软土地基堤防工程地震风险评价研究
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摘要
基于软土地基上堤防工程地震破坏的严重性以及土性参数变异性大的特性,将风险分析理论引入堤防工程当中,建立堤防工程地震风险评价方法.针对液化和滑坡两种主要破坏形式结合可靠度理论确定了相应的破坏概率计算模型,并在地震危险性和地震易损性概率分析的基础上,确定了堤防地震经济损失的估算方法,拟定了堤防地震风险评价标准.将该方法应用于闽江下游某吹填砂堤,估算其潜在的地震风险等级为一级.
The earthquake could cause serious damage to the levee projects built in soft soil foundation.Considering the variability of the soil parameters,the risk analysis theory of levee projects were introduced and the seismic risk assessment methods suitable for levee projects were developed.The calculation methods of sandy soil seismic liquefaction risk and seismic landslide risk for levees were established.Based on the earthquake risk and seismic vulnerability probability of levees,the estimate methods of economic losses and risk assessment standards were formulated.Finally,this method were applied in the levee with soft soil foundation built alone Minjiang River downstream.
The earthquake could cause serious damage to the levee projects built in soft soil foundation.Considering the variability of the soil parameters,the risk analysis theory of levee projects were introduced and the seismic risk assessment methods suitable for levee projects were developed.The calculation methods of sandy soil seismic liquefaction risk and seismic landslide risk for levees were established.Based on the earthquake risk and seismic vulnerability probability of levees,the estimate methods of economic losses and risk assessment standards were formulated.Finally,this method were applied in the levee with soft soil foundation built alone Minjiang River downstream.
引文
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[3]吴兴征,丁留谦,张金接.防洪堤防的可靠性设计方法探讨[J].水利学报,2003(4):94-100.
[4]刑万波.堤防工程风险分析理论与实践研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[5]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[6]陈颙,刘杰,陈棋福,等.地震危险性分析和震害预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[7]尹之潜.城市地震灾害性分析的基本框架和方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(1):70-75.
[8]马玉宏,赵桂峰.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[9]GB17741-2005工程场地地震安全性评价[S].
[10]国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
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