新疆M_S≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断
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摘要
在时间对称性方面,通过可公度信息提取方法和蝴蝶结构法对新疆MS≥7地震的可能时间进行分析,认为新疆在2015年发生MS≥7地震的信号较强。在空间对称性方面,对新疆MS≥7地震信息统计分析,发现形成的4个四边形存在关于80°E经线及40°N纬线对称的规律,即"钟摆四边形结构"。经向上,"三点同侧,往返迁移"。纬向上存在"三北一南"与"两南两北"相互转换的空间迁移规律。由此判断2015年新疆MS≥7地震的震中位置大致位于80°E经线以东,40°N纬线以北。在信息预测方面更加逼近地震三要素的趋势预测内容,为今后新疆地震统计趋势研究提供了参考。
Commensurability reflects the symmetry of time and space.It is a macro thought based on the information system.In the time symmetry aspect: we analyzed the possible occurring time of the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade using the method of commensurability information extract and butterfly structure.We believe that there is a strong signal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade will occur in Xinjiang in 2015.In the space symmetry aspect: we found there were four symmetrical rectangles whose symmetry axes are 80°E longitude and 40°N latitude,known as "pendulum rectangle structure";In the longitude direction,three points of the rectangle placed on the same side of the axis and exchanged in the symmetrical rectangle;In the latitude direction,the space alter discipline of "three north one south" and "two north two south" exchange showed up.According to these,the MS≥7 earthquake in 2015 will occur on the eastern side of 80°E longitude and northern side of 40°N latitude.Our research is more closely to the three factor earthquake tendency forecast in information forecast aspect.And it provides a reference to the research of earthquake tendency statistics in Xinjiang.
Commensurability reflects the symmetry of time and space.It is a macro thought based on the information system.In the time symmetry aspect: we analyzed the possible occurring time of the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade using the method of commensurability information extract and butterfly structure.We believe that there is a strong signal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade will occur in Xinjiang in 2015.In the space symmetry aspect: we found there were four symmetrical rectangles whose symmetry axes are 80°E longitude and 40°N latitude,known as "pendulum rectangle structure";In the longitude direction,three points of the rectangle placed on the same side of the axis and exchanged in the symmetrical rectangle;In the latitude direction,the space alter discipline of "three north one south" and "two north two south" exchange showed up.According to these,the MS≥7 earthquake in 2015 will occur on the eastern side of 80°E longitude and northern side of 40°N latitude.Our research is more closely to the three factor earthquake tendency forecast in information forecast aspect.And it provides a reference to the research of earthquake tendency statistics in Xinjiang.
引文
[1]杨发义.新疆地震构造带及近期地震活动趋势[J].新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版),1993,(1):66-71.
[2]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19-23.
[3]曲延军,王海涛.模糊聚类分析方法用于新疆地震趋势预测的初步研究[J].内陆地震,1988,2(2):190-200.
[4]赵翠萍,王海涛.新疆地震活动的时间分布特征[J].内陆地震,1991,5(1):56-64.
[5]白超英.用马尔柯夫模型讨论新疆境内MS≥6地震的区域迁移概率分布[J].内陆地震,1986,3(4):308-313.
[6]苏乃秦.新疆北天山MS≥5.0地震前的中长期地震活动空间图像特征[J].内陆地震,2002,16(3):224-234.
[7]朱令人,陈松涛.初探新疆强震活动的可公度性[J].地震,1985,(3):10-14.
[8]朱令人.强震活动的可公度性可公度性研究——以新疆乌恰—帕米尔大震为例[J].西北地震学报,1987,9(3):99-102.
[9]王兰英,门可佩.有序性分析与新疆7级强震预测[J].高原地震,1996,8(4):19-26.
[10]门可佩,裴青莉.新疆地区7级强震的有序性及其预测意义的再认识[J].高原地震,1997,9(4):46-53.
[11]门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(3):418-423.
[12]门可佩.新疆及其邻区M≥7强震的预测研究[J].西北地震学报,1994,16(4):29-35.
[13]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.
[14]李奴义.浅谈对称概念及其在自然科学中的意义[J].青海师范大学民族师范学院学报,2002,13(2):48-49.
[15]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[16]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.
[2]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19-23.
[3]曲延军,王海涛.模糊聚类分析方法用于新疆地震趋势预测的初步研究[J].内陆地震,1988,2(2):190-200.
[4]赵翠萍,王海涛.新疆地震活动的时间分布特征[J].内陆地震,1991,5(1):56-64.
[5]白超英.用马尔柯夫模型讨论新疆境内MS≥6地震的区域迁移概率分布[J].内陆地震,1986,3(4):308-313.
[6]苏乃秦.新疆北天山MS≥5.0地震前的中长期地震活动空间图像特征[J].内陆地震,2002,16(3):224-234.
[7]朱令人,陈松涛.初探新疆强震活动的可公度性[J].地震,1985,(3):10-14.
[8]朱令人.强震活动的可公度性可公度性研究——以新疆乌恰—帕米尔大震为例[J].西北地震学报,1987,9(3):99-102.
[9]王兰英,门可佩.有序性分析与新疆7级强震预测[J].高原地震,1996,8(4):19-26.
[10]门可佩,裴青莉.新疆地区7级强震的有序性及其预测意义的再认识[J].高原地震,1997,9(4):46-53.
[11]门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(3):418-423.
[12]门可佩.新疆及其邻区M≥7强震的预测研究[J].西北地震学报,1994,16(4):29-35.
[13]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.
[14]李奴义.浅谈对称概念及其在自然科学中的意义[J].青海师范大学民族师范学院学报,2002,13(2):48-49.
[15]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[16]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.
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