技术过度自信对工程项目建设的影响及对策研究——东日本大地震及其次生灾害的思考
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摘要
以东日本大地震及其次生灾害为例,从人为因素分析入手,揭示出技术过度自信是东日本大地震及其次生灾害的一个重要的人为因素。文章围绕技术过度自信的概念、类型、成因及作用机理进行了探讨。分析了技术过度自信对工程项目建设存在的影响,即决策风险、勘察风险、设计风险、施工风险和监理风险。并从控制机制和制度、交流与学习、培训和宣传、理论研究等四个方面提出了预防或减少技术过度自信的对策及建议。
Technological overconfidence is identified to be an important human factor via analysis of the Great East Japan Earthquake and its secondary disasters.The paper discusses the concept,the classifications,the causes and mechanism of technological overconfidence.The influence of technological overconfidence on project construction,namely,decision-making risk,reconnaissance risk,design risk,construction risk,and supervision risk,is analyzed.Some countermeasures and suggestions focusing on control mechanisms and systems,communication and learning,training and publicity,and theoretical research are proposed to prevent technological overconfidence.
Technological overconfidence is identified to be an important human factor via analysis of the Great East Japan Earthquake and its secondary disasters.The paper discusses the concept,the classifications,the causes and mechanism of technological overconfidence.The influence of technological overconfidence on project construction,namely,decision-making risk,reconnaissance risk,design risk,construction risk,and supervision risk,is analyzed.Some countermeasures and suggestions focusing on control mechanisms and systems,communication and learning,training and publicity,and theoretical research are proposed to prevent technological overconfidence.
引文
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[2]姜莉.日本地震防灾和和预报研究零讯四则[J].国际地震动态,1982(12):28-30.
[3]罗岚.兵库县南部地震对日本地震预报研究和防震减灾事业的推进[J].国际地震动态,1999(5):19-21.
[4]张乐.日本地震海啸已致2800余人遇难[EB/OL].http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2011-03/15/content_210762.htm(2011-3-15).
[5]吕宁丰,陶明生,黄南.长江南京段大堤可抗8级地震[EB/OL].http://jsqd.xinhuanet.com/xin_wen_zhong_xin/2011-03/22/content_22339246.htm(2011-3-22).
[6]萩原幸男,王树义.对东京直下型地震和东海大地震发生时间的分析[J].国际地震动态,1988(5):34-37.
[7]梁凯利,王峰.日本东海大地震预测预报百年沉浮[J].国际地震动态,2011(6):9-11.
[8]吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(4):415-438.
[9]百科名片.福岛核电站[EB/OL].http://baike.baidu.com/view/10078 87.htm(2011-6-14).
[10]张旭辉.福岛核震启示录[J].环境保护,2011(6):8-15.
[11]马瑞.潘多拉盒子再度打开——世界各国应对福岛核事故综述[J].环境保护,2011(6):16-22.
[12]De Bondt,Werner F.M.;Richard H.Thaler.Financialdecision-making in markets and firms:A behavioralperspective[C].Robert A.Jarrow,Vojislav Maksimovic,William T.Ziemba.Finance.North Holland:ElsevierScience B.V.,1995:385-410.
[13]张征争,黄登仕.CEO过度自信对薪酬合同影响理论综述[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2007(3):114-117.
[14]Weinstein,Neil D..Unrealistic optimism about futurelife events[J].Journal of Personality and SocialPsychology,1980,39(5):806-820.
[15]Adams,J.Stacy.Toward an Understanding of Inequity[J].Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology,1963,67(5):422-436.
[16]Fischhoff,Baruch;Slovic,Paul;Lichtenstein,Sarah.Knowing with Certainty:The Appropriateness of ExtremeConfidence[J].Journal of Experimental Psychology:Human Perception and Performance,1977,3(4):552-564.
[17]杜阳.工程建设单位的质量行为选择及其规范对策研究[J].科技和产业,2011,11(8):71-73.
[18]王克娜.大型工程项目风险管理[D].天津:天津大学,2009.
[19]Barnes,Martin.A long terra view of projectmanagement-its past and its likely future[C].Berlin:16thWorld Congress on Project Management,2002.
[20]Thevendran,Vicknayson;Mawdesley,M.J..Perceptionof human risk factors in construction projects:anexploratory study[J].International Journal of ProjectManagement,2004,22(2):131-137.
[21]百科名片.美国RAH-66科曼奇直升机[EB/OL].http://baike.baidu.com/view/996013.htm(2011-6-14).
[22]傅长盛.龙厦铁路象山隧道14日胜利贯通[EB/OL].http://www.fjsen.com/d/2011-05/16/content_4562731.htm(2011-5-16).
[23]安全管理网.董家山隧道工程“12.22”特别重大瓦斯爆炸事故[EB/OL].http://www.safehoo.com/Case/Case/Mine/201009/51442.shtml(2010-9-25).
[24]朱世强.甘肃山丹在建隧道塌方事故现场目击[EB/OL].http://news.ifeng.com/gundong/detail_2011_04/21/5900904_0.shtml(2011-4-21).
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