灰色统计法在建筑物(群)地震易损性分析中的应用
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摘要
灾害风险分析是当前工程防灾减灾的主要措施,建筑物(群)地震易损性分析作为地震灾害风险分析的主要内容之一,是灾情损失评估、减灾规划以及地震过程中紧急救援的前提与基础。众所周之,众多地震风险影响因素的信息是不充分、不完全的,而传统数理统计分析方法又存在要求大样本量、计算量大等特点。因此,为了避免传统方法的局限性,本文采用灰色统计法对建筑物(群)地震易损性进行分析,并通过算例证明该方法的可行性与有效性,其分析结果对于全面了解建筑物(群)的抗震能力和水平,预测和评估城市地震灾害损失具有重要的现实意义。
Disaster risk analysis is the main measure of engineering prevention and reduction disaster currently,the building(cluster) 's vulnerability analysis is one of the main contentses of disaster risk analysis when its situated earthquake,which is premise and foundation of the disaster loss valuation,reduce a disaster programming and earthquake process in urgent.As everyone knows,numerous impact factor of the earthquake risk information are insufficiency and incompletely,but tradition Mathematical Statistics analysis method again existence request big sample quantity,having great calculation capacity etc.Therefore,in order to avoiding the tradition method's limit,this literary grace use gray statistics method to analysis the building(cluster) 's earthquake vulnerability,and through a instance certificate the method's possibility and usefulness,the analysis result have importance of reality meaning for overall understanding building(cluster) 's anti-earthquake ability and level,estimate and valuation the disaster loss.
Disaster risk analysis is the main measure of engineering prevention and reduction disaster currently,the building(cluster) 's vulnerability analysis is one of the main contentses of disaster risk analysis when its situated earthquake,which is premise and foundation of the disaster loss valuation,reduce a disaster programming and earthquake process in urgent.As everyone knows,numerous impact factor of the earthquake risk information are insufficiency and incompletely,but tradition Mathematical Statistics analysis method again existence request big sample quantity,having great calculation capacity etc.Therefore,in order to avoiding the tradition method's limit,this literary grace use gray statistics method to analysis the building(cluster) 's earthquake vulnerability,and through a instance certificate the method's possibility and usefulness,the analysis result have importance of reality meaning for overall understanding building(cluster) 's anti-earthquake ability and level,estimate and valuation the disaster loss.
引文
[1]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价——理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[2]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2001.
[3]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[4]CornellC A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bul.l Seism.Son.Amer.,1968(58):1583-1606.
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[6]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武昌:华中工学院出版社,2003:45-51.
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[8]吴和琴,等.灰色数学引论[M].石家庄:河北人民出版社,1990.
[9]王清印,等.灰色系统论数学方法及应用[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1990.
[10]许金余,赵靖,等.防空阵地防护等级模糊综合评判[J].空军工程大学学报:自然科学版,2001,10(5):86-89.
[2]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2001.
[3]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[4]CornellC A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bul.l Seism.Son.Amer.,1968(58):1583-1606.
[5]章在墉.地震危险性分析及其应用[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1996.
[6]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武昌:华中工学院出版社,2003:45-51.
[7]万波,等.沈阳市浑南新区场地地震易损性分析[J].东北地震研究,2002(3):45-51.
[8]吴和琴,等.灰色数学引论[M].石家庄:河北人民出版社,1990.
[9]王清印,等.灰色系统论数学方法及应用[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1990.
[10]许金余,赵靖,等.防空阵地防护等级模糊综合评判[J].空军工程大学学报:自然科学版,2001,10(5):86-89.
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