科学认识大地震
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摘要
笔者从汶川大地震的成因出发,根据地震序列的类型、发生大地震的时间尺度和都江堰-江油断裂带对地震波的消减,以及成都平原特殊的地壳结构,认为发生大地震或大余震对成都平原的影响有限。在大地震后,随着地壳应力场的改变,可能在成都平原引发小地震,应加强对熊坡活动断裂等的监测,以及附近房地产等工程建设的管理,提高民众的防震意识。地震宏观前兆异常并不是都很明显。单一动物的异常行为,如蟾蜍或青蛙迁徙,不能构成预测地震的依据。大地震诱因是很复杂的,现阶段的科学技术还不能准确预测地震。
In the light of the types of seismic sequences,time scales of earthquake inductions,waning of seismic waves in the Dujiangyan-Jiangyou fault and crustal structures of the Chengdu plain,the authors contend that the Wenchuan earthquake and subsequent aftershocks have a highly limited effect on the Chengdu plain due to the changes of the crustal stress fields.Particular attention should be drawn to the monitoring of the Xiongpo active fault and the management of construction sites.In general,the macroseismic premonitory anomalies are not always prone to be obviously observed.The anomalous habits of animals,e.g.the migration of toads and frogs,can't be considered as the basis for earthquake forecast.The earthquake inductions remain unclear.Therefore it is impossible for us to predict earthquakes with accuracy at present.
In the light of the types of seismic sequences,time scales of earthquake inductions,waning of seismic waves in the Dujiangyan-Jiangyou fault and crustal structures of the Chengdu plain,the authors contend that the Wenchuan earthquake and subsequent aftershocks have a highly limited effect on the Chengdu plain due to the changes of the crustal stress fields.Particular attention should be drawn to the monitoring of the Xiongpo active fault and the management of construction sites.In general,the macroseismic premonitory anomalies are not always prone to be obviously observed.The anomalous habits of animals,e.g.the migration of toads and frogs,can't be considered as the basis for earthquake forecast.The earthquake inductions remain unclear.Therefore it is impossible for us to predict earthquakes with accuracy at present.
引文
[1]周文林.汉代至民国成都、阿坝、广元、绵阳、德阳地震灾害[J].四川档案,2008,(3):57-59.
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[10]周荣军,李勇,Densmore A L,等.青藏高原东缘活动构造[J].矿物岩石,2006,26(2):40-51.
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[12]吴刚.龙门山推覆构造带与地震活动[J].地震研究,1992,15(3):291-297.
[13]冯海燕.5.12汶川地震及其山地所科技抗震救灾[J].山地学报,2008,26(3):283-285.
[14]谷继成.地震类型的判别与强地震的预测[J].地震,1987,(6):1-9.
[15]周仕勇,许忠淮.地震序列研究综述[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):268-277.
[16]韩渭宾,蒋国芳.川滇地区较长时间尺度的地震活动盛衰交替性[J].地震,2005,25(1):51-57.
[17]余团,何昌荣.龙门山构造带区域稳定性探讨[J].地震研究,2000,23(4):378-383.
[18]江道崇.龙门山地震带地震活动特征的研究[J].四川地震,1995,(4):10-18.
[19]龙小霞,延军虎,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.
[20]黄子波.川滇地区强烈地震预报研究[J].四川地震,1994,(1):9-13.
[21]GELLER R J,JACKSON D D,KAGAN Y Y et al.Enhanced:Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616-1617.
[22]WYSS M.Cannot earthquakes be predicted?[J]Science,1997,278(5337):487-490.
[23]邓连印,崔乃刚.月球探测发展历程及启示[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2008,10(3):14-19.
[2]刘蒲雄,黄德瑜,杨懋全,等.地震类型和震源机制[J].地球物理学报,1983,26(3):237-248.
[3]潘桂棠.汶川八级地震的区域地质构造背景[J].决策咨询通讯,2008,(3):1-8.
[4]HSU K J.Thin-skinned plate-tectonic model for collision-typeorogenesis[J].Scientia Sinica(Ser.A),1981,24(1):100-110.
[5]王振荣,兰江华.四川汶川大地震的构造分析[J].矿物岩石,2008,28(2):1-5.
[6]唐荣昌,韩渭宾.四川活动断裂与地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[7]黄润秋.5.12汶川大地震地质灾害的基本特征及其对灾后重建影响的建议[J].中国地质教育,2008,(2):21-24.
[8]陈智梁,刘宇平,张选阳,等.全球定位系统测量与青藏高原东流变构造[J].第四纪研究,1998,(3):262-270.
[9]刘兴诗.汶川大地震的回顾与反思[J].成都理工大学学报,2008,16(2):1-6.
[10]周荣军,李勇,Densmore A L,等.青藏高原东缘活动构造[J].矿物岩石,2006,26(2):40-51.
[11]卢华复,贾东,王良书,等.关于汶川地震发震机制[J].高校地质学报,2008,14(2):133-138.
[12]吴刚.龙门山推覆构造带与地震活动[J].地震研究,1992,15(3):291-297.
[13]冯海燕.5.12汶川地震及其山地所科技抗震救灾[J].山地学报,2008,26(3):283-285.
[14]谷继成.地震类型的判别与强地震的预测[J].地震,1987,(6):1-9.
[15]周仕勇,许忠淮.地震序列研究综述[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):268-277.
[16]韩渭宾,蒋国芳.川滇地区较长时间尺度的地震活动盛衰交替性[J].地震,2005,25(1):51-57.
[17]余团,何昌荣.龙门山构造带区域稳定性探讨[J].地震研究,2000,23(4):378-383.
[18]江道崇.龙门山地震带地震活动特征的研究[J].四川地震,1995,(4):10-18.
[19]龙小霞,延军虎,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.
[20]黄子波.川滇地区强烈地震预报研究[J].四川地震,1994,(1):9-13.
[21]GELLER R J,JACKSON D D,KAGAN Y Y et al.Enhanced:Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616-1617.
[22]WYSS M.Cannot earthquakes be predicted?[J]Science,1997,278(5337):487-490.
[23]邓连印,崔乃刚.月球探测发展历程及启示[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2008,10(3):14-19.
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