城市供水管网脆弱性评价研究进展
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摘要
脆弱性评价有助于甄别城市供水管网的薄弱环节,确定合理的风险削减措施,保证供水安全。阐述脆弱性的有关定义及其与风险的联系与区别,回顾城市供水管网脆弱性评价的发展历程,介绍几种脆弱性评价方法的基本原理、优缺点及适用范围,并按不同评价思路对国内外使用的主要脆弱性评价方法进行分类总结。研究发现,目前尚未形成统一的脆弱性概念及切实可行的评价方法,今后应不断完善和整合各类方法,以定量和通用为核心,使城市供水管网脆弱性评价方法更为实用、有效。
It was held that vulnerability assessment of urban water supply network can help to test the weakness existed in the entire system,to determine a reasonable way to reduce risk,and to guarantee water supply security.Firstly,the definitions related to vulnerability and basic content in urban water supply network were expounded,the links and differences between vulnerability and risk were analyzed.Then,the development course of vulnerability assessment of urban water supply network was reviewed.The basic principles,advantages and disadvantages,and applicability of several assessment methods were introduced.And the main assessment methods used at home and abroad were classified and summarized in terms of evaluation idea.It was concluded that a uniform concept of vulnerability and a practical evaluation method have not formed,that much effort should be spent on continuous improvement and integration of the methods,and that quantitative and all-purpose methods should be taken as the core of the development.
It was held that vulnerability assessment of urban water supply network can help to test the weakness existed in the entire system,to determine a reasonable way to reduce risk,and to guarantee water supply security.Firstly,the definitions related to vulnerability and basic content in urban water supply network were expounded,the links and differences between vulnerability and risk were analyzed.Then,the development course of vulnerability assessment of urban water supply network was reviewed.The basic principles,advantages and disadvantages,and applicability of several assessment methods were introduced.And the main assessment methods used at home and abroad were classified and summarized in terms of evaluation idea.It was concluded that a uniform concept of vulnerability and a practical evaluation method have not formed,that much effort should be spent on continuous improvement and integration of the methods,and that quantitative and all-purpose methods should be taken as the core of the development.
引文
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[24]张卫民.基于风险管理的泰达水安全计划研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.ZHANG Wei-min.Research on Taida Water Safe Plan Based on Risk Management[D].Tianjin:TianjinUniversity,2010.
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[26]Consuelo J S.Modeling Threat Assessment of Water Supply Systems using Markov Latent Effects Methodology[R].US:Sandia National Laboratories,2006.
[27]牛志广,陈发,徐宗武,等.基于MLE模型和EPANET的城市供水系统风险评价[J].中国给水排水,2011,27(7):63-64.NIU Zhi-guang,CHEN Fa,XU Zong-wu,et al.Risk assessment of urban water supply systems based on MLE model andEPANET software[J].China Water&Wastewater,2011,27(7):63-64.
[28]陈发.面向投毒威胁的城市配水系统风险评价方法研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.CHEN Fa.Study on Risk Assessment Method of Water Distribution System Based on Poison Threat[D].Tianjin:TianjinUniversity,2010.
[29]Pinto J,Varum H,Bentes I,et al.A theory of vulnerability of water pipe network(TVWPN)[J].Water ResourManage,2010,24(15):4 237-4 254.
[30]Bentes I,Afonso L,Varum H,et al.A new tool to assess water pipe networks vulnerability and robustness[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2011,18(7):1 637-1 644.
[31]Tularam G A,P M.An investigation into modern water distribution network security:Risk and implications[J].SecurityJournal,2011,24(4):283-301
[32]吴众华,张土乔,黄亚东,等.给水管网脆弱性评价[J].中国给排水,2010,26(5):59-62.WU Zhong-hua,ZHANG Tu-qiao,HUANG Ya-dong,et al.Vulnerability assessment of water distribution system[J].China Water&Wastewater,2010,26(5):59-62.
[33]赵元.输配水系统的脆弱性及风险评估研究[D].天津:天津大学,2009.ZHAO Yuan.Study on Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Distribution System[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2009.
[34]王宇飞.供水管网地震脆弱性评价方法的研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.WANG Yu-fei.Study on the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Method of Water Supply Pipelines[D].Tianjin:TianjinUniversity,2010.
[2]Hokstad P,Rostum J,Sklet S,et al.Methods for risk analysis of drinking water systems from source to tap[R].US:Techneau,2009.
[3]鲁娟.给水管网脆弱性评估研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2007.LU Juan.Study on the Evaluation of Water Supply Network Vulnerability[D].Hefei:Hefei University of Technology,2007.
[4]马力辉,刘遂庆,信昆仑.供水系统脆弱性评价研究进展[J].给水排水,2006,32(9):107-110.MA Li-hui,LIU Sui-qing,XIN Kun-lun.The development of vulnerability assessment of water supply system[J].Water&Wastewater Engineering,2006,32(9):107-110.
[5]Timmerman P.Vulnerability,Resilience and the Collapse of Society:A Review of Models and Possible Climatic Applica-tions[M].Toronto:Institute for Environmental Studies,University of Toronto,1981:1-10.
[6]李莉,王晓婷,王辉.脆弱性内涵、评价与研究趋势综述[J].中国渔业经济,2010,28(3):161-168.LI Li,WANG Xiao-ting,WANG Hui.Review of content,evaluation and research trends of vulnerability[J].ChineseFisheries Economics,2010,28(3):161-168.
[7]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):18-24.LI He,ZHANG Ping-yu,CHENG Ye-qing.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability[J].Progress in Geogra-phy,2008,27(3):18-24.
[8]李浩宾.城市供水系统脆弱性研究[D].天津:天津大学,2009.LI Hao-bin.Study on Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Water Supply System[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2009.
[9]Peng L H.Hierarchical Risk Assessment of Water Supply Systems[D].Loughborough:Loughborough University,2007.
[10]邵传青.重要基础设施脆弱性评价模型—以天津市供水系统为例[D].天津:南开大学,2009.SHAO Chuan-qing.Vulnerability Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure-water Supply System in Tianjin as anExample[D].Tianjin:Nankai University,2009.
[11]US Congress.Public health security and bioterrism preparedness and response act of 2002[OL].[2002-06-12].http://www.epa.gov/safewater/watersecurity/pubs/security_act.pdf.
[12]科学技术部.可持续发展科技纲要(2001—2010年)[OL].[2002-08-14].http://www.fjkjt.gov.cn/info/im-age/21808.doc.Ministry of Science and Technology.Sustainable Development of Science and Technology Program(2001-2010)[OL].[2002-08-14].http://www.fjkjt.gov.cn/info/image/21808.doc.
[13]Ezell B C,Farr J V,Wiese I.Infrastructure risk analysis of municipal water distribution system[J].Journal of Infra-structure Systems,2000,6(3):118-122.
[14]Ezell B C.Toward a systems-based vulnerability assessment methodology for water supply system[C].Risk-Based Desi-sionmaking in Water Resources X:Proceeding of the 10th United Engineering Foundation Conference.Santa Barbara,California,2002:91-103.
[15]Ezell B C.Infrastructure vulnerability assessment model[J].Risk Analysis,2007,27(3):571-583.
[16]邵传青,易立新.重要基础设施脆弱性评价模型及其应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(11):153-159.SHAO Chuan-qing,YI Li-xin.Vulnerability assessment model for critical infrastructure and its application[J].ChinaSafety Science Journal,2008,18(11):153-159.
[17]Jaeger C D,Hightower M M,Torres T.Evolution of Sandia’s risk assessment methodology for water and wastewater utili-ties(RAM-WTM)[C].Richard N P.World Environmental and Water Resources Congress.Curran Associates Inc,2010:3 804-3 810.
[18]Murray R,Janke R,Uber J.The threat ensemble vulnerability assessment(TEVA)program for drinking water distribu-tion system security[C].Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management:World WaterCongress,2004:1-8.
[19]Davison A.Water Safety Plans-Managing Drinking Water Quality from Catchment to Consumer[M].Geneva:WorldHealth Organization,2005:1-12.
[20]Gunnarsdóttir M J,Gardarsson S M,Bartram J.Icelandic experience with water safety plans[J].Water Science andTechnology,2012,65(2):277-288.
[21]WHO.Water Safety Plans[OL].[2011-09-30].http://www.who.int/entity/water_sanitation_health/publications/2011/9789241548151_ch04.pdf.
[22]陆坤明.WHO“饮用水水质准则”第三版(2004)“水安全计划”简介[J].净水技术,2006,25(6):21-26.LU Kun-ming.WHO“Guidelines for drinking water quality”third edition(2004),brief introduction of“water safetypaln”[J].Water Purification Technology,2006,25(6):21-26.
[23]姜凡晓,李洪兴,张荣.饮水安全计划在城市供水系统中应用效果评价[J].中国公共卫生,2008,24(7):860-861.JIANG Fan-xiao,LI Hong-xing,ZHANG Rong.Drinking water safety plan in the urban water supply system applicationeffect evaluation[J].China Public Health,2008,24(7):860-861.
[24]张卫民.基于风险管理的泰达水安全计划研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.ZHANG Wei-min.Research on Taida Water Safe Plan Based on Risk Management[D].Tianjin:TianjinUniversity,2010.
[25]Vincent C T,Consuelo J S,Sariah J.An integrated approach to vulnerability assessment[C].Impacts of Global ClimateChange:World Water and Environmental Resources Congress.Anchorage,AK,2005:79-90.
[26]Consuelo J S.Modeling Threat Assessment of Water Supply Systems using Markov Latent Effects Methodology[R].US:Sandia National Laboratories,2006.
[27]牛志广,陈发,徐宗武,等.基于MLE模型和EPANET的城市供水系统风险评价[J].中国给水排水,2011,27(7):63-64.NIU Zhi-guang,CHEN Fa,XU Zong-wu,et al.Risk assessment of urban water supply systems based on MLE model andEPANET software[J].China Water&Wastewater,2011,27(7):63-64.
[28]陈发.面向投毒威胁的城市配水系统风险评价方法研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.CHEN Fa.Study on Risk Assessment Method of Water Distribution System Based on Poison Threat[D].Tianjin:TianjinUniversity,2010.
[29]Pinto J,Varum H,Bentes I,et al.A theory of vulnerability of water pipe network(TVWPN)[J].Water ResourManage,2010,24(15):4 237-4 254.
[30]Bentes I,Afonso L,Varum H,et al.A new tool to assess water pipe networks vulnerability and robustness[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2011,18(7):1 637-1 644.
[31]Tularam G A,P M.An investigation into modern water distribution network security:Risk and implications[J].SecurityJournal,2011,24(4):283-301
[32]吴众华,张土乔,黄亚东,等.给水管网脆弱性评价[J].中国给排水,2010,26(5):59-62.WU Zhong-hua,ZHANG Tu-qiao,HUANG Ya-dong,et al.Vulnerability assessment of water distribution system[J].China Water&Wastewater,2010,26(5):59-62.
[33]赵元.输配水系统的脆弱性及风险评估研究[D].天津:天津大学,2009.ZHAO Yuan.Study on Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Distribution System[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2009.
[34]王宇飞.供水管网地震脆弱性评价方法的研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.WANG Yu-fei.Study on the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Method of Water Supply Pipelines[D].Tianjin:TianjinUniversity,2010.
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