汶川地震前后的气象异常
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摘要
有研究认为局地气象异常与地震之间存在着一定的相关性,那么震惊中外的汶川大地震前后有没有气象异常呢?应用NCEP再分析资料,以1988～2007年20年间局地气象要素的平均值和标准偏差为基准,通过构建气象异常指数对2008年5月12日汶川发生的大地震前后的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均降水强度和日平均气压等5项气象要素指标的异常状况进行了分析,结果表明在地震前2个月的时间内有异常状况出现,并且其变化幅度和持续时间都比较长,在地震过后这些异常并未立即消失;从5项气象要素异常空间分异来看,汶川是气象异常的中心地带,表征了汶川地震与局地气象之间存在着一定的相关性。尽管气象异常是否是地震发生的必然前兆尚待进一步考证,但出现在汶川特大地震前后的气象异常再次给我们一个提示,即气象异常与地震的关系值得深入研究。
Some researchers have discussed the correlations between meteorological anomalies and earthquakes,but a question remains about wheather such correlations exist for the Wenchuan Earthquake.This paper thus utilizes the NCEP Reanalysis Data to study the issue.The study is based on the five meteorological indices,i.e.the daily average temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,daily average precipitation rate,and daily average pressure.Such indices of 2008 are compared to their respective long-term means and standard deviations to identify anomalies near the strong earthquake in May 12,2008.The results show that meteorological anomalies before the earthquake do exist,and centers of the distributions of the anomalies are around Wenchuan.The anomalies persisted for some time after the earthquake,and the anomalies are overall relatively long lasting and strong.The meteorological anomalies that occurred prior to the earthquake could be the earthquake indicators,but given the complexity of an earthquake more thorough investigations are needed to actually use such anomalies to predict earthquakes.Nevertheliss,the meteorological anomalies indeed give us some clues to the earthquake,suggesting the relationships between the local meteorological anomalies and a strong earthquake are worth to be studied.
Some researchers have discussed the correlations between meteorological anomalies and earthquakes,but a question remains about wheather such correlations exist for the Wenchuan Earthquake.This paper thus utilizes the NCEP Reanalysis Data to study the issue.The study is based on the five meteorological indices,i.e.the daily average temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,daily average precipitation rate,and daily average pressure.Such indices of 2008 are compared to their respective long-term means and standard deviations to identify anomalies near the strong earthquake in May 12,2008.The results show that meteorological anomalies before the earthquake do exist,and centers of the distributions of the anomalies are around Wenchuan.The anomalies persisted for some time after the earthquake,and the anomalies are overall relatively long lasting and strong.The meteorological anomalies that occurred prior to the earthquake could be the earthquake indicators,but given the complexity of an earthquake more thorough investigations are needed to actually use such anomalies to predict earthquakes.Nevertheliss,the meteorological anomalies indeed give us some clues to the earthquake,suggesting the relationships between the local meteorological anomalies and a strong earthquake are worth to be studied.
引文
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[14]Tramutoli V,DiBello G,Pergola N,et al.Robust satellite techniques for remote sensing of seismically active areas[J].Ann Geofis,2001,44:295-312.
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[16]张治洮.浅层地温与强震关系[J].地震,1994,2:73-80.
[17]Bruce A Bolt著,马杏垣等译.地震九讲[M].北京:地震出版社,2000:140-142.
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[19]Cyranoski D.A seismic shift in thinking[J].Nature,2004,431:1032-1034.
[20]Kamogawa M.Preseismic Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling,Eos Trans[J].AGU,2006,87(40):417.
[21]徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.美国NCEP/NCAR近50年全球再分析资料在我国气候变化研究中可信度的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(3):338-347.
[22]苏志侠,吕世华,罗四维.美国NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料及其初步分析[J].高原气象,1999,18(2):209-218.
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[25]Van Rooy M P.A Rainfall Anomaly Index Independent of Time and Space[J].NOTOS,Weather Bureau of South Africa,1965,14:43-48.
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[27]万战生,赵国泽,陈小斌,等.岩石圈地震前兆异常机制[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(3):708-714.
[28]余团,何荣昌.龙门山构造带区域稳定性探讨[J].地震研究,2000,23(4):378-383.
[29]安其美,丁立丰,王海忠,等.龙门山断裂带的性质与活动性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(2):115-119.
[30]陈国光,计凤桔,周荣军,等.龙门山断裂带晚第四纪活动性分段的初步研究[J].地震地质,2007,29(3):657-673.
[2]许绍燮.地震预报发展战略在于创新[J].国际地震动态,2005,5:30-33.
[3]Dunajecka MA,Pulinets S A.The physical nature of thermal anomalies observed before strong earthquakes in Mexico[J].Atmosfra,2005,18(4):235-247.
[4]耿庆国.破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法———关于短期临震气象要素五项指标异常[J].国际地震动态,2005,5:117-124.
[5]刘德富,罗灼礼,彭克银.强烈地震前的OLR异常现象[J].地震,1997,17(2):126-132.
[6]马未宇,徐秀登,张行才,等.NCEP温度图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合作地震短临预测初探———以2003年7-8月3次西藏地震为例[J].地震地质,2006,28(3):447-455.
[7]Ouzounov D,Liu D F,Kang C L,et al.Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquakes[J].Tectonophysics,2007,431:211-220.
[8]强祖基,徐秀登,赁常恭.卫星热红外异常一临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327.
[9]Singh R P,Bhoi S,Sahoo AK.Changes observed on land and ocean after Gujaratearthquake of January26,2001using IRS data[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2002,23(16):3123-3128.
[10]Singh R P,Sun D,Cervone G,et al.Characteristics of Meteorological and Atmosperic Parameters associated with Sumatra Earthquake of December26,2004[J].Geophysical Research Abstracts,2005,7:10729.
[11]Tronin A A.Satellite thermal survey-a new tool for the studies of seismoactive regions[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,1996,17(8):1439-1455.
[12]Tronin AA.Thermal IR satellite sensor data application for earthquake research in China[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2000,21(16):3169-3177.
[13]Tronin A A,Biagi P F,Molchanov O A,et al.Temperature variations related to earthquakes from simultaneous observation at the ground stations and by satellites in Kamchatka area[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2004,29:501-506.
[14]Tramutoli V,DiBello G,Pergola N,et al.Robust satellite techniques for remote sensing of seismically active areas[J].Ann Geofis,2001,44:295-312.
[15]徐秀登,强祖基,赁常恭.突发性地面增温与临震前兆:以1988年澜沧,耿马7.6,7.2级地震为例[J].地震地质,1990,12(3):243-249.
[16]张治洮.浅层地温与强震关系[J].地震,1994,2:73-80.
[17]Bruce A Bolt著,马杏垣等译.地震九讲[M].北京:地震出版社,2000:140-142.
[18]Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275:1616-1617.
[19]Cyranoski D.A seismic shift in thinking[J].Nature,2004,431:1032-1034.
[20]Kamogawa M.Preseismic Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling,Eos Trans[J].AGU,2006,87(40):417.
[21]徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.美国NCEP/NCAR近50年全球再分析资料在我国气候变化研究中可信度的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(3):338-347.
[22]苏志侠,吕世华,罗四维.美国NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料及其初步分析[J].高原气象,1999,18(2):209-218.
[23]E Kalnay,MKanamitsu,R Kistler,et al.The NECP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
[24]R Kistler,E Kalnay,WCollins,et al.The NCEP-NCAR50-Year Reanalysis:Monthly Means CD-ROMand Documentation[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2001,82(2):247-268.
[25]Van Rooy M P.A Rainfall Anomaly Index Independent of Time and Space[J].NOTOS,Weather Bureau of South Africa,1965,14:43-48.
[26]Michael O Alatise,Oladunni Bimpe Ikumawoyi.Evaluation of drought from rainfall data for Lokoja a confluence of two major rivers[J].Electronic journal of polish agricultural universities,2007,10(1):708-714.
[27]万战生,赵国泽,陈小斌,等.岩石圈地震前兆异常机制[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(3):708-714.
[28]余团,何荣昌.龙门山构造带区域稳定性探讨[J].地震研究,2000,23(4):378-383.
[29]安其美,丁立丰,王海忠,等.龙门山断裂带的性质与活动性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(2):115-119.
[30]陈国光,计凤桔,周荣军,等.龙门山断裂带晚第四纪活动性分段的初步研究[J].地震地质,2007,29(3):657-673.
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