基于GIS与数值模拟的三峡水库库首区诱发地震危险性评价
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摘要
采用GIS与数值模拟相结合的方法对三峡水库库首区诱发地震危险性进行评价。通过研究水库诱发地震的影响因素,建立模型进行数值模拟。在GIS平台上,综合数值模拟结果与诱发地震监测结果,建立危险性评价数据库。在GIS支持下,采用最大拉应变准则判别拉伸破坏,采用摩尔-库仑准则判别剪切破坏,对单元进行评价。利用诱发地震监测资料,以发生诱发地震单元的第一主应力、第三主应力、位移作为危险单元的标准,对单元进行二次评价。研究结果表明,建立同一GIS平台下的水库区地质环境、监测资料数据库是建立多因素综合评价模型的基础。采用地震评估模型对模拟结果进行评估,结合监测资料对评估成果进行修正,在三峡库首区水库诱发地震危险性评价中具有一定的可信度。
GIS and numerical simulation techniques are used to quantitative risk assessment of induced earthquake in the Three-Gorge reservoir head area.The technical route is that the simulation model is set up through the analysis of affecting factors.The simulation result is obtained with FLAC 3D.The assessment database is set up by the result of simulation and monitoring data.Each unit is estimated with the maximum tensile strain criterion for judging rock tensile failure and the Mohr-Coulomb criterion for judging rock shear failure.The unit is further estimated by comparing the first principal stress,the third principal stress and the displacement where the induced earthquake had taken place after impounding of the reservoir on a GIS platform.The result shows that building database containing various data based on the same GIS platform is the basement of integrated factor model.The result of risk assessment possesses the reliability in the Three-Gorges reservoir head area.The simulation result is also calculated with the earthquake model and the calculated result is further modified with the monitored data.
GIS and numerical simulation techniques are used to quantitative risk assessment of induced earthquake in the Three-Gorge reservoir head area.The technical route is that the simulation model is set up through the analysis of affecting factors.The simulation result is obtained with FLAC 3D.The assessment database is set up by the result of simulation and monitoring data.Each unit is estimated with the maximum tensile strain criterion for judging rock tensile failure and the Mohr-Coulomb criterion for judging rock shear failure.The unit is further estimated by comparing the first principal stress,the third principal stress and the displacement where the induced earthquake had taken place after impounding of the reservoir on a GIS platform.The result shows that building database containing various data based on the same GIS platform is the basement of integrated factor model.The result of risk assessment possesses the reliability in the Three-Gorges reservoir head area.The simulation result is also calculated with the earthquake model and the calculated result is further modified with the monitored data.
引文
[1]张秋文,王乘,李峰.长江三峡工程库首及周缘地区水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估研究[J].水电能源科学,2005,23(4):21～26.Zhang qiuwen,Wang cheng,Li feng.Quantitative Prediction and Assessment of Induced Seismicity Risk in Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir Head Area and its Neighboring Area.Water Resources and Power,2005,23(4):21～26.
[2]夏金梧,李长安,王旭.神经网络在三峡水库诱发地震预测中的应用[J].人民长江,2007,38(2):8～11.Xia jinwu,Li changan,Wang xu.Application of neural network theory in prediction of earthquake induced by TGP reservoir.Yan-gtze River,2007,38(2):8～11.
[3]杨清源,陈献程,胡毓良等.应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级[J].华南地震,1996,16(2):75～79.Yang qingyuan,Chen xiancheng,Hu yuliang etal.Forecast the maximum magnitude of induced reservoir earthquake on the sanxia project of Yangtze river using grey cluster method.South China Journal of Seismology,1996,16(2):75～79.
[4]Bell M.Lee&Nur Amose.Strength Change Due to Reservoir-in-duced Pore Pressure and Stresses and Application to Lake Oroville[J].Geophysical Research,1978,83:4469～4482.
[5]Talwani,Pradeep,Acree S.Pore Pressure Diffusion and the Mech-anism of Reservoir-induced Seismicity[J].Pure&Application Geophysics,1985,122:947～965.
[6]Simpson,David W,Narasimhan T N.Inhomogeneities in Rock Properties and Their Influence on Reservoir-induced Seismicity[A].Knoll Induced Seismicity[C].Rotterdan:Balkema,1992:345～359.
[7]Gupta Hark K.Short-term Earthquake Forecasting May be Feasi-ble at Koyna,India[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:353～357.
[8]Gupta Hark K.A Review of Recent Studies of Triggered Earth-quakes by Artificial Water Reservoirs with Special Emphasis on Earthquskes in Koyna,India[J].Earth-science Reviews,2002,58:279～310.
[9]高士钧,曾心传,陈永成等.水库诱发的孔压变化及应力特征[J].西北地震学报,1990,12(1):87～95.Gao shijun,Zeng xinchuan,Chen yongcheng etal.The Pore Pres-sure Variation and Stress Characteristics Induced by Reservoir.Northwestern Seismological Journal,1990,12(1):87～95.
[10]Shen liying,Chang baoqi.Application of Stress-pore Pressure Coupling Theory of Porous Media in the Xingfengjiang Reservoir Earthquakes[J].Pure&Applied Geophysics,1995,145:123～137.
[11]颜玉定,李亚林,张专等.岩石水压致裂和诱发地震的定量研究[J].2005,21(21):193～206.Yan yuding,Li yalin,Zhang zhuan etal.A Research of Rock Ex-periment on Hydraulic Fracturing and Induced Earthquake.Earthquake Research in China,2005,21(21):193～206.
[12]陈蜀俊,姚运生,曾佐勋等.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场三维数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(S2):5611～5618.Chen shujun,Yao yunsheng,Zeng zuoxun etal.Study on Numeri-cal Simulation of Tectonic Stress Field before and after Reservoir Impounding in the Head Area of the Three Gorge.Chinese Jour-nal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(S2):5611～5618.
[13]齐文浩,薄景山,李贞德.江口水库诱发地震的有限元分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(6):7～10.Qi wenhao,Bo jingshan,Li zhende.Finite Element Analysis of Jiangkou Reservoir-induced Earthquake.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,26(6):7～10.
[14]刘素梅,徐礼华,彭少民等.水库诱发地震机理研究,武汉理工大学学报,2007,29(2):83～91.Liu sumei,Xu lihua,Peng shaomin etal.Research on the Mecha-nism of Reservoir induced Seismicity.Journal of Wuhan Nuiversi-ty of Technology.2007,29(2):83～91.
[15]周斌,刘涛,文俊武.GIS技术在地震学研究中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):160～164.Zhou bin,Liu tao,Wen junwu.The current application of GIS in earthquake studies.Progress in Geophysics,2005,20(1):160～164.
[16]Dobson J.E.Commentary.A conceputuial Framework for Inter-grating RS,GIS and Geography[J].PE&RS.1993,59(10):1491～1496.
[17]杜培军,郭志达,方涛等.GIS在开采沉陷领域应用及与专业模型的结合[J].武汉大学学报.信息科学版,2003,28(4):463～467.Du peijun,Guo zhida,Fang tao etal.Application of GIS to Mining Subsidence and Combination of GIS with Professional Model.Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2003,28(4):463～467.
[18]袁曲,董建辉.三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探[J]地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(S):37～47.Yuan qu,Dong jianhui.Preliminary study on the mechanism of the TGP reservoir-induced earthquakes and future seismic tenden-cies.Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2005,26(S):37～47.
[2]夏金梧,李长安,王旭.神经网络在三峡水库诱发地震预测中的应用[J].人民长江,2007,38(2):8～11.Xia jinwu,Li changan,Wang xu.Application of neural network theory in prediction of earthquake induced by TGP reservoir.Yan-gtze River,2007,38(2):8～11.
[3]杨清源,陈献程,胡毓良等.应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级[J].华南地震,1996,16(2):75～79.Yang qingyuan,Chen xiancheng,Hu yuliang etal.Forecast the maximum magnitude of induced reservoir earthquake on the sanxia project of Yangtze river using grey cluster method.South China Journal of Seismology,1996,16(2):75～79.
[4]Bell M.Lee&Nur Amose.Strength Change Due to Reservoir-in-duced Pore Pressure and Stresses and Application to Lake Oroville[J].Geophysical Research,1978,83:4469～4482.
[5]Talwani,Pradeep,Acree S.Pore Pressure Diffusion and the Mech-anism of Reservoir-induced Seismicity[J].Pure&Application Geophysics,1985,122:947～965.
[6]Simpson,David W,Narasimhan T N.Inhomogeneities in Rock Properties and Their Influence on Reservoir-induced Seismicity[A].Knoll Induced Seismicity[C].Rotterdan:Balkema,1992:345～359.
[7]Gupta Hark K.Short-term Earthquake Forecasting May be Feasi-ble at Koyna,India[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:353～357.
[8]Gupta Hark K.A Review of Recent Studies of Triggered Earth-quakes by Artificial Water Reservoirs with Special Emphasis on Earthquskes in Koyna,India[J].Earth-science Reviews,2002,58:279～310.
[9]高士钧,曾心传,陈永成等.水库诱发的孔压变化及应力特征[J].西北地震学报,1990,12(1):87～95.Gao shijun,Zeng xinchuan,Chen yongcheng etal.The Pore Pres-sure Variation and Stress Characteristics Induced by Reservoir.Northwestern Seismological Journal,1990,12(1):87～95.
[10]Shen liying,Chang baoqi.Application of Stress-pore Pressure Coupling Theory of Porous Media in the Xingfengjiang Reservoir Earthquakes[J].Pure&Applied Geophysics,1995,145:123～137.
[11]颜玉定,李亚林,张专等.岩石水压致裂和诱发地震的定量研究[J].2005,21(21):193～206.Yan yuding,Li yalin,Zhang zhuan etal.A Research of Rock Ex-periment on Hydraulic Fracturing and Induced Earthquake.Earthquake Research in China,2005,21(21):193～206.
[12]陈蜀俊,姚运生,曾佐勋等.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场三维数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(S2):5611～5618.Chen shujun,Yao yunsheng,Zeng zuoxun etal.Study on Numeri-cal Simulation of Tectonic Stress Field before and after Reservoir Impounding in the Head Area of the Three Gorge.Chinese Jour-nal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(S2):5611～5618.
[13]齐文浩,薄景山,李贞德.江口水库诱发地震的有限元分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(6):7～10.Qi wenhao,Bo jingshan,Li zhende.Finite Element Analysis of Jiangkou Reservoir-induced Earthquake.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,26(6):7～10.
[14]刘素梅,徐礼华,彭少民等.水库诱发地震机理研究,武汉理工大学学报,2007,29(2):83～91.Liu sumei,Xu lihua,Peng shaomin etal.Research on the Mecha-nism of Reservoir induced Seismicity.Journal of Wuhan Nuiversi-ty of Technology.2007,29(2):83～91.
[15]周斌,刘涛,文俊武.GIS技术在地震学研究中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):160～164.Zhou bin,Liu tao,Wen junwu.The current application of GIS in earthquake studies.Progress in Geophysics,2005,20(1):160～164.
[16]Dobson J.E.Commentary.A conceputuial Framework for Inter-grating RS,GIS and Geography[J].PE&RS.1993,59(10):1491～1496.
[17]杜培军,郭志达,方涛等.GIS在开采沉陷领域应用及与专业模型的结合[J].武汉大学学报.信息科学版,2003,28(4):463～467.Du peijun,Guo zhida,Fang tao etal.Application of GIS to Mining Subsidence and Combination of GIS with Professional Model.Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2003,28(4):463～467.
[18]袁曲,董建辉.三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探[J]地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(S):37～47.Yuan qu,Dong jianhui.Preliminary study on the mechanism of the TGP reservoir-induced earthquakes and future seismic tenden-cies.Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2005,26(S):37～47.
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