汶川地震对芦山地震及周边断层发震概率的影响
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摘要
大震后区域静态库仑应力变化常常被用于解释区域地震活动性速率的变化、主震断层外余震的发生以及即将失稳断层的地震发生概率的变化.2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震的发生重新引起了对2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0大地震的热议.利用含(滑移)速率和状态的摩擦定律,结合汶川大地震前后的地震活动性水平,定量化计算了汶川地震后雅安地区发震概率的变化,并着重解释了芦山地震发震的可能根源.此外,还对库仑应力明显增加的鲜水河断层和熊坡断层进行了发震概率的定量化计算,计算结果与中国地震台网中心的地震目录基本符合.鲜水河断层从汶川地震后至今近5年来未发生M>6.0地震,而M>6.0的发震概率已约为60%;熊坡断层自汶川地震以来尚未发生M>4.0地震,芦山地震后M>4.0的发震概率已接近90%.所以,我们认为鲜水河断层附近将成为M>6.0地震的重点防范地区,熊坡地区将来仍旧存在发生中强地震的危险性.
Static stress changes have been proposed to explain variations of seismicity rates,off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes.The occurrence of Lushan MS7.0 earthquake re-arouses the hot discussion about the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.Based on the rateand-state dependent frictional law,combined with the seismicity analysis before and after Wenchuan earthquake,we have quantitatively calculated the probability of earthquake occurrences in Ya'an area,and explained the probable causes of Lushan MS7.0 earthquake.In addition,we have also computed the earthquake probabilities of Xianshuihe and Xiongpo faults,where the Coulomb stress also increased after Wenchuan earthquake.The results are in accordance with the earthquake catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center.No earthquake of M>6.0 happened on the Xianshuihe fault since the Wenchuan earthquake five years ago,but the probability of M>6.0 earthquake is about 60% at present.There is no earthquake of M>4.0 occurred on Xiongpo fault in the past five years,but the probabilities of earthquake occurrence of M>4.0 is nearly 90% after the Lushan earthquake.Therefore,we propose that Xianshuihe area will become the key area to monitoring M>6.0 earthquakes,and destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in Xiongpo area.
Static stress changes have been proposed to explain variations of seismicity rates,off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes.The occurrence of Lushan MS7.0 earthquake re-arouses the hot discussion about the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.Based on the rateand-state dependent frictional law,combined with the seismicity analysis before and after Wenchuan earthquake,we have quantitatively calculated the probability of earthquake occurrences in Ya'an area,and explained the probable causes of Lushan MS7.0 earthquake.In addition,we have also computed the earthquake probabilities of Xianshuihe and Xiongpo faults,where the Coulomb stress also increased after Wenchuan earthquake.The results are in accordance with the earthquake catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center.No earthquake of M>6.0 happened on the Xianshuihe fault since the Wenchuan earthquake five years ago,but the probability of M>6.0 earthquake is about 60% at present.There is no earthquake of M>4.0 occurred on Xiongpo fault in the past five years,but the probabilities of earthquake occurrence of M>4.0 is nearly 90% after the Lushan earthquake.Therefore,we propose that Xianshuihe area will become the key area to monitoring M>6.0 earthquakes,and destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in Xiongpo area.
引文
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陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇,刘超.2013.浅谈芦山地震[J].地震学报,35(3):285--295.
刘杰,易桂喜,张志伟,官致君,阮祥,龙锋,杜方.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山M7.0级地震介绍[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1404--1407.
单斌,熊熊,郑勇,刁法启.2009.2008年5月12日MW7.9汶川地震导致的周边断层应力变化[J].中国科学:D辑,39(5):537--545.
申文豪,刘博研,史保平.2013.MW7.9汶川地震余震序列触发机制研究[J].地震学报,35(4):461--476.
万永革,沈正康,盛书中,徐晓枫.2009.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响[J].地震学报,31(2):128--139.
王卫民,郝金来,姚振兴.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山地震震源破裂过程反演初步结果[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1412--1417.
王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,姚振兴.2008.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1403--1410.
解朝娣,朱元清,Lei Xinglin,于海英,虎雄林.2010.MS8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响[J].中国科学:D辑,40(6):688--698.
中国地震台网中心.2013a.中国地震台网(CSN)地震目录[EB/OL].[2013-05-05].http:∥www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/cgi-bin/csndmc/csn_catalog_p003.pl?mode=catalog&ot=20080512_0627595.
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Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time dependent rupture in the Earth[J].J Geophys Res,86(B7):6039--6051.
Dieterich J H.1972.Time dependence friction as a possible mechanism for aftershocks[J].J Geophys Res,77(20):3771--3781.
Dieterich J H.1979.Modeling of rock friction:1.Experimental results and constitutive equations[J].J Geophys Res,84(B5):2161--2168.
Dieterich J H.1981.Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge[C]∥Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks:The Handin Volume,Geophysical Monograrph Series.Washington D C:AGU:103--120.
Dieterich J H.1994.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering[J].J Geophys Res,99(B2):2601--2618.
Dieterich J H,Kilgore B D.1996.Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction[J].P Natl Acad Sci USA,93(9):3787--3794.
Gomberg J,Beeler N M,Blampied L M,Bodin P.1998.Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24347--24358.
Gomberg J,Blampied L M,Beeler N M.1997.Transient triggering of near and distant earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,87(2):294--309.
Gross S,Bürgmann R.1998.Rate and state of background stress estimated from the aftershocks of the 1989Loma Prieta,California,earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,103(B3):4915--4927.
Gross S,Kisslinger C.1997.Estimating tectonic stress rate and state with Landers aftershocks[J].J Geophys Res,102(B4):7603--7612.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24347--24358.
Harris R A,Day S M.1993.Dynamics of fault interaction:Parallel strike-slip fault[J].J Geophys Res,98(B3):4461--4472.
Harris R A,Simpson R.1998.Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows:A comparison of Coulomb and rateand-state failure[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24439--24451.
Kanamori H,Brodsky E E.2004.The physics of earthquakes[J].Rep Prog Phys,67(8):1429--1496.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,84(3):935--953.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin[J].Nature,454:509--510.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake[J].Science,255(5052):1687--1690.
Rice J R,Gu J C.1983.Earthquake aftereffects and triggered seismic phenomena[J].Pure Appl Geophys,121(2):187--219.
Ruina A L.1983.Slip instability and state variable friction laws[J].J Geophys Res,88(B12):10359--10370.
Rybicki K.1973.Analysis of aftershocks on the bases of dislocation theory[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,7(4):409--422.
Simpson R W,Reasenberg P A.1994.Earthquake-induced static stress changes on central California faults[J].US Geol Surv Prof Pap,1550-F:55--89.
Spudich P,Steck L K,Hellweg M,Fletcher J B,Baker L M.1995.Transient stresses at Parkfield,California,produced by the M7.4Landers earthquake of June 28,1992:Observations from UPSAR dense seismograph array[J].J Geophys Res,100(B1):675--690.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1992.Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault system caused by the1992magnitude=7.4Landers earthquake[J].Science,258(5086):1328--1332.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the 1994 M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors[J].Science,265(5177):1432--1435.
Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,Stein R S.2008.12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems[J].Geophys Res Lett,35(17):L17305.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,Dieterich J H,Yoshida A.1998.Stress transferred by the 1995 MW=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocks and future earthquakes probabilities[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24543--24565.
陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇,刘超.2013.浅谈芦山地震[J].地震学报,35(3):285--295.
刘杰,易桂喜,张志伟,官致君,阮祥,龙锋,杜方.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山M7.0级地震介绍[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1404--1407.
单斌,熊熊,郑勇,刁法启.2009.2008年5月12日MW7.9汶川地震导致的周边断层应力变化[J].中国科学:D辑,39(5):537--545.
申文豪,刘博研,史保平.2013.MW7.9汶川地震余震序列触发机制研究[J].地震学报,35(4):461--476.
万永革,沈正康,盛书中,徐晓枫.2009.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响[J].地震学报,31(2):128--139.
王卫民,郝金来,姚振兴.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山地震震源破裂过程反演初步结果[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1412--1417.
王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,姚振兴.2008.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1403--1410.
解朝娣,朱元清,Lei Xinglin,于海英,虎雄林.2010.MS8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响[J].中国科学:D辑,40(6):688--698.
中国地震台网中心.2013a.中国地震台网(CSN)地震目录[EB/OL].[2013-05-05].http:∥www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/cgi-bin/csndmc/csn_catalog_p003.pl?mode=catalog&ot=20080512_0627595.
中国地震台网中心.2013b.中国地震台网(CSN)地震目录[EB/OL].[2013-05-05].http:∥www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/data/csn_catalog_p002.jsp.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time dependent rupture in the Earth[J].J Geophys Res,86(B7):6039--6051.
Dieterich J H.1972.Time dependence friction as a possible mechanism for aftershocks[J].J Geophys Res,77(20):3771--3781.
Dieterich J H.1979.Modeling of rock friction:1.Experimental results and constitutive equations[J].J Geophys Res,84(B5):2161--2168.
Dieterich J H.1981.Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge[C]∥Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks:The Handin Volume,Geophysical Monograrph Series.Washington D C:AGU:103--120.
Dieterich J H.1994.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering[J].J Geophys Res,99(B2):2601--2618.
Dieterich J H,Kilgore B D.1996.Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction[J].P Natl Acad Sci USA,93(9):3787--3794.
Gomberg J,Beeler N M,Blampied L M,Bodin P.1998.Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24347--24358.
Gomberg J,Blampied L M,Beeler N M.1997.Transient triggering of near and distant earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,87(2):294--309.
Gross S,Bürgmann R.1998.Rate and state of background stress estimated from the aftershocks of the 1989Loma Prieta,California,earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,103(B3):4915--4927.
Gross S,Kisslinger C.1997.Estimating tectonic stress rate and state with Landers aftershocks[J].J Geophys Res,102(B4):7603--7612.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24347--24358.
Harris R A,Day S M.1993.Dynamics of fault interaction:Parallel strike-slip fault[J].J Geophys Res,98(B3):4461--4472.
Harris R A,Simpson R.1998.Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows:A comparison of Coulomb and rateand-state failure[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24439--24451.
Kanamori H,Brodsky E E.2004.The physics of earthquakes[J].Rep Prog Phys,67(8):1429--1496.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,84(3):935--953.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin[J].Nature,454:509--510.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake[J].Science,255(5052):1687--1690.
Rice J R,Gu J C.1983.Earthquake aftereffects and triggered seismic phenomena[J].Pure Appl Geophys,121(2):187--219.
Ruina A L.1983.Slip instability and state variable friction laws[J].J Geophys Res,88(B12):10359--10370.
Rybicki K.1973.Analysis of aftershocks on the bases of dislocation theory[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,7(4):409--422.
Simpson R W,Reasenberg P A.1994.Earthquake-induced static stress changes on central California faults[J].US Geol Surv Prof Pap,1550-F:55--89.
Spudich P,Steck L K,Hellweg M,Fletcher J B,Baker L M.1995.Transient stresses at Parkfield,California,produced by the M7.4Landers earthquake of June 28,1992:Observations from UPSAR dense seismograph array[J].J Geophys Res,100(B1):675--690.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1992.Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault system caused by the1992magnitude=7.4Landers earthquake[J].Science,258(5086):1328--1332.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the 1994 M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors[J].Science,265(5177):1432--1435.
Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,Stein R S.2008.12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems[J].Geophys Res Lett,35(17):L17305.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,Dieterich J H,Yoshida A.1998.Stress transferred by the 1995 MW=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocks and future earthquakes probabilities[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24543--24565.
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