基于可靠性方法的储层钻井坍塌压力分析
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摘要
结合可靠性方法及Hoek-Brown准则,推导出了煤层钻井坍塌压力的可靠度计算公式,选取了控制煤层井壁坍塌的随机变量,并采用室内实验方法确定随机变量的Weibull分布类型。以沁水盆地ZP-01井为例,分析了坍塌压力可靠度结果与Hoek-Brown准则定值法结果和Mohr-Coulomb准则定值法结果的差别,讨论了坍塌压力可靠度结果与随机变量个数及变异系数的关系。结果表明,ZP-01井坍塌压力的可靠度结果分别较Hoek-Brown准则定值法结果和Mohr-Coulomb准则定值法结果提高2.77%和4.82%;可靠度结果与随机变量变异系数呈非线性正相关关系;随机变量个数减少,可靠度预测结果略有减小。定值法相对偏小的坍塌压力预测结果使得ZP-01井551.45～552 m煤层段发生井壁坍塌,而可靠度预测结果大于定值法,这表明可靠度方法可以进一步提高煤层坍塌压力的预测精度。
Integrated with a reliability method and the Hoek-Brown criterion,we deduced a reliability calculation formula for collapse pressure in coal seam drilling.Random variables dominating collapse pressure in coal seam drilling were selected and the corresponding Weibull distribution type of these variables was determined with indoor experiment methods.Taking a coal seam from Well ZP-01 in the Qinshui Basin as an example,we compared differences between the reliability result of collapse pressure and that derived from the value analysis method according to the Hoek-Brown and Mohr-Coulomb criteria,and discussed the correlation between the reliability result of collapse pressure and the number of random variables as well as the variation coefficient.The result shows that the reliability result of collapse pressure in Well ZP-01 is 2.77% and 4.82% higher than that derived from the value analysis method according to the Hoek-Brown and Mohr-Coulomb criteria,respectively.There exists a nonlinear positive correlation between the reliability result and the variation coefficient of random variables,and the reliability prediction result decreases slightly with decreasing the number of random variables.A relatively smaller prediction result of collapse pressure derived from the value analysis method resulted in the collapse of coal seam at depth from 551.45 m to 552 m in Well ZP-01,while the reliability prediction result of collapse pressure greater than that derived from the value analysis method implied that the proposed reliability method of collapse pressure could further improve the prediction accuracy of collapse pressure in coal seam drilling.
Integrated with a reliability method and the Hoek-Brown criterion,we deduced a reliability calculation formula for collapse pressure in coal seam drilling.Random variables dominating collapse pressure in coal seam drilling were selected and the corresponding Weibull distribution type of these variables was determined with indoor experiment methods.Taking a coal seam from Well ZP-01 in the Qinshui Basin as an example,we compared differences between the reliability result of collapse pressure and that derived from the value analysis method according to the Hoek-Brown and Mohr-Coulomb criteria,and discussed the correlation between the reliability result of collapse pressure and the number of random variables as well as the variation coefficient.The result shows that the reliability result of collapse pressure in Well ZP-01 is 2.77% and 4.82% higher than that derived from the value analysis method according to the Hoek-Brown and Mohr-Coulomb criteria,respectively.There exists a nonlinear positive correlation between the reliability result and the variation coefficient of random variables,and the reliability prediction result decreases slightly with decreasing the number of random variables.A relatively smaller prediction result of collapse pressure derived from the value analysis method resulted in the collapse of coal seam at depth from 551.45 m to 552 m in Well ZP-01,while the reliability prediction result of collapse pressure greater than that derived from the value analysis method implied that the proposed reliability method of collapse pressure could further improve the prediction accuracy of collapse pressure in coal seam drilling.
引文
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[15]金衍,陈勉.利用地震记录钻前预测井壁稳定性研究[J].石油学报,2004,25(1):89-92.Jin Yan,Chen Mian.Prediction of borehole stability by seismicrecords[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2004,25(1):89-92.
[16]金衍,陈勉,张旭东.钻前井壁稳定预测方法的研究[J].石油学报,2001,22(3):96-99.Jin Yan,Chen Mian,Zhang Xudong.Study on prediction for boreholestability before drilling[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2001,22(3):96-99.
[17]吴超,陈勉,金衍.基于地震属性技术的井壁稳定随钻预测新方法[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2007,31(6):141-146.Wu Chao,Chen Mian,Jin Yan.A new method of predicting bore-hole stability while drilling based on seismic attribute technology[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum:Edition of NaturalScience,2007,31(6):141-146.
[18]闫相祯,邓卫东,高进伟,等.套管钻井中套管柱疲劳可靠性及相关力学特性研究[J].石油学报,2009,30(5):769-773.Yan Xiangzhen,Deng Weidong,Gao Jinwei,et al.Analysis onmechanics and fatigue reliability of casing string during casingdrilling[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2009,30(5):769-773.
[19]闫相祯,高进伟,杨秀娟.用可靠性理论解析API套管强度的计算公式[J].石油学报,2007,28(1):122-125.Yan Xiangzhen,Gao Jinwei,Yang Xiujuan.Analysis of API for-mulas and calculation of casing strength based on reliability theo-ry[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2007,28(1):122-125.
[20]Hoek E,Brown E T.Practical estimates of rock mass strength[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sci-ences and Geomechanics Abstracts,1997,34(8):1165-1186.
[21]Hoek E,Carranza-Torres C,Corkum B.Hoek-Brown failure cri-terion-2002 Edition:proc.NARMS-TAC Conference[C].Toron-to:University of Toronto,2002:267-273.
[22]Hoek E,Marinos P,Benissi M.Applicability of the geological strengthindex(GSI)classification for very weak and sheared rock masses:thecase of the Athens Schist Formation[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geolo-gy and the Environment,1998,57(2):151-160.
[23]Marinos P,Hoek E.GSI:ageologically friendly tool for rock massstrength estimation:proc.GeoEng2000,Melbourne[C].Lancas-ter:Technomic Publishing Company,2000:1422-1442.
[24]Marinos V,Marinos P,Hoek E.The geological strength index:applications and limitations[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geologyand the Environment,2005,64(1):55-65.
[25]张立松,闫相祯,杨恒林,等.基于测井信息的煤岩GSI-JP破碎分级预测[J].岩土工程学报,2011,33(7):1091-1096.Zhang Lisong,Yan Xiangzhen,Yang Henglin,et al.GSI-JPcrushed classification prediction method of coal rock based onlogging information[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engi-neering,2011,33(7):1091-1096.
[26]张毅,闫相祯,颜庆智.三维分层地应力模型与井眼岩石破裂准则[J].西安石油学院学报:自然科学版,2000,15(4):42-43.Zhang Yi,Yan Xiangzhen,Yan Qingzhi.3D model for the strati-fied calculation of ground stress and fracture criterion of wellholerock[J].Journal of Xi’an Petroleum Institute:Natural ScienceEdition,2000,15(4):42-43.
[2]Addis M A,Barton N R,Bandis S C,et al.Laboratory studies on thestability of vertical and deviated boreholes[R].SPE20406,1990.
[3]Maloney S,Kaiser P K.Results of borehole breakout simulationtests[J].Rock at Great Depth,1989,2:745-752.
[4]Hojka K,Dusseault M B.An analytical solution for the steady-state temperature and stress fields around a borehole during fluidinjection[R].SPE21632,1990.
[5]Maury V,Idelovici J L.Safe drilling of HP/HT wells,the role ofthe thermal regime in loss and gain phenomenon[R].SPE29428,1995.
[6]王炳印,邓金根,宋念友.力学温度和化学耦合作用下泥页岩地层井壁失稳研究[J].钻采工艺,2006,29(6):1-4.Wang Bingyin,Deng Jingen,Song Nianyou.Effects of tempera-ture,chemical and percolation on wellbore instability in shale[J].Drilling&Production Technology,2006,29(6):1-4.
[7]蔚宝华,闫伟,李斌,等.高陡层理性地层井壁稳定性模拟试验研究[J].石油钻采工艺,2009,31(2):48-50.Yu Baohua,Yan Wei,Li Bin,et al.Mechanical borehole stabilitytest study in highly-dipped laminated formation[J].Oil Drilling&Production Technology,2009,31(2):48-50.
[8]蔚宝华,王炳印,曲从锋,等.高温高压储层安全钻井液密度窗口确定技术[J].石油钻采工艺,2005,27(3):31-37.Yu Baohua,Wang Bingyin,Qu Congfeng,et al.Mud density de-termination of HT/HP reservoir formation[J].Oil Drilling&Production Technology,2005,27(3):31-37.
[9]王炳印,蔚宝华,邓金根.温度及渗流对疏松砂岩储层钻井液密度窗口的影响规律研究[J].钻井液与完井液,2005,22(4):40-42.Wang Bingyin,Yu Baohua,Deng Jingen.Temperature and seepageeffects on safe mud window of unconsolidated sand reservoir forma-tion[J].Drilling Fluid&Completion Fluid,2005,22(4):40-42.
[10]邓金根,张洪生.钻井工程中井壁失稳的力学机理[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1998:10.Deng Jingen,Zhang Hongsheng.Mechanical mechanism of side-wall instability in drilling engineering[M].Beijing:Petroleum In-dustry Press,1998:10.
[11]刘玉石.地层坍塌压力及井壁稳定对策研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(14):2421-2423.Liu Yushi.Collapse pressure and precautions for stability ofwellbore wall[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engi-neering,2004,23(14):2421-2423.
[12]吕开河,孙明波,邱正松.塔里木盆地依奇克里克区块煤层钻井技术研究[J].石油学报,2006,27(5):108-111.LüKaihe,Sun Mingbo,Qiu Zhengsong.Drilling techniques forcoalbed in Yiqikelike area of Tarim Basin[J].Acta Petrolei Sini-ca,2006,27(5):108-111.
[13]黄维安,邱正松,徐加放,等.吐哈西部油田井壁失稳机理实验研究[J].石油学报,2007,28(3):116-120.Huang Wei’an,Qiu Zhengsong,Xu Jiafang,et al.Experimentalstudy on sidewall instability mechanism of oil wells in the west-ern Tuha oilfield[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2007,28(3):116-120.
[14]金衍,陈勉,吴超.探井二开以下地层井壁稳定性钻前预测方法[J].石油勘探与开发,2008,35(6):742-745.Jin Yan,Chen Mian,Wu Chao.Borehole stability prediction be-fore drilling for formations under the second section in an explo-ration well[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2008,35(6):742-745.
[15]金衍,陈勉.利用地震记录钻前预测井壁稳定性研究[J].石油学报,2004,25(1):89-92.Jin Yan,Chen Mian.Prediction of borehole stability by seismicrecords[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2004,25(1):89-92.
[16]金衍,陈勉,张旭东.钻前井壁稳定预测方法的研究[J].石油学报,2001,22(3):96-99.Jin Yan,Chen Mian,Zhang Xudong.Study on prediction for boreholestability before drilling[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2001,22(3):96-99.
[17]吴超,陈勉,金衍.基于地震属性技术的井壁稳定随钻预测新方法[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2007,31(6):141-146.Wu Chao,Chen Mian,Jin Yan.A new method of predicting bore-hole stability while drilling based on seismic attribute technology[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum:Edition of NaturalScience,2007,31(6):141-146.
[18]闫相祯,邓卫东,高进伟,等.套管钻井中套管柱疲劳可靠性及相关力学特性研究[J].石油学报,2009,30(5):769-773.Yan Xiangzhen,Deng Weidong,Gao Jinwei,et al.Analysis onmechanics and fatigue reliability of casing string during casingdrilling[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2009,30(5):769-773.
[19]闫相祯,高进伟,杨秀娟.用可靠性理论解析API套管强度的计算公式[J].石油学报,2007,28(1):122-125.Yan Xiangzhen,Gao Jinwei,Yang Xiujuan.Analysis of API for-mulas and calculation of casing strength based on reliability theo-ry[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2007,28(1):122-125.
[20]Hoek E,Brown E T.Practical estimates of rock mass strength[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sci-ences and Geomechanics Abstracts,1997,34(8):1165-1186.
[21]Hoek E,Carranza-Torres C,Corkum B.Hoek-Brown failure cri-terion-2002 Edition:proc.NARMS-TAC Conference[C].Toron-to:University of Toronto,2002:267-273.
[22]Hoek E,Marinos P,Benissi M.Applicability of the geological strengthindex(GSI)classification for very weak and sheared rock masses:thecase of the Athens Schist Formation[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geolo-gy and the Environment,1998,57(2):151-160.
[23]Marinos P,Hoek E.GSI:ageologically friendly tool for rock massstrength estimation:proc.GeoEng2000,Melbourne[C].Lancas-ter:Technomic Publishing Company,2000:1422-1442.
[24]Marinos V,Marinos P,Hoek E.The geological strength index:applications and limitations[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geologyand the Environment,2005,64(1):55-65.
[25]张立松,闫相祯,杨恒林,等.基于测井信息的煤岩GSI-JP破碎分级预测[J].岩土工程学报,2011,33(7):1091-1096.Zhang Lisong,Yan Xiangzhen,Yang Henglin,et al.GSI-JPcrushed classification prediction method of coal rock based onlogging information[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engi-neering,2011,33(7):1091-1096.
[26]张毅,闫相祯,颜庆智.三维分层地应力模型与井眼岩石破裂准则[J].西安石油学院学报:自然科学版,2000,15(4):42-43.Zhang Yi,Yan Xiangzhen,Yan Qingzhi.3D model for the strati-fied calculation of ground stress and fracture criterion of wellholerock[J].Journal of Xi’an Petroleum Institute:Natural ScienceEdition,2000,15(4):42-43.
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