2008汶川大地震极端滑坡事件初步研究
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摘要
为了分析汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害事件强度和影响,本文以汶川地震诱发滑坡极端事件为线索,在统计分析前10个规模最大、位移最远、危害最重及最大滑坡堰塞湖分布特征的基础上,重点研究前三甲极端滑坡事件的简要特征,初步揭示:(1)汶川地震诱发的极端滑坡事件主要沿龙门山中央断裂(映秀—北川断裂带)和Ⅹ-Ⅺ高烈度地段分布,强震的振动力、地震主传播方向和发震断裂NE向扩展作用是启动极端滑坡事件的主要原因;(2)规模最大的前10个滑坡和距离最大的前10个高速远程滑坡具有很好的重合特征,两者都反映汶川地震诱发的高能量滑坡事件;其中,规模最大的绵竹市安县大光包滑坡,初步估算体积约7.42×108m3,最大运动距离达到3.5km,距离排名第二;距离最大的绵竹文家沟高速远程滑坡,初步估算最大位移为4.2km,其体积约1.5×108m3,规模排名第二,这两个滑坡都属于世界上罕见的大型高能量高速远程滑坡;(3)前10个最大的灾难性滑坡事件,累计导致3751人死亡,单个滑坡引起的人员死亡超过100人,最多的达到1600人,属于世界上罕见的灾难性滑坡事件;(4)潜在危险性最大的10个滑坡堰塞湖,曾经威胁几十万人的生活安全,其中,最大的北川唐家山滑坡堰塞湖,曾经威胁下游绵阳市30万人的生活安全,这些滑坡堰塞湖都及时采取人工开挖措施排除了潜在危险。
In order to analyze the intensity and influence of landslides triggered by the great Wenchuan earthquake,a central idea in this paper is to focus on the first 3 extreme landslide events among the first 10 landslides with the largest volume,the longest sliding run-out,the most serious hazard and the largest landslide-dammed lake.The followings are revealed:(1)the extreme landslides are mainly distributed along the Longmenshan central fault and in the areas with high intensity of Ⅹ-Ⅺ;the strong vibration force,the main propagation direction of earthquake and the NE expansion of seismic fault are the major reasons for the initiation of extreme landslide events;(2)generally,the first 10 landslides both have the largest volume and the longest sliding long run-out,among them,the Daguangbao landslide,located at Anxian county,Mianzhu city,is the first one,with the volume of 742 million m3 and the sliding long run-out of 3.5 km;the second one is the Wenjiagou landslide in Qingping county,Mianzhu city,with the volume of 150 million m3 and the sliding run-out of 4.2 km.The above two landslides are all rare rapid and long run-out landslides with high energy in the world;(3)the first 10 catastrophic landslides totally caused 3751 deaths,and over 100 deaths are due to individual event,with the maximum of 1600;(4)the first 10 landslide-dammed lakes with potential risk had threatened the lives safety for hundreds of thousands of people;among them,the Tangjiashan dammed lake is the largest one,which had imperiled 0.3 million people's life of Mianyang city;fortunately,timely measures such as artificial excavation had been taken for removing of potential risk.
引文
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