城市避震疏散能力自主智能评价研究
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摘要
针对城市空间布局特征、地震及其次生灾害的特点和避震疏散能力评价的限定性、非线性等问题。从人、物、环境和灾害四个方面出发,综合考虑安全性、可达性和疏散有效性等原则,选取人口、建筑、绿地、道路、疏散场所和重大危险源等各类影响因素为评价指标,基于自主优势度概念和智能算法,提出城市避震疏散能力自主智能评价方法。该方法首先通过计算评价指标的绝对优势度和相对优势度,确定评价单元的评价指标优先顺序;其次利用蛙跳算法优化IOWA算子求解评价单元的位置加权向量和评价值向量,利用评价值的集结得到各评价单元的最优评价向量;最后实例计算表明,该方法评价结果充分反映受多种因素综合影响的城市避震疏散能力评价的客观实际情况,可接受程度较高,可为城市的避震疏散体系规划提供决策依据。
considering the characteristics of urban space layout,earthquake and its secondary disasters,and the problems to restriction and nonlinearity of evacuation capacity evaluation,the factors such as population,buildings,green spaces,roads,seismic refuges for evacuation,major hazard installations are selected as evaluation indexes in aspects of people,objects,environment and disaster,based on the principles of security,reachability and evacuation validity. The self-determined intelligent evaluation method of urban earthquake evacuation capacity is proposed based on the concept of dominance and intelligent algorithms. Firstly,the prior order of the evaluation indexes is determined by calculating the absolute dominance degree and relative dominance degree. Secondly,the position weighted vector and the evaluation value vector of the evaluation object are solved by leapfrog algorithm optimizing IOWA operator. Finally,the optimal evaluation vector is obtained by the aggregated model of evacuation values. Example shows that the evaluation results reflect the reality of the urban earthquake evacuation affected by a variety of factors. It is highly acceptable,and provides the a basis for decision making for urban earthquake evacuation planning.
considering the characteristics of urban space layout,earthquake and its secondary disasters,and the problems to restriction and nonlinearity of evacuation capacity evaluation,the factors such as population,buildings,green spaces,roads,seismic refuges for evacuation,major hazard installations are selected as evaluation indexes in aspects of people,objects,environment and disaster,based on the principles of security,reachability and evacuation validity. The self-determined intelligent evaluation method of urban earthquake evacuation capacity is proposed based on the concept of dominance and intelligent algorithms. Firstly,the prior order of the evaluation indexes is determined by calculating the absolute dominance degree and relative dominance degree. Secondly,the position weighted vector and the evaluation value vector of the evaluation object are solved by leapfrog algorithm optimizing IOWA operator. Finally,the optimal evaluation vector is obtained by the aggregated model of evacuation values. Example shows that the evaluation results reflect the reality of the urban earthquake evacuation affected by a variety of factors. It is highly acceptable,and provides the a basis for decision making for urban earthquake evacuation planning.
引文
[1]苏幼坡.城市灾害避难与避难疏散场所[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,2006
[2]Armin S,Bernhard S,Homas L.Transition from homogeneous to inhomogeneous flows in a lattice-gas binary mixture of slender particles[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2008,387(10):2337-2352
[3]初建宇,苏幼坡.村镇应急避难场所规划技术指标的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):23-27(Chu Jianyu,Su Youpo.Exporatiion of technical indexes for the panning of the emergency shelters in villages and small towns[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(5):23-27(in Chinese))
[4]马东辉,郭小东,王志涛.城市抗震防灾规划标准实施指南[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007
[5]Li Xiang,Claramunt C,Kung H T,et al.A decentralized and continuity-based algorithm for delineating capacitated shelters’service areas[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2008,35(4):593-608
[6]李刚,马东辉,苏经宇,等.城市地震应急避难场所规划方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2006,32(10):901-905(Li Gang,Ma Donghui,Su Jingyu,et al.Study of urban earthquake emergency shelters planning[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2006,32(10):901-905(in Chinese))
[7]Chiou Y C,Lai Y H.An integrated multi-objective model todetermine the optmial rescue path and traffic controlled arcs for disaster relief operations under uncertainty environments[J].Journal of Advanced Transportation,2007,42(4):493-519
[8]马亚杰,苏幼坡,刘瑞兴.城市防灾公园的安全评价[J].安全与环境工程,2005,12(1):50-52(Ma Yajie,Su Youpo,Liu Ruixing.Assessment of safety of urban parks for disaster prevention[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2005,12(1):50-52(in Chinese))
[9]潘安平.沿海农村台风“避难所”的配置合理性评价模型[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(1):10-18(Pan Anping.Evaluation model of allocation reasonableness of typhoon emergency shelter in coastal rural area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(1):10-18(in Chinese))
[10]管友海,高惠瑛,王耀.城市避震疏散能力评价方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2010,26(4):100-106(Guan Youhai,Gao Huiying,Wang Yao.Study on evaluation indices of earthquake evacuation capacity in cities[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2010,26(4):100-106(in Chinese))
[11]易平涛,李伟伟,郭亚军.基于二维IOWA算子的客观自主式评价方法[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(6):182-187(Yi Pingtao,Li Weiwei,Guo Yajun.Research into objective self-determined evaluation based on twodimension IOWA operator[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2011,20(6):182-187(in Chinese))
[12]Eusuff M M,Lansey K E,Pasha F.Shuffled frog-leaping algorithm:a memetic meta-heuristic for discrete optimization[J].Eng Optimiz,2006,38(2):129-154
[2]Armin S,Bernhard S,Homas L.Transition from homogeneous to inhomogeneous flows in a lattice-gas binary mixture of slender particles[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2008,387(10):2337-2352
[3]初建宇,苏幼坡.村镇应急避难场所规划技术指标的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):23-27(Chu Jianyu,Su Youpo.Exporatiion of technical indexes for the panning of the emergency shelters in villages and small towns[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(5):23-27(in Chinese))
[4]马东辉,郭小东,王志涛.城市抗震防灾规划标准实施指南[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007
[5]Li Xiang,Claramunt C,Kung H T,et al.A decentralized and continuity-based algorithm for delineating capacitated shelters’service areas[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2008,35(4):593-608
[6]李刚,马东辉,苏经宇,等.城市地震应急避难场所规划方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2006,32(10):901-905(Li Gang,Ma Donghui,Su Jingyu,et al.Study of urban earthquake emergency shelters planning[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2006,32(10):901-905(in Chinese))
[7]Chiou Y C,Lai Y H.An integrated multi-objective model todetermine the optmial rescue path and traffic controlled arcs for disaster relief operations under uncertainty environments[J].Journal of Advanced Transportation,2007,42(4):493-519
[8]马亚杰,苏幼坡,刘瑞兴.城市防灾公园的安全评价[J].安全与环境工程,2005,12(1):50-52(Ma Yajie,Su Youpo,Liu Ruixing.Assessment of safety of urban parks for disaster prevention[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2005,12(1):50-52(in Chinese))
[9]潘安平.沿海农村台风“避难所”的配置合理性评价模型[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(1):10-18(Pan Anping.Evaluation model of allocation reasonableness of typhoon emergency shelter in coastal rural area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(1):10-18(in Chinese))
[10]管友海,高惠瑛,王耀.城市避震疏散能力评价方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2010,26(4):100-106(Guan Youhai,Gao Huiying,Wang Yao.Study on evaluation indices of earthquake evacuation capacity in cities[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2010,26(4):100-106(in Chinese))
[11]易平涛,李伟伟,郭亚军.基于二维IOWA算子的客观自主式评价方法[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(6):182-187(Yi Pingtao,Li Weiwei,Guo Yajun.Research into objective self-determined evaluation based on twodimension IOWA operator[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2011,20(6):182-187(in Chinese))
[12]Eusuff M M,Lansey K E,Pasha F.Shuffled frog-leaping algorithm:a memetic meta-heuristic for discrete optimization[J].Eng Optimiz,2006,38(2):129-154
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