尾矿坝地震液化评价可靠度模型及应用
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摘要
为适应计算参数本身具有的随机性和未确知性,将可靠度理论引入尾矿坝地震液化评价中。以测试数据的统计分析结果为基础,应用一次二阶矩法建立尾矿坝地震液化分析可靠度模型,探讨了可靠度指标与抗液化安全系数之间的关系,并将该模型应用到某尾矿坝地震液化分析中。结果表明,新建可靠度模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判断液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率;可靠度理论在液化分析中能更好地考虑计算参数的变异性,进一步完善了尾矿坝地震液化分析理论,为进行基于风险分析的尾矿坝抗震设计和地震安全评价提供更全面的依据。
In order to consider the randomness and uncertainty of calculation parameters,reliability theory was introduced into seismic liquefaction evaluation for tailings dam.Based on the statistic analysis of test datum,a model for evaluating tailings dam liquefaction probability was developed using the method of First-Order Second-Moment.The relationship between the reliability index with anti-liquefaction factor of safety was explored,and the model was applied to a tailings dam seismic liquefaction evaluation also.The results showed that the physical meaning of the model parameters and statistical indices of the model is specific.Comparing traditionally determinate analysis method,the new model not only can differentiate whether liquefaction takes place or not,but also can present liquefaction probability.Reliability theory in the liquefaction evaluation can better consider the parameter uncertainty,and improve the tailings dam seismic liquefaction evaluation theory,which provides more comprehensive basis for antiseismic design and seismic safety evaluation of tailings dam based on risk analysis.
In order to consider the randomness and uncertainty of calculation parameters,reliability theory was introduced into seismic liquefaction evaluation for tailings dam.Based on the statistic analysis of test datum,a model for evaluating tailings dam liquefaction probability was developed using the method of First-Order Second-Moment.The relationship between the reliability index with anti-liquefaction factor of safety was explored,and the model was applied to a tailings dam seismic liquefaction evaluation also.The results showed that the physical meaning of the model parameters and statistical indices of the model is specific.Comparing traditionally determinate analysis method,the new model not only can differentiate whether liquefaction takes place or not,but also can present liquefaction probability.Reliability theory in the liquefaction evaluation can better consider the parameter uncertainty,and improve the tailings dam seismic liquefaction evaluation theory,which provides more comprehensive basis for antiseismic design and seismic safety evaluation of tailings dam based on risk analysis.
引文
[1]Ishihara K.Post-earthquake failure of a tailings dam dueto liquefaction of the pond deposit[C].International con-ference on case histories in geotechnical engineering,Stolouis,Geotechnical Engineering,1984,3:1129-1143
[2]孔宪京,潘建平,邹德高.尾矿坝液化流动变形分析[J].大连理工大学学报,2008,48(4):541-545KONG Xian-jing,PAN Jian-ping,ZOU De-gao.Analysisof liquefaction-induced flow deformation of tailings dam[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2008,48(4):541-545
[3]柳厚祥,廖雪,李宁,等.高尾矿坝的有效应力地震反应分析[J].振动与冲击,2008,27(1):65-70LIU Hou-xiang,LIAO Xue,LI Ning,et al.Seismic re-sponse analysis of high tailing dams using effective stressfinite element method[J].Journal of Vibration andShock,2008,27(1):65-70
[4]潘建平,孔宪京,邹德高.尾矿坝地震液化稳定的简化分析[J].水利学报,2006,37(10):1224-1229PAN Jian-ping,KONG Xian-jing,ZOU De-gao.Simpli-fied analysis of liquefaction and stability of tailing damduring earthquake[J].Shuili Xuebao,2006,37(10):1224-1229
[5]高艳平,王余庆,辛鸿博.尾矿坝地震液化简化判别法[J].岩土工程学报,1995,17(5):72-79GAO Yan-ping,WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo.A sim-plified procedure for evaluating liquefaction potential oftailing dam[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engi-neering,1995,17(5):72-79
[6]张明,刘金勇,麦家煊.土石坝边坡稳定可靠度分析与设计[J].水力发电学报,2006,25(2):103-107ZHANG Ming,LIU Jin-yong,MAI Jia-xuan.Reliabilityanalysis and design of slope stability of earth-rock dam[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2006,25(2):103-107
[7]张超,杨春和,徐卫亚.尾矿坝稳定性的可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,2004,25(11):1706-1711ZHANG Chao,YANG Chun-he,XU Wei-ya.Reliabilityanalysis of tailings dam stability[J].Rock and Soil Me-chanics,2004,25(11):1706-1711
[8]董陇军,赵国彦,宫凤强,等.尾矿坝地震稳定性分析的区间模型及应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(1):164-169DONG Long-jun,ZHAO Guo-yan,GONG Feng-qiang,etal.Interval analysis model of tailings dam seismic stabili-ty and its application[J].Journal of Central South Uni-versity(Science and Technology),2011,42(1):164-169
[9]王飞跃,徐志胜,董陇军.尾矿坝稳定性分析的模糊随机可靠度模型及应用[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(11):1600-1605WANG Fei-yue,XU Zhi-sheng,DONG Long-jun.Stabil-ity model of tailing dams based on fuzzy random reliability[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008,30(11):1600-1605
[10]胡平安,韩森.基于JC法尾矿坝稳定性可靠度研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):56-60HU Ping-an,HAN Sen.Research on reliability of tail-ing dam stability based on JC method[J].Journal ofSafety Science and Technology,2010,6(4):56-60
[11]赵国藩,曹居易,张宽权.工程结构可靠度[M].北京:科学出版社,2011
[12]潘建平.FOSM在水平场地液化概率评价中的应用研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2011,38(4):117-120PAN Jian-ping.Application of FOSM to liquefactionprobability evaluation for a horizontal site[J].Hydroge-ology&Engineering Geology,2011,38(4):117-120
[13]GB50191─93.构筑物抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社,1995
[14]金晓媚,王余庆.尾矿材料静力、动力参数规律性的研究[R].北京:冶金部建筑研究总院,1993
[15]王余庆,辛鸿博.用动单剪仪研究大石河尾矿砂的动特性[J].工业建筑,1995,25(3):37-40WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo.Cyclic simple shear be-havior of dashihe tailings sands[J].Industrial Con-struction,1995,25(3):37-40
[16]张超,杨春和.细粒含量对尾矿材料液化特性的影响[J].岩土力学,2006,27(7):1133-1137ZHANG Chao,YANG Chun-he.Effect of fines contenton liquefaction properties of tailings material[J].Rockand Soil Mechanics,2006,27(7):1133-1137
[17]陈存礼,何军芳,胡再强,等.尾矿砂的动力变形及动强度特性研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(3):365-370CHEN Cun-li,HE Jun-fang,HU Zai-qiang,et al.Ex-perimental study on dynamic deformation and dynamicstrength of tailing sands[J].Shuili Xuebao,2007,38(3):365-370
[18]张超,杨春和,白世伟.尾矿料的动力特性试验研究[J].岩土力学,2006,27(1):35-40ZHANG Chao,YANG Chun-he,BAI Shi-wei.Experi-mental study on dynamic characteristics of tailings mate-rial[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(1):35-40
[19]阮元成,郭新.饱和尾矿料静、动强度特性的试验研究[J].水利学报,2004,35(1):67-73RUAN Yuan-cheng,GUO Xin.Experimental study onstatic and dynamic strength properties of saturated tail-ings[J].Shuili Xuebao,2004,35(1):67-73
[2]孔宪京,潘建平,邹德高.尾矿坝液化流动变形分析[J].大连理工大学学报,2008,48(4):541-545KONG Xian-jing,PAN Jian-ping,ZOU De-gao.Analysisof liquefaction-induced flow deformation of tailings dam[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2008,48(4):541-545
[3]柳厚祥,廖雪,李宁,等.高尾矿坝的有效应力地震反应分析[J].振动与冲击,2008,27(1):65-70LIU Hou-xiang,LIAO Xue,LI Ning,et al.Seismic re-sponse analysis of high tailing dams using effective stressfinite element method[J].Journal of Vibration andShock,2008,27(1):65-70
[4]潘建平,孔宪京,邹德高.尾矿坝地震液化稳定的简化分析[J].水利学报,2006,37(10):1224-1229PAN Jian-ping,KONG Xian-jing,ZOU De-gao.Simpli-fied analysis of liquefaction and stability of tailing damduring earthquake[J].Shuili Xuebao,2006,37(10):1224-1229
[5]高艳平,王余庆,辛鸿博.尾矿坝地震液化简化判别法[J].岩土工程学报,1995,17(5):72-79GAO Yan-ping,WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo.A sim-plified procedure for evaluating liquefaction potential oftailing dam[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engi-neering,1995,17(5):72-79
[6]张明,刘金勇,麦家煊.土石坝边坡稳定可靠度分析与设计[J].水力发电学报,2006,25(2):103-107ZHANG Ming,LIU Jin-yong,MAI Jia-xuan.Reliabilityanalysis and design of slope stability of earth-rock dam[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2006,25(2):103-107
[7]张超,杨春和,徐卫亚.尾矿坝稳定性的可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,2004,25(11):1706-1711ZHANG Chao,YANG Chun-he,XU Wei-ya.Reliabilityanalysis of tailings dam stability[J].Rock and Soil Me-chanics,2004,25(11):1706-1711
[8]董陇军,赵国彦,宫凤强,等.尾矿坝地震稳定性分析的区间模型及应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(1):164-169DONG Long-jun,ZHAO Guo-yan,GONG Feng-qiang,etal.Interval analysis model of tailings dam seismic stabili-ty and its application[J].Journal of Central South Uni-versity(Science and Technology),2011,42(1):164-169
[9]王飞跃,徐志胜,董陇军.尾矿坝稳定性分析的模糊随机可靠度模型及应用[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(11):1600-1605WANG Fei-yue,XU Zhi-sheng,DONG Long-jun.Stabil-ity model of tailing dams based on fuzzy random reliability[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008,30(11):1600-1605
[10]胡平安,韩森.基于JC法尾矿坝稳定性可靠度研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):56-60HU Ping-an,HAN Sen.Research on reliability of tail-ing dam stability based on JC method[J].Journal ofSafety Science and Technology,2010,6(4):56-60
[11]赵国藩,曹居易,张宽权.工程结构可靠度[M].北京:科学出版社,2011
[12]潘建平.FOSM在水平场地液化概率评价中的应用研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2011,38(4):117-120PAN Jian-ping.Application of FOSM to liquefactionprobability evaluation for a horizontal site[J].Hydroge-ology&Engineering Geology,2011,38(4):117-120
[13]GB50191─93.构筑物抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社,1995
[14]金晓媚,王余庆.尾矿材料静力、动力参数规律性的研究[R].北京:冶金部建筑研究总院,1993
[15]王余庆,辛鸿博.用动单剪仪研究大石河尾矿砂的动特性[J].工业建筑,1995,25(3):37-40WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo.Cyclic simple shear be-havior of dashihe tailings sands[J].Industrial Con-struction,1995,25(3):37-40
[16]张超,杨春和.细粒含量对尾矿材料液化特性的影响[J].岩土力学,2006,27(7):1133-1137ZHANG Chao,YANG Chun-he.Effect of fines contenton liquefaction properties of tailings material[J].Rockand Soil Mechanics,2006,27(7):1133-1137
[17]陈存礼,何军芳,胡再强,等.尾矿砂的动力变形及动强度特性研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(3):365-370CHEN Cun-li,HE Jun-fang,HU Zai-qiang,et al.Ex-perimental study on dynamic deformation and dynamicstrength of tailing sands[J].Shuili Xuebao,2007,38(3):365-370
[18]张超,杨春和,白世伟.尾矿料的动力特性试验研究[J].岩土力学,2006,27(1):35-40ZHANG Chao,YANG Chun-he,BAI Shi-wei.Experi-mental study on dynamic characteristics of tailings mate-rial[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(1):35-40
[19]阮元成,郭新.饱和尾矿料静、动强度特性的试验研究[J].水利学报,2004,35(1):67-73RUAN Yuan-cheng,GUO Xin.Experimental study onstatic and dynamic strength properties of saturated tail-ings[J].Shuili Xuebao,2004,35(1):67-73
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