基于GO法的应急管理系统可靠性分析
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摘要
应急管理系统是多状态系统,适合选用GO法进行可靠性分析。本文建立了应急管理系统GO图,给出了应急管理系统GO图操作符的计算方法,借助梯形模糊数理论将模糊语言转化为数学语言,最终形成了基于GO法的应急管理系统可靠性分析模型。通过实例分析表明GO法对应急管理系统可靠性分析是可行有效的。
Emergency management system is a multistate system,so it is feasible to use GO method to carry out reliability analysis on it.This paper establishes the GO figure for emergency management system,and gives the operators calculation method of GO figure for it.In the case of calculating operators' failure rate,trapezoidal fuzzy number theory is used to change fuzzy language into mathematical language.Finally the emergency management system reliability analysis model based on GO method is developed.Through the case analysis,it is proved that the reliability analysis model is feasible and efficient.
Emergency management system is a multistate system,so it is feasible to use GO method to carry out reliability analysis on it.This paper establishes the GO figure for emergency management system,and gives the operators calculation method of GO figure for it.In the case of calculating operators' failure rate,trapezoidal fuzzy number theory is used to change fuzzy language into mathematical language.Finally the emergency management system reliability analysis model based on GO method is developed.Through the case analysis,it is proved that the reliability analysis model is feasible and efficient.
引文
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[14]高清振,王耀华,张小楠,孙小波.GO法在航空应急系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].机械设计,2010,27(3):21~23.
[15]顾丽敏,王雨时,闻泉.GO法在引信系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].探测与控制学报,2007,29(5):34~38.
[16]高振清,孙厚芳,吴琼.基于GO法的制造系统可靠性分析[J].机械科学与技术,2007,26(3):320~323.
[17]张根保等.GO法在供应链可靠性诊断中的应用[J].重庆大学学报,2010,33(12):40~46.
[18]蔡鉴明,曾峰.基于GO法的供应链可靠性分析[J].公路交通科技,2007,24(3):141~144.
[19]何新贵.模糊知识处理的理论与技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.
[2]吴新燕,顾建华,王绍玉.提高纽约消防局的应急准备能力(续一)[J].城市与减灾,2003,1:8~12.
[3]左雄,官昌贵.突发自然灾害应急管理问题探讨[J].商业时代,2009,2:56~58.
[4]刘佳.珠江三角洲城市群地震灾害应急管理的问题分析及对策[J].国际地震动态,2006,10:39~44.
[5]李克荣.我国应急体系建设中的问题探讨与对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2005,1(5):52~55.
[6]王宏伟.汶川地震应急救援的成功经验及对完善我国应急管理的启示[J].防灾科技学院学报,2009,11(2):72~76.
[7]张忠利,刘春兰.中国城市应急管理体系的现状及完善[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2008,10(4):36~40.
[8]Kim J W,Jung W.A taxonomy of performanceinfluencing factors for human reliability analysis ofemergency tasks[J].Journal of Loss Prevention inthe Process Industries,2003,16(6):479~495.
[9]Jung W D,et al.Structured information analysisfor human reliability analysis of emergency tasks innuclear power plants[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2001,71(1):21~32.
[10]Beveridge R,et al.Reliability of the Canadianemergency department triage and acuity scale:Interrater agreement[J].Annals of EmergencyMedicine,1999,34(2):155~159.
[11]沈祖培,高仕.GO法原理和改进的定量分析方法[J].清华大学学报,1999,39(6):15~19.
[12]沈祖培,黄祥瑞,高佳.可修系统可靠性分析中GO法的应用[J].核动力工程,2000,21(5):456~461.
[13]沈祖培,郑涛.复杂系统可靠性的GO法精确算法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2002,42(5):569~572.
[14]高清振,王耀华,张小楠,孙小波.GO法在航空应急系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].机械设计,2010,27(3):21~23.
[15]顾丽敏,王雨时,闻泉.GO法在引信系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].探测与控制学报,2007,29(5):34~38.
[16]高振清,孙厚芳,吴琼.基于GO法的制造系统可靠性分析[J].机械科学与技术,2007,26(3):320~323.
[17]张根保等.GO法在供应链可靠性诊断中的应用[J].重庆大学学报,2010,33(12):40~46.
[18]蔡鉴明,曾峰.基于GO法的供应链可靠性分析[J].公路交通科技,2007,24(3):141~144.
[19]何新贵.模糊知识处理的理论与技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.
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