模糊综合评价法在堰塞湖风险评估中的应用
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摘要
基于风险理论,利用模糊数学方法,建立堰塞湖风险等级评价模型.该模型考虑堰塞体物质组成、堰塞体高度、库容、已有蓄水量以及风险人口、国民经济等6项风险指标,能够直观、快速地确定单座堰塞湖的风险等级,特别是对未蓄满库的堰塞湖有较好的适用性.以徐家坝堰塞湖为例,通过构造隶属函数确定评判矩阵R,根据改进的层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重集A,再由A和R线性变换得到综合决策向量B,最后根据最大隶属度原则确定堰塞湖的风险等级.
Based on risk theory,the model of risk assessment of dammed lake is established by the method of fuzzy mathematics.Taking into considering the six risk indicators—the material composition of the barrier,the height of the barrier,the storage capacity,the existing storage,the risk population and the national economy,the risk level of single-seat dammed lake can be determined visually and quickly,especially to the dammed lake not full of.Take the dammed lake at Xujiaba as an example,by constructing the membership function to determine the judgment matrix R,and improving the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index set A,the integrated decision-making vector B is obtained by linear transformation of A and R.Then the risk level can be determined according to the principle of maximum degree of membership.
Based on risk theory,the model of risk assessment of dammed lake is established by the method of fuzzy mathematics.Taking into considering the six risk indicators—the material composition of the barrier,the height of the barrier,the storage capacity,the existing storage,the risk population and the national economy,the risk level of single-seat dammed lake can be determined visually and quickly,especially to the dammed lake not full of.Take the dammed lake at Xujiaba as an example,by constructing the membership function to determine the judgment matrix R,and improving the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index set A,the integrated decision-making vector B is obtained by linear transformation of A and R.Then the risk level can be determined according to the principle of maximum degree of membership.
引文
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[2]严祖文,魏迎奇,蔡红.堰塞湖天然坝安全性状评估研究[J].水利水电技术,2009,40(2):74-77.YAN Zhu-wen,WEI Ying-qi,CAI Hong.Study onsafety assessment of natural dam[J].Water Resourcesand Hydropower Engineering,2009,40(2):74-77.
[3]崔鹏,韩用顺,陈晓清.汶川地震堰塞湖分布规律与风险评估[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2009,41(3):35-42.CUI Peng,HAN Yong-shun,CHEN Xiao-qing.Dis-tribution and risk analysis of dammed lakes reduced byWenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan Univer-sity(Engineering Science Edition),2009,41(3):35-42.
[4]乔路,杨兴国,周宏伟.模糊层次分析法的堰塞湖危险度判定——以杨家沟堰塞湖危险度综合评价为例[J].人民长江,2009,40(22):51-53.QIAO Lu,YANG Xing-guo,ZHOU Hong-wei.Deci-sion of risk degrees of dammed lakes using fuzzy ana-lytic hierarchy process[J].Yangtze River,2009,40(22):51-53.
[5]刘珊,姚刚,张雯.公路建设项目环境影响的多级模糊综合评价[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2007,27(1):80-83.LIU Shan,YAO Gang,ZHANG Wen.Fuzzy compre-hensive assessment of highway construction project im-pacts on environment[J].Journal of Chang an Univer-sity(Natural Science Edition),2007,27(1):80-83.
[6]Ertugrul K E,Sebnem A S.Fuzzy multi-criteria deci-sionmaking approach for transport projects evaluationin Istanbul[C]//International Conference on Computa-tional Science and Its Applications(ICCSA 2005).Sin-gapore:Springer,2005:301-311.
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