四川省汶川地震灾区震后山地灾害综合风险评价
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摘要
汶川地震触发了大量次生山地灾害,震后山地灾害活动风险对灾区的发展规划决策有着重要的参考价值。通过对四川境内震后灾区基础资料的分析和研究,分别对灾区的44个县(市)进行了山地灾害危险性、易损性和风险评价,并以震后灾害点密度对危险性评价结果进行了验证,结果发现二者之间具有线性函数关系。评价结果表明,高度危险区集中于龙门山断裂附近,并且呈现明显的带状分布,面积比例为39.8%;极高易损和高度易损区则主要分布于成都、绵阳、德阳、雅安等大城市周边地区,面积比例为13.1%;高度风险区则主要位于龙门山腹地向山前平原的过渡带,属于高度危险和高度易损的结合部位,面积比例为11.0%。高风险区是今后恢复重建和发展规划中需要重点关注的地区;中度风险区由于灾后恢复重建的推进,其承灾体的易损性将会上升,容易导致其向高度风险转化,也要给予重视。
Wenchuan earthquake caused a variety of secondary mountainous hazards.Risk assessment regarding secondary hazards is therefore very important for reconstruction projects in the affected areas.Based on regional data analysis,assessments of dangerousness,vulnerability,and risk were carried out.A linear relationship was found between dangerousness degree and disaster density.Assessment results show that highly dangerous regions concentrated along Longmengshan fault,accounting for 39.8% of the total area.Regions of high and extremely high vulnerability mainly surrounded the cities of Chengdu,Mianyan,Deyang,and Ya'an,accounting for 13.1% of the total area.Regions of high risk,accounting for 11% of the total area,occupied the transitional zone between Longmeng Mountain and the piedmont plain,which had high dangerousness degree and high vulnerability,respectively.Special attention should be paid to the regions of high risk and vulnerability during the reconstruction.However,the regions of moderate should also be cared as the risk and vulnerability of these areas could be potentially deteriorated due to the rapid expansion of the reconstruction areas.
Wenchuan earthquake caused a variety of secondary mountainous hazards.Risk assessment regarding secondary hazards is therefore very important for reconstruction projects in the affected areas.Based on regional data analysis,assessments of dangerousness,vulnerability,and risk were carried out.A linear relationship was found between dangerousness degree and disaster density.Assessment results show that highly dangerous regions concentrated along Longmengshan fault,accounting for 39.8% of the total area.Regions of high and extremely high vulnerability mainly surrounded the cities of Chengdu,Mianyan,Deyang,and Ya'an,accounting for 13.1% of the total area.Regions of high risk,accounting for 11% of the total area,occupied the transitional zone between Longmeng Mountain and the piedmont plain,which had high dangerousness degree and high vulnerability,respectively.Special attention should be paid to the regions of high risk and vulnerability during the reconstruction.However,the regions of moderate should also be cared as the risk and vulnerability of these areas could be potentially deteriorated due to the rapid expansion of the reconstruction areas.
引文
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[3]谢洪,钟敦伦,矫震,等.2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流[J].山地学报,2009,27(4):501-509.
[4]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川地震触发崩塌滑坡数量及其密度特征分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(3):1-7.
[5]Tang C,Zhu J,Li W L,et al.Rainfall-triggered debrisflows following the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Bull.Eng.Geol.Environ.,2009,68:187-194.
[6]田连权.四川炉霍地震泥石流:泥石流(三)[M].重庆:科学技术文献出版社重庆分社,1986:58-66.
[7]朱平一,罗德富,寇玉贞.西藏古乡沟泥石流发展趋势[J].山地研究,1997,15(4):296-299.
[8]Lin C W,Shieh C L,Yuan B D,et al.Impact of Chi-Chi earthquake on the occurrence of landslides and debrisflows:Example from the Chenyulan River watershed,Nantou,Taiwan[J].Engineering Geology,2003,71:49-61.
[9]崔鹏,柳素清,唐邦兴,等.风景名胜区泥石流研究与防治[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[10]Chen H,Hawkins A B.Relationship between earth-quake disturbance,tropical rainstorms and debrismovement:An overview from Taiwan[J].Bulletin ofEngineering Geology and the Environment,2009,68:161-186.
[11]唐川,丁军,梁京涛.汶川震区北川县城泥石流源地特征的遥感动态分析[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(1):1-7.
[12]丁继新,杨志法,尚彦军.区域泥石流灾害的定量风险分析[J].岩土力学,2006,27(7):1071-1076.
[13]樊晓一,乔建平,陈永波.层次分析法在典型滑坡危险度评价中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):73-77.
[14]刘希林.区域泥石流风险评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):54-60.
[15]许强,陈伟.单体危岩崩塌灾害风险评价方法:以四川省丹巴县危岩崩塌体为例[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):1039-1046.
[16]张春山,李国俊,张业成,等.黄河上游地区崩塌滑坡泥石流地质灾害风险评价[J].地质力学学报,2006,12(2):211-218.
[17]Saaty T L.The Analytic Hierarchy Process[M].NewYork:McGraw-HillCompany,1980:48-52.
[18]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002:84-86.
[19]四川省统计局,国家统计局四川调查总队.四川统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[20]唐邦兴,柳素清.四川省阿坝藏族羌族自治县泥石流及其防治研究[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1993.
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