基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价
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摘要
汶川Ms 8.0级大地震诱发了数以万计的滑坡灾害。在大约48678 km2的滑坡影响区域内,作者采用震后遥感影像解译并结合野外调查的方法,共解译出48007处滑坡。应用GIS技术,建立了汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害及相关地形、地质空间数据库。采用地震滑坡确定性系数分析方法,分析了地震滑坡关于地震烈度、岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流与公路等8个因素的易发程度。基于GIS栅格分析方法,分别对16种不同影响因子组合类型进行地震滑坡易发性评价。最后,应用AUC(Ar-ea Under Curve,评价曲线下面积)方法得到最佳因子组合及其对应的评价结果,使用自然分类法则方法将研究区按滑坡易发程度分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区与极低易发区5类,极高易发区与高易发区面积之和约11690.46km2,占研究区总面积的24.02%,其中发育滑坡面积为524.84 km2,占滑坡总面积的73.73%。结果表明了极高与高易发区与实际滑坡之间有着良好的一致性,方法的评价结果成功率(AUC值)达到82.107%。
At 14:28(Beijing time)of May 12,2008,a catastrophic earthquake with surface wave magnitude of 8.0 struck Sichuan province of China.Tens of thousands of landslides were triggered by this earthquake over a broad area.A total of 48007 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and multi-source remote sensing imageries,verified by field check.A spatial database,including landslides and associated controlling parameters which may have influence on the occurrence of landslides,was developed and analyzed using geographical information system(GIS)technology.The eight factors that influence landslide occurrence,including seismic intensity,lithology,slope angle,faults,elevation,slope aspect,drainages and roads were created in raster data format base on GIS platform.The landslide susceptibility index of all ranks in each impact factor was calculated,using the certainty factor analysis method.Earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility areas of 16 impact factor combination categories were analyzed and mapped one after another,using the GIS raster analysis methods.The susceptibility result of the highest AUC(Area Under Curve)was used to create susceptibility map by using Natural Breaks law.The resulting susceptibility map showed five classes of landslide susceptibility,i.e.,extremely high,high,moderate,low,and extremely low.The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide distributions.The area with extremely high and high susceptibility accounts for about 11690.46 km2,24.02% of the study area,includes landslide areas of 524.84 km2,73.73% of all landslide areas.The susceptibility success accuracy was up to 82.107% in the form of AUC.
At 14:28(Beijing time)of May 12,2008,a catastrophic earthquake with surface wave magnitude of 8.0 struck Sichuan province of China.Tens of thousands of landslides were triggered by this earthquake over a broad area.A total of 48007 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and multi-source remote sensing imageries,verified by field check.A spatial database,including landslides and associated controlling parameters which may have influence on the occurrence of landslides,was developed and analyzed using geographical information system(GIS)technology.The eight factors that influence landslide occurrence,including seismic intensity,lithology,slope angle,faults,elevation,slope aspect,drainages and roads were created in raster data format base on GIS platform.The landslide susceptibility index of all ranks in each impact factor was calculated,using the certainty factor analysis method.Earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility areas of 16 impact factor combination categories were analyzed and mapped one after another,using the GIS raster analysis methods.The susceptibility result of the highest AUC(Area Under Curve)was used to create susceptibility map by using Natural Breaks law.The resulting susceptibility map showed five classes of landslide susceptibility,i.e.,extremely high,high,moderate,low,and extremely low.The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide distributions.The area with extremely high and high susceptibility accounts for about 11690.46 km2,24.02% of the study area,includes landslide areas of 524.84 km2,73.73% of all landslide areas.The susceptibility success accuracy was up to 82.107% in the form of AUC.
引文
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[23]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3978~3985.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.GIS-based landslide sus-ceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process(AHP)forMay 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake region.Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(S2):3978~3985.
[24]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500~1506.Lan Hengxing,Wu Faquan,Zhou Chenghu,et al.Analysis on sus-ceptibility of GIS based landslide triggering factors in Yunnan Xi-aojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2002,21(10):1500~1506.
[25]陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(1):104~110.Chen Xiaoli,Ran Hongliu,Qi Shengwen.Triggering factors sus-ceptibility of earthquake-indueced landslides in 1976 LonglingEarthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekin-ensis,2009,45(1):104~110.
[26]Shortliffe E H,Buchanan B G.A model of inexact reasoning inmedicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23:351~379.
[27]Heckerman D.Probabilistic Interpretation for MYCIN s CertaintyFactors[C].In Proceedings:UAI,1985:167~196.
[28]Kamp U,Growley B J,Khattak G A,et al.GIS-based landslidesusceptibility mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region[J].Geomorphology,2008,101(4):631~642.
[29]Zezere J L,Garcia R A C.Oliveira S C.et al.Probabilistic land-slide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lis-bon(Portugal)[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3-4):467~495.
[30]Conoscenti C,Di Maggio C.Rotiglinao E.GIS analysis to assesslandslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily(Italy)[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3-4):325~339.
[2]Wang FW,Cheng QG,Highland L,et al.Preliminary investigationof some large landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earth-quake,Sichuan Province,China.Landslides,2009,6(1):47~54.
[3]Sato HP,Harp EL.Interpretation of earthquake-induced landslidestriggered by the 12 May 2008,M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in theBeichuan area,Sichuan Province,China using satellite imagery andGoogle Earth.Landslides,2009,6(2):153~159.
[4]Cui P,Chen XQ,Zhu YY,et al.The Wenchuan Earthquake(May12,2008),Sichuan Province,China,and resulting geo-hazards.Natural Hazards,2009,Online First.
[5]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):7~12.Yin Yueping.Research on the geo-hazards triggered by Wenchuanearthquake,Sichuan[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(4):7~12.
[6]殷跃平.汶川八级地震滑坡特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):29~38.Yin Yueping.Features of landslides triggered by the Wenchuanearthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):29~38.
[7]Yin YP,Wang FW,Sun P.Landslide hazards triggered by the 2008Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China.Landslides,2009,6(2):139~152.
[8]常东升,张利民,徐耀,等.红石河堰塞湖漫顶溃坝风险评估[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):50~55.Chang Dongsheng,Zhang Limin,Xu Yao,et al..Analysis of over-topping failure of Hongshihe landslide dam after Wenchuan earth-quake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):50~55.
[9]许强,黄润秋.5.12汶川大地震诱发大型崩滑灾害动力特征初探[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):721~729.Xu Qiang,Huang Runqiu.Kinetics characteristics of large land-slides triggered by May 12thWenchuan earthquake[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,2008,16(6):721~729.
[10]黄润秋,裴向军,李天斌.汶川地震触发大光包巨型滑坡基本特征及形成机理分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):730~741.Huang Runqiu,Fei Xiangjun,Li Tianbin.Basic characteristicsand formation mechanism of the largest scale landslide at Da-guangbao occurred during the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):730~741.
[11]黄润秋.汶川8.0级地震触发崩滑灾害机制及其地质力学模式[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1239~1249.Huang Runqiu.Mechanism and geomechanical modes of land-slides hazards triggered by Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake[J].Chi-nese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1239~1249.
[12]谢洪,王士革,孔纪名.“5.12”汶川地震次生山地灾害的分布与特点[J].山地学报.2008,26(4):396~401.Xie Hong,Wang Shige,Kong Jiming.Distribution and characteris-tics of mountain hazards induced by the earthquake of May 12 inWenchuan,China[J].Journal of Mountain Science.2008,26(4):396~401.
[13]吴树仁,石菊松,姚鑫,等.四川汶川地震地质灾害活动强度分析评价[J].地质通报.2008,27(11):1900~1906.Wu Shuren,Shi Jusong,Yao Xin,et al.Analysis and evaluation ofgeohazard intensity of the Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China.2008,27(11):1900~1906.
[14]张永双,雷伟志,石菊松,等.四川5.12地震次生地质灾害的基本特征初析[J].地质力学学报.2008,14(2):109~116.Zhang Yongshuang,Lei Weizhi,Shi Jusong,et al.General charac-teristics of 5.12 earthquake-induced geohazards in Sichuan[J].Journal of Geomechanics.2008,14(2):109~116.
[15]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12″汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585~2592.Huang Runqiu,Li Weile.Research on development and distribu-tion rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuan earthquake on 12thMay,2008[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engi-neering,2008,27(12):2585~2592.
[16]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川大地震触发地质灾害的断层效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):19~28.Huang Runqiu,Li Weile.Fault effect analysis of geo-hazard trig-gered by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geol-ogy,2009,17(1):19~28.
[17]祁生文,许强,刘春玲,等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39~49.Qi Shengwen,Xu Qiang,Liu Chunling,et al..Slope instabilitiesin the severest disaster areas of 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):39~49.
[18]许冲,戴福初,陈剑,等.汶川Ms8.0地震重灾区次生地质灾害遥感精细调查研究[J].遥感学报,2009,13(4):754~762.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Chen Jian,et al.Identification and analysisof secondary geological hazards triggered by a magnitude 8.0Wenchuan Earthquake.Journal of Remote Sensing,2009,13(4):745~753.
[19]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫.汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害的数量与面积[J].科技导报,2009,27(11):79~81.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin.Incidence number and affectedarea of Wenchuan Earthquake-induced landslides.Science&Technology Review,2009,27(11):79~81.
[20]许冲,戴福初,涂新斌,等.“5.12″汶川地震诱发滑坡特征参数统计分析[J].自然灾害学报,2009,To be pressed.Xu C,Dai FC,Tu Xinbin,et al.Statistical analysis of the charac-teristic parameters of landslides triggered by the May 12,2008Wenchuan earthquake.Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,To bepressed.
[21]姚鑫,许冲,戴福初,等.四川汶川Ms8级地震引发的滑坡与地层岩性、坡度的相关性[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):1156~1162.Yao Xin,Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,et al.Contribution of strata lithol-ogy and slope gradient to landslides triggered by Wenchuan Ms 8earthquake,Sichuan,China.Geological Bulletin of China,2009,28(8):1156~1162.
[22]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.基于GIS的汶川地震滑坡灾害影响因子确定性系数分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(S1):To be pressed.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.GIS Based Certainty FactorAnalysis of Landslide Triggering Factors in Wenchuan Earthquakeof 12 May 2008,Sichuan,China.Chinese Journal of Rock Me-chanics and Engineering,2010,29(S1):To be pressed.
[23]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3978~3985.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.GIS-based landslide sus-ceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process(AHP)forMay 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake region.Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(S2):3978~3985.
[24]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500~1506.Lan Hengxing,Wu Faquan,Zhou Chenghu,et al.Analysis on sus-ceptibility of GIS based landslide triggering factors in Yunnan Xi-aojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2002,21(10):1500~1506.
[25]陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(1):104~110.Chen Xiaoli,Ran Hongliu,Qi Shengwen.Triggering factors sus-ceptibility of earthquake-indueced landslides in 1976 LonglingEarthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekin-ensis,2009,45(1):104~110.
[26]Shortliffe E H,Buchanan B G.A model of inexact reasoning inmedicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23:351~379.
[27]Heckerman D.Probabilistic Interpretation for MYCIN s CertaintyFactors[C].In Proceedings:UAI,1985:167~196.
[28]Kamp U,Growley B J,Khattak G A,et al.GIS-based landslidesusceptibility mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region[J].Geomorphology,2008,101(4):631~642.
[29]Zezere J L,Garcia R A C.Oliveira S C.et al.Probabilistic land-slide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lis-bon(Portugal)[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3-4):467~495.
[30]Conoscenti C,Di Maggio C.Rotiglinao E.GIS analysis to assesslandslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily(Italy)[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3-4):325~339.
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