汶川地震前成都市避难场所应急能力评估
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摘要
为判断地震避难场所紧急避难能力是否满足居民灾后紧急避难阶段的需求,提出基于L-A模型的避难场所应急能力评估方法。该方法充分考虑紧急避难场所容纳能力、居民空间分布状况、紧急疏散路径因素,采用空间网络分析方法确定避难场所服务范围,将区域未能接纳人数及地震避难场所利用率作为避难场所评估分析的重要因素,并综合运用GIS技术实现评估分析的可视化。最后以成都市现有避难场所布局为例进行分析,结果表明:在震后紧急避难阶段成都中心城区有一定数量的人群未能安全避难且紧急避难场所资源分布不均衡。
In order to determine whether city earthquake emergency shelters resources meet the needs of citizens for post-disaster shelter,an assessment method for earthquake emergency shelters evacuation capacity is proposed based on L-A(location-allocation) model.This method takes a full consideration of the factors such as carrying capacity of emergency shelters,the distribution of citizens and emergency evacuation routes,and determines the shelter service scope by using network analysis method.Meanwhile,it takes the emergency capability including the number of people not accepted and the utilization rate of earthquake shelters as the important evaluation factors,and realizes the visualization of the evaluation by using GIS technology.At last,with Chengdu city as an example,this method is demonstrated.The result shows that certain number of citizens in Chengdu downtown can not be safely evacuated and emergency shelters resources are very unevenly distributed.
In order to determine whether city earthquake emergency shelters resources meet the needs of citizens for post-disaster shelter,an assessment method for earthquake emergency shelters evacuation capacity is proposed based on L-A(location-allocation) model.This method takes a full consideration of the factors such as carrying capacity of emergency shelters,the distribution of citizens and emergency evacuation routes,and determines the shelter service scope by using network analysis method.Meanwhile,it takes the emergency capability including the number of people not accepted and the utilization rate of earthquake shelters as the important evaluation factors,and realizes the visualization of the evaluation by using GIS technology.At last,with Chengdu city as an example,this method is demonstrated.The result shows that certain number of citizens in Chengdu downtown can not be safely evacuated and emergency shelters resources are very unevenly distributed.
引文
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[3]叶明武,王军,陈振楼,等.基于3S的城市绿地公园防震避难适宜性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(5):156-163.YE Ming-wu,WANG Jun,CHEN Zhen-lou,et al.Suitability evaluation of urban green park for earthquake disa-sterprevention and refuge based on 3S technology[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(5):156-163.
[4]吴宗之,黄典剑,蔡嗣经,等.基于模糊集值理论的城市应急避难所应急适应能力评价方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(6):100-103.WU Zong-zhi,HUANG Dian-jian,CAI Si-jing,et al.On assessment method to emergency shelter adaptation by using thestatistic theory for fuzzy centralization[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2005,5(6):100-103.
[5]陈志芬,李强,王瑜,等.基于有界数据包络分析(DEA)模型的应急避难场所效率评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(11):152-159.CHEN Zhi-fen,LI Qiang,WANG Yu,et al.Efficiency assessment of emergency shelter based on bounded variables DEAmodel[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(11):152-159.
[6]曹彦波,李永强,曹刻,等.基于GIS技术的地震应急异地疏散接受能力判断模型研究[J].地震研究,2008,31(S2):623-628.CAO Yan-bo,LI Yong-qiang,CAO Ke,et al.GIS-based earthquake emergency wvacuation model[J].Journal of Seis-mological Research,2008,31(S2):623-628.
[7]谢军飞,李延明,李树华.北京城市公园绿地应急避险功能布局研究[J].中国园林,2007,23(7):23-27.XIE Jun-fei,LI Yan-ming,LI Shu-hua.The layout study on the emergency and disaster-prevention functions of the greenspace of Beijing city parks[J].Chinese Landscape Architecture,2007,23(7):23-27.
[8]张军,张炜.郑州市地震等重大自然灾害应急避难场所规划研究[J].华北地震科学,2010,28(4):27-30.ZHANG Jun,ZHANG Wei.Study on earthquakes and other major natural disasters emergency shelter planning ofZhengzhou city[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2010,28(4):27-30.
[9]叶明武,王军,刘耀龙,等.基于GIS的上海中心城区公园避难可达性研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2008,24(2):96-98.YE Ming-Wu,WANG Jun,LIU Yao-long,et al.Study on refuge accessibility of park in inner--City of Shanghai based onGIS technique[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2008,24(2):96-98.
[10]李刚,马东辉,苏经宇,等.城市地震应急避难场所规划方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2006,32(10):901-905.LI Gang,MA Dong-hui,SU Jing-yu,et al.Study of urban earthquake emergency shelters planning[J].Journal of BeijingUniversity of Technology,2006,32(10):901-905.
[11]RADKEJ,MU L.Spatial decomposition,modeling and mapping service region to predict access to social programs[J].Geographic Information Sciences,2000,6(2):105-112.
[12]成都市统计局.成都统计年鉴2007[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.Chengdu City Bureau of Statistics.Chengdu Statistical Yearbook 2007[M].Beijing:China Statistics PublishingHouse,2008.
[13]成都市规划设计研究院.成都市中心城应急避难场所布局规划(2008—2020)[R],2008:64-75.Chengdu Institute of Planning&Design.Planning of Emergency Shelters in Chengdu Central City(2008-2020)[R],2008:64-75.
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