东北地震活动性短期预报方法研究
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摘要
研究了1970年以来东北地区发生的MS≥5·0浅源地震孕育过程中地震活动性参数和地震活动图像的变化特征,并对地震活动性参数进行了比较系统地综合预报效能评价,结果显示:东北9次(组)浅震地震前,所研究的5项地震活动性参数中,88·9%出现了持续3个月以上的短期异常变化,且5项参数R值评分结果都满足97·5%的置信水平;88·9%地震前震源区附近出现了孕震空区,有87·5%孕震空区在空区边缘或空区内部出现了ML≥4·0逼近地震,逼近地震以单个或成对的形式出现。66·7%的地震在震源区附近出现了地震条带异常。最后给出东北地区中强震的短期预报方法,这对未来东北地区的地震预报工作将起着一定的参考意义。
In this paper, the characteristics variation of seismicity parameters and seismicity patterns of shallow source earthquakes of M_S≥5.0 occurred in the Northeast China since 1970 are studied,and the prediction efficiency evaluation of seismicity parameters is also studied . The result indicates that of shallow source earthquake groups, about 88.9% of all occurred short-term anomalous variation in 5 types of seismicity parameters and continued for three months, while the R-value prediction evaluation reaches the confidence level of 97.5% in 5 parameters, and 88.9% of all occurred pregnant empty districts near the focus region before the main earthquakes. Among them, there were 87.5% empty districts that approaching earthquakes of M_L≥4.0 occurred in the verge or inside the empty districts. The impending earthquake occurred by single or conjugated distribution. The number of earthquakes with which anomaly strip occurred near the focus region before shock is 66.7% of the total. Finally, a method for the short-term forecast of moderate and strong earthquake in Northeast China is presented. It is useful for reference to the earthquake prediction of the Northeast China in the future.
In this paper, the characteristics variation of seismicity parameters and seismicity patterns of shallow source earthquakes of M_S≥5.0 occurred in the Northeast China since 1970 are studied,and the prediction efficiency evaluation of seismicity parameters is also studied . The result indicates that of shallow source earthquake groups, about 88.9% of all occurred short-term anomalous variation in 5 types of seismicity parameters and continued for three months, while the R-value prediction evaluation reaches the confidence level of 97.5% in 5 parameters, and 88.9% of all occurred pregnant empty districts near the focus region before the main earthquakes. Among them, there were 87.5% empty districts that approaching earthquakes of M_L≥4.0 occurred in the verge or inside the empty districts. The impending earthquake occurred by single or conjugated distribution. The number of earthquakes with which anomaly strip occurred near the focus region before shock is 66.7% of the total. Finally, a method for the short-term forecast of moderate and strong earthquake in Northeast China is presented. It is useful for reference to the earthquake prediction of the Northeast China in the future.
引文
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LuYuanzhong,ShenJianwenandWangWei.1982.SeismicgapintheMainlandofChina[R].ACollectionofPapersofInternationalSymposiumonContinentalSeismicityandEarthquakePrediction(ISCSEP)
刘蒲雄,陈章立.1989.地震预报方法实用化研究文集———地震学专辑(地震条带及其在地震预报中应用)[M].北京学术书刊出版社
陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉等.1985.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社
梅世蓉,冯德益等.1993.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社
全蓥道,吴开统.1987.东北和邻区地震活动的相关性[J].东北地震研究,3(4):1~10
吴戈等.1994.东北大陆历史地震研究[M].四川:成都地图出版社
郭培兰.2006.广西及邻区中等地震地震活动参数时间扫描异常特征[J].地震地磁观测与研究,27(1):1~7
许绍燮.1989.地震预报方法实用化研究文集-地震学专辑(地震预报能力评分)[M].北京学术书刊出版社
于龙伟.1987.东北中强震和强震的时空分布特征[J].东北地震研究,3(1):11~22
于龙伟.1989.东北中强震的孕震机理[J].东北地震研究,5(3):5~13
于龙伟,卢群.1993.2005年前东北地区地震活动趋势预测[J].东北地震研究,9(1):1~13
赵文峰.1985.东北大陆未来十年地震危险形势的估计[J].东北地震研究,1(1):3~14
赵振.1991.中国东北部及其邻近地区地震活动时空特征[J].中国地震,7(4):22~32
朱兆才.1988.用灰色系统理论和可公度性理论联合估计东北的地震危险性[J].东北地震研究,4(2):29~38
LuYuanzhong,ShenJianwenandWangWei.1982.SeismicgapintheMainlandofChina[R].ACollectionofPapersofInternationalSymposiumonContinentalSeismicityandEarthquakePrediction(ISCSEP)
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