARIMA季节性模型和门限自回归模型分别对未来微震事件释放能量进行预测,比较了两种方法的优缺点及适用条件;构建了微震能量方差变化的特征函数,基于此特征函数提出了冲击危险模式的识别方法。研究表明:周期性较为明显的高能量微震事件,ARIMA季节性模型能有效地预测未来微震释能趋势,而门限自回归模型适用于预测高能微震周期性非显著的释能趋势;微震能量方差变化特征函数判别准则能够对冲击地压进行有效预警。
Based on the statistical analysis of law of microseismic events releasing energy,researched the tendency of transformations of microseismic energy with the elapse of time,and deem that the high energy events are the necessary condition of coal burst.Taking Xinzhouyao Coal Mine of Datong City as an example,respectively applying the seasonal ARIMA model and threshold autoregressive model of time series models to forecast the microseismic events releasing energy in the future,and compared with the advantages and disadvantages of two methods and applicable conditions.The characteristic function of the variance change of the microseismic energy was constructed,and based on it,put forward a new recognition method for the risk model of coal burst.Research shows that ARIMA seasonal model can effectively predict the futural microseismic releasing energy in cyclical obvious high-energy microseismic events.However,the threshold autoregressive model is suitable to predict high microseismic energy releasing process of non-significant cyclical trend.The criterion of the characteristic function of microseismic energy variance can effectively predict coal burst.
Based on the statistical analysis of law of microseismic events releasing energy,researched the tendency of transformations of microseismic energy with the elapse of time,and deem that the high energy events are the necessary condition of coal burst.Taking Xinzhouyao Coal Mine of Datong City as an example,respectively applying the seasonal ARIMA model and threshold autoregressive model of time series models to forecast the microseismic events releasing energy in the future,and compared with the advantages and disadvantages of two methods and applicable conditions.The characteristic function of the variance change of the microseismic energy was constructed,and based on it,put forward a new recognition method for the risk model of coal burst.Research shows that ARIMA seasonal model can effectively predict the futural microseismic releasing energy in cyclical obvious high-energy microseismic events.However,the threshold autoregressive model is suitable to predict high microseismic energy releasing process of non-significant cyclical trend.The criterion of the characteristic function of microseismic energy variance can effectively predict coal burst.
引文
[1]姜耀东,赵毅鑫,刘文刚,等.煤岩冲击失稳的机理和实验研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
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[7]赵毅鑫.煤矿冲击地压机理研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学(北京),2006.
[8]陆菜平,窦林名,王耀峰,等.坚硬顶板诱发煤体冲击破坏的微震效应[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(3):450-456.Lu Caiping,Dou Linming,Wang Yaofeng,et al.Microseismic effectof coal materials rockburst failure induced by hand roof[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2010,53(3):450-456.
[9]杨叔子,吴雅,轩建平,等.时间序列分析的工程应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2007.
[10]Box G E P,Jenkins G M.Time series analysis,forecasting and con-trol[M].HoldenDay Inc.,1976.
[2]邹德蕴,姜福兴.煤岩体中储存能量与冲击地压孕育机理及预测方法的研究[J].煤炭学报,2004,29(2):159-163.Zou Deyun,Jiang Fuxing.Research of energy storing and gestationmechanism and forecasting of rockburst in the coal and rock mass[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2004,29(2):159-163.
[3]齐庆新,窦林名.冲击地压理论与技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2010.
[4]车用太,王琦,黄积刚,等.矿震及其前兆初探[J].中国地震,1993,9(4):334-340.Che Yongtai,Wang Qi,Huang Jigang,et al.Ming earthquake and itsprecursor[J].Earthquake Research in China,1993,9(4):334-340.
[5]何满潮.深部的概念体系及工程评价指标[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(16):2 854-2 858.He Manchao.Conception systemand evaluation indexes for deep en-gineering[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechnanics and Engineer-ing,2005,24(16):2 854-2 858.
[6]Young R P,Talebi S,Hutchins D A.et al Analysis of mining-in-duced microseismic events at Strathcona Mine,Subdury,Canada[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH,1989,129:3-4.
[7]赵毅鑫.煤矿冲击地压机理研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学(北京),2006.
[8]陆菜平,窦林名,王耀峰,等.坚硬顶板诱发煤体冲击破坏的微震效应[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(3):450-456.Lu Caiping,Dou Linming,Wang Yaofeng,et al.Microseismic effectof coal materials rockburst failure induced by hand roof[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2010,53(3):450-456.
[9]杨叔子,吴雅,轩建平,等.时间序列分析的工程应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2007.
[10]Box G E P,Jenkins G M.Time series analysis,forecasting and con-trol[M].HoldenDay Inc.,1976.
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