基于径向基神经网络模型的电网地磁感应电流预测
|
摘要
为防范地磁感应电流(geomagnetically induced currents,简称GIC)引起的电网无功波动和变压器直流偏磁等影响,采用径向基函数(RBF)神经网络方法,取行星际扰动参数和GIC作为网络的输入—输出数据,利用空间扰动参数对GIC进行提前预测。结果显示:预测值和实际值的相关系数为0.96;将RBF神经网络方法应用到地磁感应电流的预测中,能取得较满意的效果,可为电网的减灾防灾提供依据。
To prevent the impact of the geomagnetically induced current(GIC)on the power grid,we can forecast the GIC by using the spatial parameters.The GIC can be forecast by using radial basis function(RBF)neural network with interplanetary disturbance parameter and GIC as the input and output of the network respectively.The result shows that correlation coefficient between the predicted value and the actual measured value is 0.96,indicating the satisfactory forecasting effect can be gained by application of the RBF neural network method in the forecast of GIC.
To prevent the impact of the geomagnetically induced current(GIC)on the power grid,we can forecast the GIC by using the spatial parameters.The GIC can be forecast by using radial basis function(RBF)neural network with interplanetary disturbance parameter and GIC as the input and output of the network respectively.The result shows that correlation coefficient between the predicted value and the actual measured value is 0.96,indicating the satisfactory forecasting effect can be gained by application of the RBF neural network method in the forecast of GIC.
引文
[1]刘连光.磁暴对中国电网的影响[J].电网与水利发展进展,2008,24(5):1-6.Liu Lianguang.The Effects on Chinese Power Grid by MagneticStorm[J].Advances of Power System&HydroelectricEngineering,2008,24(5):1-6.
[2]Albertson V D,Thorson J M,Miske S A,et al.The Effectsof Geomagnetic Storms on Electric Power System[J].IEEETransactions on Power Apparatus and System,1974,PAS-93(4):1031-1044.
[3]Kappaenman J G,Albertson V D.Bracing for the geomagneticstorms[J].IEEE Spectrum,1990,27(3):27-33.
[4]Pulkkinen A,Lindahl S,Viljanen A.Geomagnetic storm of29-31 October 2003:Geomagneticaly induced currents andtheir relation to problems in the Swedish highvoltage powertransmission system[J].Space Weather,2005,3,S08C03.
[5]刘连光,刘春明,张冰,等.我国广东电网的几次强磁暴影响事件[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):976-981.Liu Liangaun,Liu Chunming,Zhang Bing,et al.Strongmagnetic storm's influence on China's Guangdong powergrid[J].Geophys,2008,51(4):976-981.
[6]刘连光.大规模电网应对空间灾害天气的问题[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):1-5.Liu Lianguang.Scientific Issues on How to Cope With Damagein Large-Scale Power Grid Caused by Disastrous SpaceWeather[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(6):1-5.
[7]王炜,吴耿锋,张博锋,等.径向基函数(RBF)神经网络及其应用[J].地震,2005,25(2):19-25.Wang Wei,Wu Gengfeng,Zhang Bofeng,et al.RadialBasis Function(RBF)Neural Network and Its Application[J].Earthquake,2005,25(2):19-25.
[8]胡冰蕾.基于遗传优化的BP神经网络算法的短期负荷预测[J].供用电,2010(6):42-44.Hu Binglei.Forecasting Short-Term Load by BP NeuralNetwork Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization[J].Distribution&Utilization,2010(6):42-44.
[9]潘艳霞,薛花.磁控开关型故障限流器神经网络自适应偏置电流控制[J].供用电,2012(1):5-9.Pan Yanxia,Xue Hua.Neural Network Based AdaptiveBias Current Current Control in Magetic-ControlledSwitcher Type Fault Current Limiter[J].Distribution&Utilization,2012(1):5-9.
[10]高隽.人工神经网络原理及仿真实例[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2003.
[11]施彦,韩力群,廉小亲.神经网络设计方法与实例分析[M].北京:北京邮电大学出版社,2009.
[12]K.E.J.Huttunen,S.P.Kilpua,A.Pulkkinen,A.et al.Solarwind drivers of large geomagnetically induced currents duringthe solar cycle 23[J].Space Weather,2008(6):S10002.
[13]赵明现,乐贵明,刘玉洁,等.行星际扰动与不同级别磁暴强度关系的研究[J].空间科学学报,2006,26(6):421-426.Zhao Mingxian,Le Guiming,Liu Yujie,et al.Study on therelationship between interplanetary disturbances and magneticStorms with different Intensities[J].Space Science,2006,26(6):421-426.
[2]Albertson V D,Thorson J M,Miske S A,et al.The Effectsof Geomagnetic Storms on Electric Power System[J].IEEETransactions on Power Apparatus and System,1974,PAS-93(4):1031-1044.
[3]Kappaenman J G,Albertson V D.Bracing for the geomagneticstorms[J].IEEE Spectrum,1990,27(3):27-33.
[4]Pulkkinen A,Lindahl S,Viljanen A.Geomagnetic storm of29-31 October 2003:Geomagneticaly induced currents andtheir relation to problems in the Swedish highvoltage powertransmission system[J].Space Weather,2005,3,S08C03.
[5]刘连光,刘春明,张冰,等.我国广东电网的几次强磁暴影响事件[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):976-981.Liu Liangaun,Liu Chunming,Zhang Bing,et al.Strongmagnetic storm's influence on China's Guangdong powergrid[J].Geophys,2008,51(4):976-981.
[6]刘连光.大规模电网应对空间灾害天气的问题[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):1-5.Liu Lianguang.Scientific Issues on How to Cope With Damagein Large-Scale Power Grid Caused by Disastrous SpaceWeather[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(6):1-5.
[7]王炜,吴耿锋,张博锋,等.径向基函数(RBF)神经网络及其应用[J].地震,2005,25(2):19-25.Wang Wei,Wu Gengfeng,Zhang Bofeng,et al.RadialBasis Function(RBF)Neural Network and Its Application[J].Earthquake,2005,25(2):19-25.
[8]胡冰蕾.基于遗传优化的BP神经网络算法的短期负荷预测[J].供用电,2010(6):42-44.Hu Binglei.Forecasting Short-Term Load by BP NeuralNetwork Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization[J].Distribution&Utilization,2010(6):42-44.
[9]潘艳霞,薛花.磁控开关型故障限流器神经网络自适应偏置电流控制[J].供用电,2012(1):5-9.Pan Yanxia,Xue Hua.Neural Network Based AdaptiveBias Current Current Control in Magetic-ControlledSwitcher Type Fault Current Limiter[J].Distribution&Utilization,2012(1):5-9.
[10]高隽.人工神经网络原理及仿真实例[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2003.
[11]施彦,韩力群,廉小亲.神经网络设计方法与实例分析[M].北京:北京邮电大学出版社,2009.
[12]K.E.J.Huttunen,S.P.Kilpua,A.Pulkkinen,A.et al.Solarwind drivers of large geomagnetically induced currents duringthe solar cycle 23[J].Space Weather,2008(6):S10002.
[13]赵明现,乐贵明,刘玉洁,等.行星际扰动与不同级别磁暴强度关系的研究[J].空间科学学报,2006,26(6):421-426.Zhao Mingxian,Le Guiming,Liu Yujie,et al.Study on therelationship between interplanetary disturbances and magneticStorms with different Intensities[J].Space Science,2006,26(6):421-426.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心