区域地震灾害承载力评价的突变模型
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摘要
为提高区域地震灾害承载力评价的准确性,基于拓扑学与系统论的基本原理,运用突变理论,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价突变模型。首先,在区域地震灾害承载力与突变理论结合分析的基础上,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价指标体系;其次,进行原始数据标准化处理;接着采用相应的突变归一公式和突变原则进行递归计算区域地震灾害承载力突变隶属值,并与评判标准比较得其地震灾害承载力等级;最后计算29个城市的地震灾害承载力,并将所得计算结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法所得结果进行比较。结果表明,该方法评价结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法的评价结果基本一致。
In order to enhance the accuracy of regional disaster-carrying capability assessment,based on the basic principles of topology and system theory,the catastrophe evaluation model of regional disaster-carrying capability is proposed.Firstly,evaluation indexes of regional disaster-carrying capacity are constructed on the basis of combinative analysis of regional disaster-carrying capability and catastrophe theory.Secondly,the raw data is standardized.Thirdly,a recursive calculation is carried out to get the catastrophic affiliated functional value of regional disaster-carrying capability by the corresponding normalized formulas and mutation principles,and the level of regional disaster-carrying capacity is obtained comparing the catastrophic affiliated functional value with the criteria level.Finally,the regional disaster-carrying capability of 29 cities are calculated and analyzed,and the calculation results are compared with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.The comparison results show the results obtained by the method are basically consistent with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.
In order to enhance the accuracy of regional disaster-carrying capability assessment,based on the basic principles of topology and system theory,the catastrophe evaluation model of regional disaster-carrying capability is proposed.Firstly,evaluation indexes of regional disaster-carrying capacity are constructed on the basis of combinative analysis of regional disaster-carrying capability and catastrophe theory.Secondly,the raw data is standardized.Thirdly,a recursive calculation is carried out to get the catastrophic affiliated functional value of regional disaster-carrying capability by the corresponding normalized formulas and mutation principles,and the level of regional disaster-carrying capacity is obtained comparing the catastrophic affiliated functional value with the criteria level.Finally,the regional disaster-carrying capability of 29 cities are calculated and analyzed,and the calculation results are compared with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.The comparison results show the results obtained by the method are basically consistent with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.
引文
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[16]李祚泳,张国丽,党媛.推广的高维突变模型势函数及用于地下水水质评价[J].系统工程,2010,28(4):101-105.LI Zuo-yong,ZHANG Guo-li,DANG yuan.Generalized potential function of higher Dimension catastrophe model and itsapplications to evaluation of ground water quality[J].Systems Engineering,2010,28(4):101-105.
[17]WANG Tongtao,YAN Xiangzhen,YANG Xiujuan,et al.Dynamic subsidence prediction of ground surface above salt caverngas storage considering the creep of rock salt[J].Science China:Technological Science,2010,53(12):3 197-3 202.
[18]蒋满元.我国区域减灾基础能力建设的需求分析与对策探讨[J].青岛科技大学学报:社会科学版,2009,25(1):46-51.JIANG Man-yuan.Demand analysis and countermeasure investigation on the foundation capacity building of region disasterreduction in our country[J].Journal of Qingdao University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences,2009,25(1):46-51.
[2]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disaster Hotspots:A Global Risk Analysis[R].Washington DC:HazardManagement Unit,World Bank,2005:1-132.
[3]Cardona O D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C,et al.Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management Summary Report forWCDR[R].Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB UNC/IDEA,2005:1-47.
[4]樊运晓,高朋会,王红娟.模糊综合评判区域承灾体脆弱性的理论模型[J].灾害学,2003,18(3):20-23.FAN Yun-xiao,GAO Peng-hui,WANG Hong-juan.Theoretical model for fuzzy evaluation of vulnerability of regional hazardbearing body[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2003,18(3):20-23.
[5]苏桂武,马宗晋,朱林,等.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):1-12.SU Gui-wu,MA Zong-jin,ZHU Lin,et al.Research on changes of regional macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disas-ters in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):1-12.
[6]刘毅,黄建毅,马丽.基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价[J].地理研究,2010,29(7):1 153-1 162.LIU Yi,HUANG Jian-yi,MA Li.The assessment of regional vulnerability to naturaldisasters in China based on DEAmodel[J].Geographical Research,2010,29(7):1 153-1 162.
[7]温宁,刘铁民.基于对抗交叉评价模型的中国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(4):24-18.WEN Ning,LIU Tie-min.The assessment of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the aggressive-cross-evaluation model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(4):24-18.
[8]高庆华.中国区域减灾基础能力初步研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.GAO Qing-hua.Preliminary Study on the Basis of Regional Disaster Reduction Capacity in China[M].Beijing:Meteoro-logical Press,2006.
[9]赵昕,郭晶.区域承灾力评价的协调度模型与实证[J].统计与决策,2011(6):63-65.ZHAO Xin,GUO Jing.Coordination model of regional disaster-bearing capability evaluation and Empirical[J].Statisticsand Decision,2011(6):63-65.
[10]湛孔星,王树坤,陈国华.区域承灾能力评估方法及应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(1):35-39.ZHAN Kong-xing,WANG Shu-kun,CHEN Guo-hua.Study on evaluation method of regional disaster-bearing capability andapplication[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2010,6(1):35-39.
[11]ZHANG Feng-hua,XIE Li-li,FAN Li-chu.Studies on evaluation of cities'ability reducing earthquake disasters[J].Acta-Seismologica Sinica,2004(3):349-361.
[12]王威,田杰,马东辉,等.基于云模型的城市防震减灾能力综合评价方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2010,36(6):764-770.WANG Wei,TIAN Jie,MA Dong-hui,et al.Research on comprehensive evaluation for cities'ability of reducing earthquakedisasters based on cloud model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2010,36(6):764-770.
[13]王威,田杰,王志涛,等.城市综合承灾能力评价的分形模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(5):172-176.WANG Wei,TIAN Jie,WANG Zhi-tao,et al.Fractal model for evaluating urban comprehensive disaster-carryingcapability[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(5):172-176.
[14]张明媛.城市承灾能力及灾害综合风险评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.ZHANG Ming-yuan.Research on the Assessment of Disaster-carrying Capability and Disaster Comprehensive Risk inUrban Place[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2008.
[15]郑宇.城市防震减灾能力评价指标与应急需求研究[D].南京:南京工业大学,2003.ZHENG Yu.Research on the Evaluating Index of Ability for Urban Earthquake Disaster Reduction and Requirements forEmergent Rescue[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Technology,2003.
[16]李祚泳,张国丽,党媛.推广的高维突变模型势函数及用于地下水水质评价[J].系统工程,2010,28(4):101-105.LI Zuo-yong,ZHANG Guo-li,DANG yuan.Generalized potential function of higher Dimension catastrophe model and itsapplications to evaluation of ground water quality[J].Systems Engineering,2010,28(4):101-105.
[17]WANG Tongtao,YAN Xiangzhen,YANG Xiujuan,et al.Dynamic subsidence prediction of ground surface above salt caverngas storage considering the creep of rock salt[J].Science China:Technological Science,2010,53(12):3 197-3 202.
[18]蒋满元.我国区域减灾基础能力建设的需求分析与对策探讨[J].青岛科技大学学报:社会科学版,2009,25(1):46-51.JIANG Man-yuan.Demand analysis and countermeasure investigation on the foundation capacity building of region disasterreduction in our country[J].Journal of Qingdao University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences,2009,25(1):46-51.
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