5.12汶川8.0级地震序列震后早期趋势判定及有关问题讨论
|
摘要
详细叙述了5.12汶川8.0级地震后早期阶段的序列追踪及强余震预测过程,以期全面、如实地记录震后早期阶段的序列跟踪情况,尤其是在科学认识上的进展、反复、乃至错误.分序列类型判定、最大强余震震级估计、强余震活动持续时间、强余震可能发生地点及19～20日6～7级强余震预测等方面,对当时所依据的科学依据、所得结论、判定过程等进行简要归纳,并站在目前的角度对有关问题进行简单评述.
The tracing of the aftershocks and strong aftershock forecast of the 5.12 Wenchuan M8 earthquake are reviewed in detail,in order to record the tendency judgement of this catastrophic earthquake in early stage after the mainshock faithfully,especially for progresses,repeats and mistakes in scientific recognition.It includes several aspects,such as judegment of the sequence type,estimation of magnitude of the maximum aftershocks,duration of strong aftershock activity,investigation of potential sites of strong aftershocks,as well as the process and evidence of strong aftershock forecasting with M6～7 in May 19th～20~(th).Based on scientific evidence,conclusions and judging processes,and the simple criticism on these questios will be given from present perspective.
The tracing of the aftershocks and strong aftershock forecast of the 5.12 Wenchuan M8 earthquake are reviewed in detail,in order to record the tendency judgement of this catastrophic earthquake in early stage after the mainshock faithfully,especially for progresses,repeats and mistakes in scientific recognition.It includes several aspects,such as judegment of the sequence type,estimation of magnitude of the maximum aftershocks,duration of strong aftershock activity,investigation of potential sites of strong aftershocks,as well as the process and evidence of strong aftershock forecasting with M6～7 in May 19th～20~(th).Based on scientific evidence,conclusions and judging processes,and the simple criticism on these questios will be given from present perspective.
引文
① 汶川序列追踪及强余震预测预报,《汶川地震科学总结与反思报告》第三章,139～256． 蒋海昆、刘杰、李刚、周龙泉、赵翠萍、程万正、刘小风、邵辉成执笔,2008．
② 俞言祥,2008年5月21日.逆断层型地震的余震序列,台网中心会商会口头报告.
③ 王慧敏,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.(1927年5月23日古浪8． 0级地震应属主余型,但古浪8． 0级地震前同一天发生了一次5． 5级前震.此外,1951年11月18日西藏当雄8． 0级地震后,于1952年8月18日再次发生7． 5级地震,因而当雄8． 0级地震应属双震型地震序列--笔者注).
① 李钦祖,2008． 与刘杰之间的电话交流(2008-05-14) .(事后查阅到李钦祖先生多篇讨论地震序列余震分布长短轴之比的文献,但文中均未涉及到长短轴之比与序列类型的关系问题--笔者注).
② 历史地震目录统计结果,笔者注.
③ 全国震情紧急会商会纪要,2008年5月15日.
④ 王慧敏,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料(ML标度--笔者注).
① 俞言祥,2008年5月21日.逆断层型地震的余震序列,台网中心会商会报告.
② 郭铁栓,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
③ 王慧敏、吕梅梅,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
① 全国震情紧急会商会纪要,2008年5月15日.
① 高福旺,2008． 中国地震台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
② 陈荣华,2008． 中国地震台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
③ 中国地震局地球物理研究所,汶川地震震情跟踪汇报(20) ,2008年5月20日.
④ 冉永康,2008． 中国地震台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
⑤ 陈运泰,许力生,张勇,杜海林,冯万鹏,刘超,李春来.2008． 2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告(2008年5月28日),Http://www.csi.ac.cn/Sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
① 《汶川地震后地应变异常实时监测及发展趋势》.来源于国土资源部中国地质调查局网站(2008年5月18日)http://www.cgs.gov.cn/ZTlanmu/qita/zzbaodao/XTqu/XTqu/744--3182． htm
① 任鲁川,2008年5月22日.台网中心会商会报告.
① https:\10． 5． 160． 234:8443
[1] 吕坚,高建华,刘吉夫,等.有关科里奥利力效应与昆仑山口西8． 1级地震余震活动趋势的讨论[J].地震学报,2003,25 (4) :432～440．
Lü J, Gao J H, Liu J F, et al. A discussion on corioli force effect and aftershock activity tendency of the M8． 1 Kunlun mountain earthquake of 14 Nov. 2001[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,2003,25(4) :432～440．
[2] 蒋海昆,曲延军,李永莉,等.中国大陆中强地震余震序列的部分统计特征[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(4) :1110～1117． Jiang H K,Qu Y J,Li Y L,et al.Some statistic features of aftershock sequences in Chinese mainland[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2006,49(4) :1110～1117
[3] 吴开统,焦远碧,吕培苓,等.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1990,97～98． Wu K T,Jao Y B,Lv P L,et al.Earthquake sequence generality[M].Beijing:Beijing University Press,1990,97～98．
[4] 周惠兰,房桂荣,章爱娣.地震震型判断方法探讨[J].西北地震学报,1980,2(2) :45～59． Zhou H L,Fang G R,Zhang A D.Study on the judgement method of seismic types[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1980,2(2) :45～59．
[5] 谷继成,谢小碧,赵莉.强余震的时空分布规律及其理论解释[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(1) :32～46． Gu J C,Xie X B,Zhao L.Spatio-temporal distribution of strong aftershocks and theorical explanation[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1979,22(1) :32～46．
[6] 陈学忠,李艳娥,郭祥云.2008年5月12日四川汶川8． 0级地震前后震源区应力水平估计[J].国际地震动态,2008,(6) :1～3． Chen X Z,Li Y E,Guo X Y.Estimation of the stress levels in the focal region before and after the May 12,2008 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake With Ms8． 0[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2008,(6) :1～3．
[7] 蒋海昆,黎明晓,吴琼,等.5． 12汶川8． o级地震序列及相关问题讨论[J].地震地质,2008,30(3) :746～758． JiangH K,Li M X,Wu Q,et al.Features of the May 12 M8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake sequence and discussion on relevant problems[J].Seismology and Geolygy,2008,30 (3) :746～758．
[8] Das.S,Henry C.Spatial relation between main earthquake slip and its aftershock distribution[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2003,41,3/1013:1～23．
[9] 胡小幸,林邦慧.邢台地震空间分布随时间变化的立体图象与地震发生过程[J].地震学报,1989,11(1) :1～11． Hu X X,Lin B H.Stereoscopic figures of the time-variation in the space distribution of foci of the Xingtai earthquake and their occurrence procedure[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1989,11(1) :1～11．
[10] 盛书中,万永革,田力.科里奥利力对断层作用的统计研究[J].中国地震,2009,25(3) :256～264． Sheng S Z,Wan Y G,Tian L.Statistical study on the effect of Coriolis force in aftershocks[J].Earthquake Research in China,2009,25(3) :256～264．
[11] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992,428～431． Guo Z J,Qin B Y,Li G P,Future Catastrophology[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1992,428～431．
[12] 郭增建,吴瑾冰.用Corioli力讨论台湾南投7． 6级大震的余震强度[J].灾害学,2001,16(1) :35～38． Guo Z J,Wu J B.Discussion on the aftershock magnitude of Nantou 7． 6 earthquake in the Taiwan island[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2001,16(1) :35～38．
[13] Kisslinger C,Jones L M.Properties of aftershocks in southern California[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1991,96:11947～11958．
[14] Utsu T.Aftershocks and earthquake statistics (Ⅰ)Some parameters which characterize aftershock sequence and their interrelation[J].J.Fac.Sci Hokkaido Univ.,1969,Ser.Ⅶ,(2) :129～195．
[15] Heaton T H.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Geophys.J.,1975,43(2) :307～326．
[16] 高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等.固体潮张量对地震的触发作用[J].地震学报,1981,3(3) :264～275． Gao X M,Yin Z S,Wang W Z,et al.Triggering of earth tide tensor on earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1981,3(3) :264～275．
[17] Tanakad S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data[J].Geophys Res,2002,107:2211～2221．
[18] 陈荣华.引潮力对显著地震的触发作用与大震关系及在雅江地震预报中的应用[J].地震,2003,23(1) :53～56． Chen R H.Relation between tidal force triggering of significant shocks and the large earthquake and its application in the prediction of Yiajing earthquake[J].Earthquake,2003,23 (1) :53～56．
[19] 吴小平,黄雍,冒蔚,等.云南地震的潮汐应力触发机制及相关天体位置图像[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3) :574～583． Wu X P,Huang Y,Mao W,et al.Tidal stress triggering mechanism of earthquake in Yunnan and related patterns of celestial body positions[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(3) :574～583．
[20] 黎凯武,江在森,申彤.潮汐应力-应变对某些地震序列的调制触发[J].地震,2005,25(4) :75～86． Li K W,Jiang Z S,Shen T.Triggering of seismic sequence by tidal stress[J].Earthquake,2005,25(4) :75～86．
[21] 张晶,郗钦文,杨林章,等.引潮力和潮汐应力对强震触发的研究[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(2) :448～454． Zhang J,Qi Q W,Yang L Z,et al.A study on tidal force/stress triggering of strong earthquakes fJ].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2007,50 (2) :448～454．
[22] Vidale J D,Agnew C,Johnston M J S,et al.Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides:an indication of high preseismic fault stress rate[J].Geophys Res,1998,103:24567～24572．
[23] Heaton T H.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,1982,72:2181～2200．
[24] Rydelek P A,Davis P M,Koyanagi R Y.Tidal triggering of earthquake swarms at Kilauea Volcano Hawail[J].Geophys Res,1988,93:4401～4411．
[25] Rydelek P A,Sacks I S,Scarpa P.On tidal triggering of earthquakes at Campi Flegrei,Italy[J].Geophys J Int,1992,109:125～137．
[26] Tsuruoka H,Ohtake M,Sato H.Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes:Contribution of the ocean tide loading effect[J].Geophys J Int,1995,122:183～194．
[27] 郭啟良,王成虎,马洪生,等.汶川M_s8． 0级大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(5) :1395～1401． Guo Q L,Wang C H,Ma H S,et al.In-situ hydro-fracture stress measurement before and after the Wenchuan M_s8． 0 earthquake of China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(5) :1395～1401．
② 俞言祥,2008年5月21日.逆断层型地震的余震序列,台网中心会商会口头报告.
③ 王慧敏,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.(1927年5月23日古浪8． 0级地震应属主余型,但古浪8． 0级地震前同一天发生了一次5． 5级前震.此外,1951年11月18日西藏当雄8． 0级地震后,于1952年8月18日再次发生7． 5级地震,因而当雄8． 0级地震应属双震型地震序列--笔者注).
① 李钦祖,2008． 与刘杰之间的电话交流(2008-05-14) .(事后查阅到李钦祖先生多篇讨论地震序列余震分布长短轴之比的文献,但文中均未涉及到长短轴之比与序列类型的关系问题--笔者注).
② 历史地震目录统计结果,笔者注.
③ 全国震情紧急会商会纪要,2008年5月15日.
④ 王慧敏,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料(ML标度--笔者注).
① 俞言祥,2008年5月21日.逆断层型地震的余震序列,台网中心会商会报告.
② 郭铁栓,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
③ 王慧敏、吕梅梅,2008． 台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
① 全国震情紧急会商会纪要,2008年5月15日.
① 高福旺,2008． 中国地震台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
② 陈荣华,2008． 中国地震台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
③ 中国地震局地球物理研究所,汶川地震震情跟踪汇报(20) ,2008年5月20日.
④ 冉永康,2008． 中国地震台网中心汶川地震跟踪会商材料.
⑤ 陈运泰,许力生,张勇,杜海林,冯万鹏,刘超,李春来.2008． 2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告(2008年5月28日),Http://www.csi.ac.cn/Sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
① 《汶川地震后地应变异常实时监测及发展趋势》.来源于国土资源部中国地质调查局网站(2008年5月18日)http://www.cgs.gov.cn/ZTlanmu/qita/zzbaodao/XTqu/XTqu/744--3182． htm
① 任鲁川,2008年5月22日.台网中心会商会报告.
① https:\10． 5． 160． 234:8443
[1] 吕坚,高建华,刘吉夫,等.有关科里奥利力效应与昆仑山口西8． 1级地震余震活动趋势的讨论[J].地震学报,2003,25 (4) :432～440．
Lü J, Gao J H, Liu J F, et al. A discussion on corioli force effect and aftershock activity tendency of the M8． 1 Kunlun mountain earthquake of 14 Nov. 2001[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,2003,25(4) :432～440．
[2] 蒋海昆,曲延军,李永莉,等.中国大陆中强地震余震序列的部分统计特征[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(4) :1110～1117． Jiang H K,Qu Y J,Li Y L,et al.Some statistic features of aftershock sequences in Chinese mainland[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2006,49(4) :1110～1117
[3] 吴开统,焦远碧,吕培苓,等.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1990,97～98． Wu K T,Jao Y B,Lv P L,et al.Earthquake sequence generality[M].Beijing:Beijing University Press,1990,97～98．
[4] 周惠兰,房桂荣,章爱娣.地震震型判断方法探讨[J].西北地震学报,1980,2(2) :45～59． Zhou H L,Fang G R,Zhang A D.Study on the judgement method of seismic types[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1980,2(2) :45～59．
[5] 谷继成,谢小碧,赵莉.强余震的时空分布规律及其理论解释[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(1) :32～46． Gu J C,Xie X B,Zhao L.Spatio-temporal distribution of strong aftershocks and theorical explanation[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1979,22(1) :32～46．
[6] 陈学忠,李艳娥,郭祥云.2008年5月12日四川汶川8． 0级地震前后震源区应力水平估计[J].国际地震动态,2008,(6) :1～3． Chen X Z,Li Y E,Guo X Y.Estimation of the stress levels in the focal region before and after the May 12,2008 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake With Ms8． 0[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2008,(6) :1～3．
[7] 蒋海昆,黎明晓,吴琼,等.5． 12汶川8． o级地震序列及相关问题讨论[J].地震地质,2008,30(3) :746～758． JiangH K,Li M X,Wu Q,et al.Features of the May 12 M8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake sequence and discussion on relevant problems[J].Seismology and Geolygy,2008,30 (3) :746～758．
[8] Das.S,Henry C.Spatial relation between main earthquake slip and its aftershock distribution[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2003,41,3/1013:1～23．
[9] 胡小幸,林邦慧.邢台地震空间分布随时间变化的立体图象与地震发生过程[J].地震学报,1989,11(1) :1～11． Hu X X,Lin B H.Stereoscopic figures of the time-variation in the space distribution of foci of the Xingtai earthquake and their occurrence procedure[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1989,11(1) :1～11．
[10] 盛书中,万永革,田力.科里奥利力对断层作用的统计研究[J].中国地震,2009,25(3) :256～264． Sheng S Z,Wan Y G,Tian L.Statistical study on the effect of Coriolis force in aftershocks[J].Earthquake Research in China,2009,25(3) :256～264．
[11] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992,428～431． Guo Z J,Qin B Y,Li G P,Future Catastrophology[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1992,428～431．
[12] 郭增建,吴瑾冰.用Corioli力讨论台湾南投7． 6级大震的余震强度[J].灾害学,2001,16(1) :35～38． Guo Z J,Wu J B.Discussion on the aftershock magnitude of Nantou 7． 6 earthquake in the Taiwan island[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2001,16(1) :35～38．
[13] Kisslinger C,Jones L M.Properties of aftershocks in southern California[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1991,96:11947～11958．
[14] Utsu T.Aftershocks and earthquake statistics (Ⅰ)Some parameters which characterize aftershock sequence and their interrelation[J].J.Fac.Sci Hokkaido Univ.,1969,Ser.Ⅶ,(2) :129～195．
[15] Heaton T H.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Geophys.J.,1975,43(2) :307～326．
[16] 高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等.固体潮张量对地震的触发作用[J].地震学报,1981,3(3) :264～275． Gao X M,Yin Z S,Wang W Z,et al.Triggering of earth tide tensor on earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1981,3(3) :264～275．
[17] Tanakad S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data[J].Geophys Res,2002,107:2211～2221．
[18] 陈荣华.引潮力对显著地震的触发作用与大震关系及在雅江地震预报中的应用[J].地震,2003,23(1) :53～56． Chen R H.Relation between tidal force triggering of significant shocks and the large earthquake and its application in the prediction of Yiajing earthquake[J].Earthquake,2003,23 (1) :53～56．
[19] 吴小平,黄雍,冒蔚,等.云南地震的潮汐应力触发机制及相关天体位置图像[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3) :574～583． Wu X P,Huang Y,Mao W,et al.Tidal stress triggering mechanism of earthquake in Yunnan and related patterns of celestial body positions[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(3) :574～583．
[20] 黎凯武,江在森,申彤.潮汐应力-应变对某些地震序列的调制触发[J].地震,2005,25(4) :75～86． Li K W,Jiang Z S,Shen T.Triggering of seismic sequence by tidal stress[J].Earthquake,2005,25(4) :75～86．
[21] 张晶,郗钦文,杨林章,等.引潮力和潮汐应力对强震触发的研究[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(2) :448～454． Zhang J,Qi Q W,Yang L Z,et al.A study on tidal force/stress triggering of strong earthquakes fJ].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2007,50 (2) :448～454．
[22] Vidale J D,Agnew C,Johnston M J S,et al.Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides:an indication of high preseismic fault stress rate[J].Geophys Res,1998,103:24567～24572．
[23] Heaton T H.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,1982,72:2181～2200．
[24] Rydelek P A,Davis P M,Koyanagi R Y.Tidal triggering of earthquake swarms at Kilauea Volcano Hawail[J].Geophys Res,1988,93:4401～4411．
[25] Rydelek P A,Sacks I S,Scarpa P.On tidal triggering of earthquakes at Campi Flegrei,Italy[J].Geophys J Int,1992,109:125～137．
[26] Tsuruoka H,Ohtake M,Sato H.Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes:Contribution of the ocean tide loading effect[J].Geophys J Int,1995,122:183～194．
[27] 郭啟良,王成虎,马洪生,等.汶川M_s8． 0级大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(5) :1395～1401． Guo Q L,Wang C H,Ma H S,et al.In-situ hydro-fracture stress measurement before and after the Wenchuan M_s8． 0 earthquake of China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(5) :1395～1401．
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心