地震引发城市燃气管线事故的定量风险评价
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摘要
为了对地震作为诱发事件导致燃气管线的风险进行量化,提出了地震引发城市燃气管线事故的定量风险评价程序,基于离散化的地震PCA值和地震预期重现时间给出可能的损坏概率和参考事故场景,并进行事故场景的后果评价,最终实现燃气管线个人风险和社会风险的表征。此外,基于Matlab编写了适用于该风险评价程序的GUI程序,结合淮南市城市次高压燃气管线的具体实例,实现了风险表征并研究了地震参数变化对风险变化的影响。
Earthquake can cause severe damage to urban pipelines that carrying natural gas and may induce accidents such as jet fire and vapor cloud explosion.Therefore,in order to quantify the risk of city gas pipelines that triggered by seismic events,a set of quantitative risk assessment procedures is proposed for city gas pipelines accidents. Based on discrete values of PGA and expected earthquake return time,the procedures provide possible damage probability to the pipelines and also reference accident scenarios.In this paper,jet fire and vapor cloud explosion are considered as the reference scenarios. According to the accident scenarios,the authors have also evaluated the consequences corresponding to different PGA values.Both probability of death and accident happening were calculated by using 'probit' function which is widely used in the quantitative risk assessment methods.Combining death probability and happening probability of accident scenarios,characterizations of individual risk and societal risk due to gas pipelines are presented at the end of procedure.The procedures of risk calculation are realized with MATLAB-based risk assessment program with a specific example of Huainan City s subhigh pressure gas pipelines.Moreover,the authors have studied the change of seismic parameters that impact on the risk changes.The numbers of death under 10~(-4),10~(-5)and 10~(-6)risk levels were also predicted with different PGA values.The results showed that individual and societal risk due to earthquake is relatively higher compared to those without earthquake happening.Individual risk map of Huainan was also presented in this paper.In addition,the results showed that this quantitative risk assessment procedures set is practicable because of simple calculation and ability to meet the needs of engineering applications. Based on the calculated results,the decision makers can come out with some proper adjustments or layout plans to ultimately reduce the loss of life and property.
Earthquake can cause severe damage to urban pipelines that carrying natural gas and may induce accidents such as jet fire and vapor cloud explosion.Therefore,in order to quantify the risk of city gas pipelines that triggered by seismic events,a set of quantitative risk assessment procedures is proposed for city gas pipelines accidents. Based on discrete values of PGA and expected earthquake return time,the procedures provide possible damage probability to the pipelines and also reference accident scenarios.In this paper,jet fire and vapor cloud explosion are considered as the reference scenarios. According to the accident scenarios,the authors have also evaluated the consequences corresponding to different PGA values.Both probability of death and accident happening were calculated by using 'probit' function which is widely used in the quantitative risk assessment methods.Combining death probability and happening probability of accident scenarios,characterizations of individual risk and societal risk due to gas pipelines are presented at the end of procedure.The procedures of risk calculation are realized with MATLAB-based risk assessment program with a specific example of Huainan City s subhigh pressure gas pipelines.Moreover,the authors have studied the change of seismic parameters that impact on the risk changes.The numbers of death under 10~(-4),10~(-5)and 10~(-6)risk levels were also predicted with different PGA values.The results showed that individual and societal risk due to earthquake is relatively higher compared to those without earthquake happening.Individual risk map of Huainan was also presented in this paper.In addition,the results showed that this quantitative risk assessment procedures set is practicable because of simple calculation and ability to meet the needs of engineering applications. Based on the calculated results,the decision makers can come out with some proper adjustments or layout plans to ultimately reduce the loss of life and property.
引文
[1] LIU Fei(刘斐),LIU Mao(刘茂).Quantitative risk for urban pipeline carrying natural gas [ J ].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis:Natural Science Edition(南开大学学报:自然科学版),2006,39(6) : 31-35．
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[4] XU Yabo(徐亚博),QIAN Xinming(钱新明),LIU Zhenyi(刘振翼).Quantitative risk analysis on the leakage of compressed natural gas pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2008,18(1) : 146-149．
[5] GAO Junbo(高俊波),GUO Yue(郭越),WANG Xiaofeng(王晓峰)Research of quantitative risk analysis model for urban gas pipeline network[J]Journal of Basic Science and Engineering(应用基础与工程科学学报),2008,16(12) :280-286．
[6] YANG Linjuan(杨林娟),SHEN Shiming(沈士明).Quantitative risk assessment for natural gas distribution networks [ J ].Pressure Vessel Technology(压力容器),2007,24(9) :29 34．
[7] CHOPRA A K.Dynamics of structures: theory and applications to earthquake engineering [ M].3 ed.New York: Prentice Hall,2007．
[8] BAKER W E,COX P A,WESTINE P S,et al.Explosion hazards and evaluation [ M].Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific Pub.Co.,1983．
[9] JONES N,TALASLIDIS D G,BREBBIA C A,et al.Structures under shock and impact V [ M].Southampton: Computational Mechanics Publications,1998．
[10] FABBROCINO G,IERVOLINO I,ORLANDO F,et al.Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas [ J ].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2005,123(1/2/3) : 61-69．
[11] SALZANO E,IERVOLINO I,FABBROCINO G.Seismic risk of atmospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis [J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2003,16(5) : 403-409．
[12] TAM V H Y,CORR B.Development of a limit state approach for de- sign against gas explosions [ J ].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2000,13(6) : 443-447．
[ 13] HAZUS.Earthquake loss estimation methodology [ R].Menlo Park: National Institute of Building Sciences,1997．
[14] EIDINGER J M.Earthquake fragility formulation for water systems [ R].Washington DC: American Lifelines Alliance,2001．
[15] O' ROURKE M J,EERI M,SO P.Seismic fragility curves for ongrade steel tanks[J].Earthquake Spectra,2000,16(44) : 801-815．
[16] LAHEIJ G M H,POST J G,ALE B J M.Standard methods for landuse planning to determine the effects on societal risk [ J ].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71 ( 1 ) : 269-282．
[2] JO Y-D,AHN B J.Analysis of hazard area associated with hydrogen gas transmission pipelines[J] .International Journal of Hydrogen Energy,2006,31(14) : 2122-2130．
[3] DZIUBINSKI M,FRATCZAK M,MARKOWSKI A S.Aspects of risk analysis associated with major failures of fuel pipelines[ J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2006,19(5) : 399 408．
[4] XU Yabo(徐亚博),QIAN Xinming(钱新明),LIU Zhenyi(刘振翼).Quantitative risk analysis on the leakage of compressed natural gas pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2008,18(1) : 146-149．
[5] GAO Junbo(高俊波),GUO Yue(郭越),WANG Xiaofeng(王晓峰)Research of quantitative risk analysis model for urban gas pipeline network[J]Journal of Basic Science and Engineering(应用基础与工程科学学报),2008,16(12) :280-286．
[6] YANG Linjuan(杨林娟),SHEN Shiming(沈士明).Quantitative risk assessment for natural gas distribution networks [ J ].Pressure Vessel Technology(压力容器),2007,24(9) :29 34．
[7] CHOPRA A K.Dynamics of structures: theory and applications to earthquake engineering [ M].3 ed.New York: Prentice Hall,2007．
[8] BAKER W E,COX P A,WESTINE P S,et al.Explosion hazards and evaluation [ M].Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific Pub.Co.,1983．
[9] JONES N,TALASLIDIS D G,BREBBIA C A,et al.Structures under shock and impact V [ M].Southampton: Computational Mechanics Publications,1998．
[10] FABBROCINO G,IERVOLINO I,ORLANDO F,et al.Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas [ J ].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2005,123(1/2/3) : 61-69．
[11] SALZANO E,IERVOLINO I,FABBROCINO G.Seismic risk of atmospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis [J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2003,16(5) : 403-409．
[12] TAM V H Y,CORR B.Development of a limit state approach for de- sign against gas explosions [ J ].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2000,13(6) : 443-447．
[ 13] HAZUS.Earthquake loss estimation methodology [ R].Menlo Park: National Institute of Building Sciences,1997．
[14] EIDINGER J M.Earthquake fragility formulation for water systems [ R].Washington DC: American Lifelines Alliance,2001．
[15] O' ROURKE M J,EERI M,SO P.Seismic fragility curves for ongrade steel tanks[J].Earthquake Spectra,2000,16(44) : 801-815．
[16] LAHEIJ G M H,POST J G,ALE B J M.Standard methods for landuse planning to determine the effects on societal risk [ J ].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71 ( 1 ) : 269-282．
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