基于分形理论的电力系统负荷特性研究
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摘要
掌握电力负荷特性的变化规律是建立负荷预测模型的关键。分形理论是近年来发展起来的新兴非线性系统理论,把分形理论应用于电力负荷特性的分析研究中,通过对电力系统负荷曲线进行分析,得出电力系统负荷变化具有一定的周期性规律。运用分形理论,分维数表明:相同空间状态下电力系统负荷具有自相似性;相同时间尺度下电力系统负荷具有自相似性,并对电力负荷分形特性的稳定性进行了论证,从而证明了分形理论应用于负荷预测的可行性和合理性,为将分形理论应用于电力系统负荷预测提供了理论依据。
Grasping the change of power load characteristic is the key to establish load forecasting model.Fractal theory is a non-linear system theory which has been developed in recent years,fractal theory have been applied to research of load characteristic.To analyses the loads curve of electrical power systems,the periodic law can be found from power loads variation.Through applying fractal theory to fractal dimension,the results indicate that power loads possess self-similarity in terms of same space state,same time scale,also proves the stability of the load fractal characteristic.Power loads curve is investigated and it is found that the power loads have the feasibility and rationality of applying fractal theory is proved.
Grasping the change of power load characteristic is the key to establish load forecasting model.Fractal theory is a non-linear system theory which has been developed in recent years,fractal theory have been applied to research of load characteristic.To analyses the loads curve of electrical power systems,the periodic law can be found from power loads variation.Through applying fractal theory to fractal dimension,the results indicate that power loads possess self-similarity in terms of same space state,same time scale,also proves the stability of the load fractal characteristic.Power loads curve is investigated and it is found that the power loads have the feasibility and rationality of applying fractal theory is proved.
引文
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[2]胡屏,柏军,兰华,等.到基于分形理论的电力系统负荷几何特性研究[J].东北电力学院学报,2002,22(4):48-52.
[3]MARTINTH,SUZANNE M B.The Time Series Approach to short-term Load Forecasting[J].IEEE Trans on Power System,1987,2(3):527-531.
[4]刘衡郁.我国股市分形特征研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2002.
[5]陈颓,陈凌.分形几何学[M].北京:地震出版社,2005.
[6]萧国泉,王春,张福伟.电力负荷预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2001.
[7]朱华,姬翠翠.分形理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[8]DALLA L.Bivariate Fractal Interpolation Functions on Grids[J].Fractals,2002,10(l):53-58.
[9]TSAKOUMIS A C,FESSAS P,MLADENOV V M,et al.Application of Chaotic Time Series for Short-term Load Prediction[J].WSEAS Trans on Systems,2003,2(3):517-523.
[10]李翔,乔艳芬.分形理论下的电力负荷特性分析[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(10):67-70.
[11]牛东晓,曹树华,等.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2009.
[12]ARANGO H G,deSOUZA ACZ,LAMBERT-OTRRES G,et al.Difference Between Regular and Deterministic Chaos Processes Based on Time Analysis of Load:AnExample Using CEMIG Data[J].Electric Power Systems Research,2000,56(1):35-41.
[13]方仍存.电力系统负荷区间预测[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2008.
[14]赵希正,周小谦,姜绍俊.中国电力负荷特性分析与预测1M2[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[15]沈哗华,马波,刘峰,等.基于分形理论的电力系统负荷特性研究[J].浙江电力,2007,2:15-17.
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