汶川县地震诱发崩滑灾害影响因素的敏感性分析
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摘要
震后遥感影像与调查结果表明,汶川Ms8.0级地震在汶川县城约4083km2的区域内诱发了5528余处崩塌、滑坡灾害。利用GIS技术对地震地质灾害的分布与地层岩性、距断裂距离、坡度、高程等因素的关系进行统计分析,结合崩滑的确定性系数方法(CF),对诸影响因子进行敏感性分析,确定该区域内各因子最利于地震滑坡发育的数值区间,结果表明:地震崩塌滑坡主要分布在元古界、震旦系、二叠系硬质岩石分布的地层里,坡度为大于40°的坡体上;活动断裂10km缓冲区内,未动断裂6km缓冲区内崩滑密集分布;崩滑发育较有利的高程范围位于1000～2500m;相对高差范围位于600～1000m之间,岷江干流对崩滑分布起绝对控制作用。分析得出影响本次崩塌滑坡分布的因子具有地震波传播介质效应和距离效应;由地震产生的崩滑与降雨诱发的崩滑在岩性、坡度的发生区间上有较为明显的区别;并为进行其他地区区域地震崩滑灾害稳定性评价提供了可以借鉴的科学依据。
The remote sensing image and survey results after the earthquake showed that,the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake had induced more than 5 528 collapses and landslides in the Wenchuan County with the area of about 4 083 km2.Based on GIS,the statistical relationships between the collapses and landslides distribution and the factors,such as the lithology,distance to faults,slope gradient,elevation and others,were analyzed.Susceptibility of triggering factors of Wenchuan Earthquake was analyzed by the means of slope certainty factors(CF).The most numerical intervals of each factor which are inclined to hazards were determined.The results showed that the hazards mainly distributed in the stratum of Proterozoic,Sinian and Permian with hard rock,in the slope of more than 40 degree,within a 10 km buffer zone to the active faults and 6 km to the no active faults.The collapses and landslides distributed mainly in the area with the elevation 1 000 ~ 2 500 m and relative height between 600 ~ 1 000 m.The mainstream of the Min River absolutely controlled the hazard distribution.The conclusions indicated that the factors have the effect of seismic wave propagation in media and distance effect.There is significant different numerical interval which inclined to collapses and landslides in lithology and slope between induced by earthquake and by rainfall.
The remote sensing image and survey results after the earthquake showed that,the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake had induced more than 5 528 collapses and landslides in the Wenchuan County with the area of about 4 083 km2.Based on GIS,the statistical relationships between the collapses and landslides distribution and the factors,such as the lithology,distance to faults,slope gradient,elevation and others,were analyzed.Susceptibility of triggering factors of Wenchuan Earthquake was analyzed by the means of slope certainty factors(CF).The most numerical intervals of each factor which are inclined to hazards were determined.The results showed that the hazards mainly distributed in the stratum of Proterozoic,Sinian and Permian with hard rock,in the slope of more than 40 degree,within a 10 km buffer zone to the active faults and 6 km to the no active faults.The collapses and landslides distributed mainly in the area with the elevation 1 000 ~ 2 500 m and relative height between 600 ~ 1 000 m.The mainstream of the Min River absolutely controlled the hazard distribution.The conclusions indicated that the factors have the effect of seismic wave propagation in media and distance effect.There is significant different numerical interval which inclined to collapses and landslides in lithology and slope between induced by earthquake and by rainfall.
引文
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[21]Qiao Jianping,Wu Caiyan.The influence of ralative elevation on landslide occurrence within Yunyang-Wushan section in the Three Gorges reservoir region[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2005,16(4):16-19.[乔建平,吴彩燕.三峡水库区云阳-巫山段斜坡高差因素对滑坡发育的贡献率研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(4):16-19.]
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[2]Papadopoulos G A,Plessa A.Magnitude-distance relations for earthquake induced landslide in Greece[J].Engineering Geology,Special Issue,2000,58(3-4):377-386.
[3]Keefer D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95(4):406-421.
[4]Keefer D K.Statistical analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution—the 1989 Loma Prieta,California event[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):231-249.
[5]Shortliffe E H,Buchanan G G.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23(3-4):351-379.
[6]Heckerman A.Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN’s certainty factors[C]//Kanal L N,Lemmer J F.Uncertainty in Atificial Inteligence.New York:Elsevier,1986:298-311.
[7]Lan Hengxin,Wu Faquan,Zhou Chenghu,et al.Analysis on susceptibility of gis based landslide triggering factors in YunNan Xiaojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1500-1506.[兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.]
[8]Zhou Cuiying,Lin Chunxiu,Liu Zuoqiu,et al.Spatial probalitity analysis of landslides based on gis technology[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(6):911-914.[周翠英,林春秀,刘祚秋,等.基于GIS技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):911-914.]
[9]Chen Xiaoli,Ran Hongliu,Qi Shengwen.Triggering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced landslides in 1976 Longling earthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2009,45(1):104-110.[陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(1):104-110.]
[10]Cui P,Chen X Q,Zhu Y Y,et al.The Wenchuan earthquake(12 May 2008),Sichuan province,China,and resulting geohazards[J].Nature Hazards:b,2009,DOI10.1007/s11069-009-9392-1.
[11]Huang Runqiu,Li Weile.Research on development and distribution rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuan Earthquake on12th May,2008[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592.[黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.]
[12]Yin Yueping.Features of landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):29-38.[殷跃平.汶川八级地震滑坡特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):29-38.]
[13]Su Fenghuan,Liu Hongjiang,Han Yongshun.The extraction of mountain hazard induced by Wenchuan Earthquake and a-nalysis of its distributing characteristic[J].Journal of Re-mote Sensing,2008,12(6):956-963.[苏凤环,刘洪江,韩用顺.汶川地震山地灾害遥感快速提取及其分布特点分析[J].遥感学报,2008,12(6):956-963.]
[14]《汶川地震灾害地图集》编纂委员会.汶川地震灾害地图集[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2008:6-7.
[15]Tang Chuan,Zhu Jing,Zhang Xiangrui.Gis based earthquake triggered landslide hazard prediction[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2001,24(1):73-81.[唐川,朱静,张翔瑞.GIS支持下的地震诱发滑坡危险区预测研究[J].地震研究,2001,24(1):73-81.]
[16]Cui Peng,Lin Yongming.Influences of natural and engineering factors on formation of debris flow and landslide along mountainous roads[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(3):11-16.[崔鹏,林勇明.自然因素与工程作用对山区道路泥石流、滑坡形成的影响[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):11-16.]
[17]Li Tiefeng,Wen Mingsheng,Cong Weiqing,et al.Research on the zonation methods of landslides triggered by rainfall[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2007,14(6):107-111.[李铁锋,温铭生,丛威青,等.降雨型滑坡危险性区划方法[J].地学前缘,2007,14(6):107-111.]
[18]Meunier P,Hovius N,Haines J A.Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2008,275(3-4):221-232.
[19]Han Jinliang,Wu Shuren,He Shujun,et al.Basal characteristics and formation mechanisms of geological hazards triggered by the May 12,2008 Wenchuan Earthquake with a moment magnitude of8.0[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2009,16(3):306-325.[韩金良,吴树仁,何淑军,等.“5.12”汶川8级地震次生地质灾害的基本特征及其形成机制浅析[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):306-325.]
[20]Qiao Yanxiao,Ma Zhongshe,Lv Fengjun,et al.Characteristics and dynamic cause mechanism of the Wenchuan Earthquake geological hazards[J].Geology in China,2009,36(3):736-741.[乔彦肖,马中社,吕凤军,等.汶川地震地质灾害发育特点及动因机制分析[J].中国地质,2009,36(3):736-741.]
[21]Qiao Jianping,Wu Caiyan.The influence of ralative elevation on landslide occurrence within Yunyang-Wushan section in the Three Gorges reservoir region[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2005,16(4):16-19.[乔建平,吴彩燕.三峡水库区云阳-巫山段斜坡高差因素对滑坡发育的贡献率研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(4):16-19.]
[22]Jiang Liangwen,Wang Shitian,Liu Hanchao,et al.Research on hypergene geological hazards in the upstream of min river[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2002,13(1):13-17.[蒋良文,王士天,刘汉超,等.岷江上游干流岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2002,13(1):13-17.]
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