变压器震后剩余寿命评估模型的研究
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摘要
电力是国民经济的动力,而5.12汶川发生8.0级大地震后,变压器相当于经历了一次超出相应承受能力的破坏性试验,损失严重。为科学了解和分析变压器受灾情况,以确保现有投运变压器的安全可靠运行,有必要对震后变压器的受损程度及剩余寿命进行调研和评估,从而为变压器的全寿命周期管理和安全运行提供依据。该研究把统计学、数值分析、神经网络、管理科学及建筑学等多类学科融入到变压器震后剩余寿命评估中,建立了基于可靠性的变压器震后剩余寿命评估柔性模型。通过对汶川地震后四川省十三个地区变压器震前和震后的数据抽样收集、整理,并结合国内外地震数据库的资料和现场抽样试验方法,计算了失效率寿命分布曲线,为震后变压器的安全可靠运行提供了依据。
Power is the momentum of the national economy.After 5.12 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake,transformers come through a devastating test of exceed endure capability,and the loss are very heavy.For understanding and analyzing the status of transformers,it needs to investigate and evaluate the remaining life of transformer after the earthquake so as to ensure the stability and safety function of the transformers at work.The remaining life predict of transformers can afford the foundation of the whole longevity manage and safety function.Statistics,numerical analysis,neural network,administrant science and architectonics are integrated with the remaining life evaluation of transformers in this paper,establishing the flexible model of transformers remaining life evaluation by the reliability.Through the sample collecting and regulating of the transformer during the thirteen regions of the Sichuan province before and after Wenchuan earthquake,integrating the datum of the domestic and overseas earthquake data-base and the method of the sample test on-site,the life loss degree are calculated as an example.These afford the foundation for the safety and reliability function of transformers after the earthquake.
Power is the momentum of the national economy.After 5.12 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake,transformers come through a devastating test of exceed endure capability,and the loss are very heavy.For understanding and analyzing the status of transformers,it needs to investigate and evaluate the remaining life of transformer after the earthquake so as to ensure the stability and safety function of the transformers at work.The remaining life predict of transformers can afford the foundation of the whole longevity manage and safety function.Statistics,numerical analysis,neural network,administrant science and architectonics are integrated with the remaining life evaluation of transformers in this paper,establishing the flexible model of transformers remaining life evaluation by the reliability.Through the sample collecting and regulating of the transformer during the thirteen regions of the Sichuan province before and after Wenchuan earthquake,integrating the datum of the domestic and overseas earthquake data-base and the method of the sample test on-site,the life loss degree are calculated as an example.These afford the foundation for the safety and reliability function of transformers after the earthquake.
引文
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[2]HOWARD H,HWANG M,CHOU T.Evaluation of seis-mic performance of an electric substation using event tree/fault tree technique[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechan-ics,1998,13(2):117-124.
[3]LIU G Y,LIU C W,WANG Y J.Seismic performanceanalysis of electric power network in Taiwan[C]//Interna-tional Conference on Advances and New Challenges inEarthquake Engineering Research.Harbin:IEEE,2002:521-528.
[4]SHINOZUKA M,ROSE A,EGUCHI R T.Engineering andsocio economic impacts of earthquakes-an analysis of elec-tricity lifeline disruptions in the new Madrid Area[EB/OL].http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/21000/21600/21659/PB99130635.pdf,1998-5-13.
[5]于永清,李光范,李鹏,等.四川电网汶川地震电力设施受灾调研分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(11):1-6.YU Yong-qing,LI Guang-fan,LI Peng.Investigation andanalysis of electric equipment image in Sichuan powergrid caused by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Power SystemTechnology,2008,32(11):1-6.
[6]FEMA.Earthquake loss estimation methodology-HAZUS99[R].USA:Federal Emergency Management Agency,1999.
[7]SCHNEIDER J.Asset management techniques[J].Electri-cal Power and Energy Systems,2006(28):643-654.
[8]STONE G C,SEDDING H G,LLOYD B A,et al.The a-bility of diagnostic to estimate the remaining life of statorinsulation[J].IEEE Trans.on Energy Conversation,1988,3(4):833-841.
[9]ALLAN D M.Practical life assessment technique for agedtransformer insulation[J].IEE Proc-A,1993,140(5):404-406.
[10]ABDALLA L,FERREGUT C,NAZARIAN S,et al.Pre-diction of remaining life of flexible pavements with artifi-cial neural networks models[J].Nondestructive Testing ofPavements and Back Calculation of Moduli,2000(1375):484-98.
[11]于文斌,高桦,郭志忠.光学电流传感头的可靠性试验和寿命评估问题探讨[J].电网技术,2005,29(4):55-59.YU Wen-bin,GAO Hua,GUO Zhi-zhong.A discuss onreliability test and life period assessment for optical cur-rent sensing head[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(4):55-59.
[12]李军,董立文,赵红.油浸式变压器的老化和寿命评估[J].高电压技术,2007,33(3):186-188.LI Jun,DONG Li-wen,ZHAO Hong.The aging and lifeevaluation of oil-immersed power transformer[J].HighVoltage Engineering,2007,33(3):186-188.
[13]BILLINLON R,PANDEY M.Reliability worth assessmentin a development country[J].IEEE Trans.on Power Sys-tem,1999,14(4):1226-1231.
[14]BILLINTON R,ALLAN R N.Reliability evaluation ofpower systems[M].New York and London:Plenum Press,1996.
[15]GILANI A S,WHLTTAKER A S,FENVES G L,et al.Seismic evaluation of 550 kV porcelain transformer bush-ings[M].USA:Pacific Earthquake Engineering ResearchCenter,1999.
[16]BELLORINI S,SALVETTI M,BETTINALI M,et al.Seismicqualification of transformer high voltage bushings[J].IEEETransaction on Power Delivery.1998,13(4):1208-1213.
[17]ERSOY S,SAADEGHVAZIRI M A.Seismic response oftransformer-bushing systems[J].IEEE Transactions onPower Delivery,2004,19(1):131-137.
[18]IEEE Std.693—1997.IEEE recommended practice forseismic design of substations[S].
[19]ANAGNOS T.Development of an electrical substation e-quipment performance database for evaluation of equip-ment fragilities[R].USE:Pacific Gas and Electric and thePacific Earthquake Engineering Center,1999.
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