城市综合承灾能力评价研究
|
摘要
运用突变级数理论,构建了城市综合承灾能力评价指标体系,建立城市承灾能力综合评价模型.并通过对29个城市实例进行分析,实例分析结果与各城市承灾能力实际状态基本一致,显示该方法能利用一个综合反映多因素之间复杂关系的特征指标给出相应的评价等级结果.最后对综合承灾能力进行比较,从中也获得了其承灾能力强或弱的原因.其结果表明该方法应用到城市综合承灾能力评价是可行的.该方法克服了模糊数学法、主成分分析法等主观性较大、计算较复杂的缺点,显得更适宜和准确.
The index system of urban disaster-bearing capability was constructed by the method of catastrophe progression,and urban disaster-bearing capability were evaluated.The experimental results have shown that this method is feasible and reliable to evaluate the urban disaster-bearing capability.At the same time,twenty-nine cities are analyzed,result of which is basically the same.And the method can use a comprehensive reflection of many factors of the complicated relationship between characteristic indexes corresponding evaluation results.Finally,the urban disaster-bearing capability was compared,from which the strength or weakness of the disaster bearing capacity was judged.This method overcomes the shortcomings of AHP and fuzzy mathematics,being subjective and complicated in calculation.Therefore,it is more appropriate and accurate.
The index system of urban disaster-bearing capability was constructed by the method of catastrophe progression,and urban disaster-bearing capability were evaluated.The experimental results have shown that this method is feasible and reliable to evaluate the urban disaster-bearing capability.At the same time,twenty-nine cities are analyzed,result of which is basically the same.And the method can use a comprehensive reflection of many factors of the complicated relationship between characteristic indexes corresponding evaluation results.Finally,the urban disaster-bearing capability was compared,from which the strength or weakness of the disaster bearing capacity was judged.This method overcomes the shortcomings of AHP and fuzzy mathematics,being subjective and complicated in calculation.Therefore,it is more appropriate and accurate.
引文
[1]张风华,谢礼立,范立础.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):319-329.ZHANG Feng-hua,XIE Li-li,FAN Li-chu.Studies on evaluation of citiesability reducing earthquake disasters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2004,26(3):319-329.
[2]颜峻,左哲.自然灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):61-65.YAN Jun,ZUO Zhe.Research on natural disaster risk assessment index system and method[J].China Safety Sci-ence Journal,2010,20(11):61-65.
[3]王威,韩阳,赵月平.基于AHP的城市抗震防御能力二级模糊综合评判[J].建筑技术开发,2006,33(4):1-3.WANG Wei,HAN Yang,ZHAO Yue-ping.Secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation about the ability of a city defending earthquake disasters by AHP[J].Building Technique Development,2006,33(4):1-3.
[4]郑宇.城市防震减灾能力评价指标与应急需求研究[D].南京:南京工业大学,2003.ZHENG Yu.Research on the Evaluating Index of Ability for Urban Earthquake Disaster Reduction and Requirements for Emergent Rescue[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Technology,2003.
[5]杨挺.城市局部地震灾害危害性指数及其在上海市的应用[J].国际地震动态,2002(2):4-7.YANG Ting.Urban local earthquake disaster risk index and its application in Shanghai[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2002(2):4-7.
[6]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.HUANG Chong-fu.Risk assessment of nature disaster theory&practice[M].Beijing:Science Press,2005.
[7]高庆华.中国区域减灾基础能力初步研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.GAO Qing-hua.Preliminary Study on the Basis of Regional Disaster Reduction Capacity in China[M[.Beijing:Meteorological Press.2006.
[8]王威,田杰.基于云模型的城市防震减灾能力综合评价方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2010,36(6):764-770.WANG Wei,TIAN Jie,MA Dong-hui.Research on comprehensive evaluation for cities ability of reducing earth-quake disasters based on cloud model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2010,36(6):764-770.
[9]刘智.城市抗灾力的内涵、度量模型与评估策略[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(4):136-141.LIU Zhi.A measurement model of urban disaster-fighting ability and its evaluation tactics[J],China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(4):136-141.
[10]张明媛.城市承灾能力及灾害综合风险评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.ZHANG Ming-yuan.Research on the Assessment of Disaster-carrying Capability and Disaster Comprehensive Risk in Urban Place[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2008.
[11]Marco Antonio Torres-Vera,Jose Antonio Canas.A lifeline vulnerability study in Barcelona,Spain[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003(80):205-210.
[12]冀萌新,张文生.中国自然灾害转移、安置的财政补助机制[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):67-71.JIMeng-xin,ZHANG Wen-sheng.Research on mechanism of financial a ids for transfer and resettlement in natural[],,():
[13]Zerger A,Smith D.1,Hunter G.J.Riding the storm:a comparison of uncertainty modeling techniques for storm surge risk management.Applied geography,2002,(22):307-330.
[14]史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-7.
[15]刘婧,方伟华,葛怡.区域水灾恢复力及水灾风险管理研究[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):56-61.
[16]Nazzareno Diodato,Michele Ceccarelli.Geographical Information Systems and Geo-statistics for Modeling Radioactively Contaminated Land Areas[J].Natrnal Hazards,2005,35:229-242.
[17]Lorena Montoya,lan Masser.Management of natural hazard risk in Cartago[J].Costa Rica.Habit International,2005,29:493-509.
[18]朱学平,何东进,丁福立.基于突变级数法的福建省森林火灾评价分析[J].福建农林大学学报,2011,32(6):295-299.ZHU Xue-ping,HE Dong-jin,DING Fu-li.Evaluation and analysis of forest fires in Fujian Province based on ca-tastrophe progression method[J].College of Forestry,Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,2011,32(6):295-299.
[19]魏婷,朱晓东,李杨帆.基于突变级数法的厦门城市生态系统健康评价[J].生态学报,2008,28(12):6312-6320.WEI Ting,ZHU Xiao-Dong,LI Yang-Fan.Ecosystem health assessment of Xia men City:the catastrophe pro-gression method[J].The journal of ecology,2008,28(12):6312-6320.
[2]颜峻,左哲.自然灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):61-65.YAN Jun,ZUO Zhe.Research on natural disaster risk assessment index system and method[J].China Safety Sci-ence Journal,2010,20(11):61-65.
[3]王威,韩阳,赵月平.基于AHP的城市抗震防御能力二级模糊综合评判[J].建筑技术开发,2006,33(4):1-3.WANG Wei,HAN Yang,ZHAO Yue-ping.Secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation about the ability of a city defending earthquake disasters by AHP[J].Building Technique Development,2006,33(4):1-3.
[4]郑宇.城市防震减灾能力评价指标与应急需求研究[D].南京:南京工业大学,2003.ZHENG Yu.Research on the Evaluating Index of Ability for Urban Earthquake Disaster Reduction and Requirements for Emergent Rescue[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Technology,2003.
[5]杨挺.城市局部地震灾害危害性指数及其在上海市的应用[J].国际地震动态,2002(2):4-7.YANG Ting.Urban local earthquake disaster risk index and its application in Shanghai[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2002(2):4-7.
[6]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.HUANG Chong-fu.Risk assessment of nature disaster theory&practice[M].Beijing:Science Press,2005.
[7]高庆华.中国区域减灾基础能力初步研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.GAO Qing-hua.Preliminary Study on the Basis of Regional Disaster Reduction Capacity in China[M[.Beijing:Meteorological Press.2006.
[8]王威,田杰.基于云模型的城市防震减灾能力综合评价方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2010,36(6):764-770.WANG Wei,TIAN Jie,MA Dong-hui.Research on comprehensive evaluation for cities ability of reducing earth-quake disasters based on cloud model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2010,36(6):764-770.
[9]刘智.城市抗灾力的内涵、度量模型与评估策略[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(4):136-141.LIU Zhi.A measurement model of urban disaster-fighting ability and its evaluation tactics[J],China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(4):136-141.
[10]张明媛.城市承灾能力及灾害综合风险评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.ZHANG Ming-yuan.Research on the Assessment of Disaster-carrying Capability and Disaster Comprehensive Risk in Urban Place[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2008.
[11]Marco Antonio Torres-Vera,Jose Antonio Canas.A lifeline vulnerability study in Barcelona,Spain[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003(80):205-210.
[12]冀萌新,张文生.中国自然灾害转移、安置的财政补助机制[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):67-71.JIMeng-xin,ZHANG Wen-sheng.Research on mechanism of financial a ids for transfer and resettlement in natural[],,():
[13]Zerger A,Smith D.1,Hunter G.J.Riding the storm:a comparison of uncertainty modeling techniques for storm surge risk management.Applied geography,2002,(22):307-330.
[14]史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-7.
[15]刘婧,方伟华,葛怡.区域水灾恢复力及水灾风险管理研究[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):56-61.
[16]Nazzareno Diodato,Michele Ceccarelli.Geographical Information Systems and Geo-statistics for Modeling Radioactively Contaminated Land Areas[J].Natrnal Hazards,2005,35:229-242.
[17]Lorena Montoya,lan Masser.Management of natural hazard risk in Cartago[J].Costa Rica.Habit International,2005,29:493-509.
[18]朱学平,何东进,丁福立.基于突变级数法的福建省森林火灾评价分析[J].福建农林大学学报,2011,32(6):295-299.ZHU Xue-ping,HE Dong-jin,DING Fu-li.Evaluation and analysis of forest fires in Fujian Province based on ca-tastrophe progression method[J].College of Forestry,Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,2011,32(6):295-299.
[19]魏婷,朱晓东,李杨帆.基于突变级数法的厦门城市生态系统健康评价[J].生态学报,2008,28(12):6312-6320.WEI Ting,ZHU Xiao-Dong,LI Yang-Fan.Ecosystem health assessment of Xia men City:the catastrophe pro-gression method[J].The journal of ecology,2008,28(12):6312-6320.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心