青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析
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摘要
根据孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与孕震时空区域划分四项基本原则,确定了青海、甘肃与宁夏地区地震区划分的合理方案,给出了各地震区未来强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明,除海原、共和、昆仑山口西地震区近期无破坏性地震发生,玉树地震区未来地震趋势目前还难以判定外,古浪、乌兰-大柴旦、玛多-阿坝地震区都将有破坏性地震发生,且都距临界点较近.
According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the four essential principles for dividing the seismogenic spatio-temporal scope, the rational division scheme of seismic zones in the Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia regions, China, is determined.Furthermore.The prediction including the magnitude, place, critical strain corresponding to the occurrence time, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone, is made using the above-mentioned method and principle.It is shown that the destructive earthquake will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Haiyuan, Gonghe and Kunlunshankouxi seismic zones, but that the seismic trend in the Yushu seismic zone is difficult to be judged at present.
According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the four essential principles for dividing the seismogenic spatio-temporal scope, the rational division scheme of seismic zones in the Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia regions, China, is determined.Furthermore.The prediction including the magnitude, place, critical strain corresponding to the occurrence time, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone, is made using the above-mentioned method and principle.It is shown that the destructive earthquake will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Haiyuan, Gonghe and Kunlunshankouxi seismic zones, but that the seismic trend in the Yushu seismic zone is difficult to be judged at present.
引文
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[2] 秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4) :1001～1014.Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, et al.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2010, 53 (4) :1001～1014
[3] 秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5) :873～880． Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P.Exponential laws of critical displacement evolution for landslides and avalanches[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010,29(5) :837～880．
[4] 秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3) :749～758． Qin S Q, Xue L, Wang Y Y, et al.Further verifications on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system and discussions on some science issues[J].Progress in Geophysic (in Chinese), 2010,25 (3) :749～758．
[5] Bufe C G, Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993, 98:9871～9883．
[6] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430．Peng K Y, Yin X C, He Y.Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis[J].Earthquake Research in China, 2003, 19 (4) :425～430．
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