基于性能的重力坝随机地震反应概率特征
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摘要
基于概率分析方法,对水工重力坝动力反应参数进行了随机描述,提出了重力坝随机地震反应的概率特征分析方法,并得到了其概率分布特征和规律.首先统计分析了国内典型重力坝场区地震危险性资料,得出了场区水平地震加速度与年超越概率的近似关系式,为概率地震反应计算提供了基础;然后,以一定数量的强震波为随机动力输入,以工程中较为关注的动力特征响应量为工程反应参数,按照非线性动力响应分析、不同烈度下动力反应参数最值统计规律和概率分布特征假设检验以及工程反应参数的年超越概率这3个层次进行重力坝的概率地震反应及其概率特征分析.结果表明:在设计关心的地震强度范围内,以水平地震加速度表征的地震危险性曲线近似服从幂指数关系;经检验,选定的重力坝工程反应参数服从对数正态的概率分布特征;计算得到的年超越概率曲线可以合理评估重力坝在地震中发生各种破坏的可能性.
Based on the probabilistic seismic analysis method,the stochastic description of seismic response parameters was presented,the probabilistic analysis method of gravity dam was put forward,and the probability distribution laws were obtained.Firstly,the statistical data for seismic hazard was analyzed,based on which the approximate relationship between horizontal earthquake coefficient and exceeding probabilities was obtained,which served as a basis for probability seismic response calculation.Then,three levels of procedure were presented for seismic response and its probability characteristic analysis,including the following respects:nonlinear dynamic response was computed from a series of deterministic response analysis with three loading intensity levels;probability distribution of engineering demand parameter was assumed and regression analyses were conducted;the annual probability caves were estimated to be the exceedance of various engineering demand parameters.The results show that seismic risk curve approximately obeys the power exponent relationship in our concern area,and that the log-normal probability distribution characteristics for the selected parameters of gravity dam are acceptable.The possibility of each failure of the gravity dam can be reasonably evaluated from the exceeding probability curves in the earthquake.
Based on the probabilistic seismic analysis method,the stochastic description of seismic response parameters was presented,the probabilistic analysis method of gravity dam was put forward,and the probability distribution laws were obtained.Firstly,the statistical data for seismic hazard was analyzed,based on which the approximate relationship between horizontal earthquake coefficient and exceeding probabilities was obtained,which served as a basis for probability seismic response calculation.Then,three levels of procedure were presented for seismic response and its probability characteristic analysis,including the following respects:nonlinear dynamic response was computed from a series of deterministic response analysis with three loading intensity levels;probability distribution of engineering demand parameter was assumed and regression analyses were conducted;the annual probability caves were estimated to be the exceedance of various engineering demand parameters.The results show that seismic risk curve approximately obeys the power exponent relationship in our concern area,and that the log-normal probability distribution characteristics for the selected parameters of gravity dam are acceptable.The possibility of each failure of the gravity dam can be reasonably evaluated from the exceeding probability curves in the earthquake.
引文
[1]Bazzurro P.Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis[D].California:Stanford University,1998.
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[4]涂劲,陈厚群,张伯艳.小湾拱坝在不同概率水平地震作用下的抗震安全性研究[J].水利学报,2006,37(3):278-285.Tu Jin,Chen Houqun,Zhang Boyan.Seismic safety ofhigh arch dam in Xiaowan Project under the action ofearthquakes with different exceeding probabilities[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2006,37(3):278-285(in Chinese).
[5]沈怀至,金峰,张楚汉.基于功能的混凝土重力坝抗震风险模型研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(12):3323-3328.Shen Huaizhi,Jin Feng,Zhang Chuhan.Performance-based seismic risk analysis model of concrete gravitydams[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(12):3323-3328(in Chinese).
[6]寇立夯,金峰,王进廷.基于概率的混凝土重力坝地震反应分析[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(5):23-28.Kou Lihang,Jin Feng,Wang Jinting.Probability-basedseismic response analysis of concrete gravity dams[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(5):23-28(in Chinese).
[7]Cornell C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bul-leting of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[8]曾志和,樊剑,余倩倩基于性能的桥梁结构概率地震需求分析[J].工程力学,2009,29(3):156-162.Zeng Zhihe,Fan Jian,Yu Qianqian.Performance-based probabilistic seismic demand analysis of bridgestructures[J].Engineering Mechanics,2009,29(3):156-162(in Chinese).
[9]Tothong P,Cornell C A.Probabilistic Seismic DemandAnalysis Using Advanced Ground Motion IntensityMeasure,Attenuation Relationships,and Near-FaultEffects[R].Berkeley,USA:Pacific Earthquake Engi-neering Research Center(PEER),University of Califor-nia,2006-11.
[10]李振富,张社荣,郭怀志.水平地震系数的概率特性估计及应用[J].天津大学学报,1993,26(l):105-109.Li Zhenfu,Zhang Sherong,Guo Huaizhi.The prob-abilistic evaluation of the horizontal earthquake coeffi-cient and its application[J].Journal of TianjinUniversity,1993,26(l):105-109(in Chinese).
[11]Cornell C A,Jalayer F,Hamburger R,et al.Probabil-istic basis for 2000 SAC federal emergency managementagency steel moment frame guidelines[J].Journal ofStructural Engineering,2002,128(4):526-532.
[12]Shome N,Cornell C A,Bazzurro P.Earthquakes,records,and nonlinear responses[J].Earthquake Spec-tra,1998,14(3):467-500.
[13]Kelliher D,Sutton-Swaby K.Stochastic representationof blast load damage in a reinforced concrete building[J].Structure Safety,2012,34(1):407-417.
[2]Porter K A.An overview of PEER’s performance-basedearthquake engineering methodology[C]//9th Interna-tional Conference on Application of Statistics and Prob-ability in Civil Engineering(ICASP9).San Francisco,California,USA,2003:973-980.
[3]陈厚群,侯顺载,梁爱虎.水电工程抗震设防概率水准和地震作用概率模型[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(2):91-98.Chen Houqun,Hou Shunzai,Liang Aihu.Probabilisticlevel fortification against earthquake and probabilisticmodels of seismic actions for hydraulic projects[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1993,2(2):91-98(inChinese).
[4]涂劲,陈厚群,张伯艳.小湾拱坝在不同概率水平地震作用下的抗震安全性研究[J].水利学报,2006,37(3):278-285.Tu Jin,Chen Houqun,Zhang Boyan.Seismic safety ofhigh arch dam in Xiaowan Project under the action ofearthquakes with different exceeding probabilities[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2006,37(3):278-285(in Chinese).
[5]沈怀至,金峰,张楚汉.基于功能的混凝土重力坝抗震风险模型研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(12):3323-3328.Shen Huaizhi,Jin Feng,Zhang Chuhan.Performance-based seismic risk analysis model of concrete gravitydams[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(12):3323-3328(in Chinese).
[6]寇立夯,金峰,王进廷.基于概率的混凝土重力坝地震反应分析[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(5):23-28.Kou Lihang,Jin Feng,Wang Jinting.Probability-basedseismic response analysis of concrete gravity dams[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(5):23-28(in Chinese).
[7]Cornell C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bul-leting of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[8]曾志和,樊剑,余倩倩基于性能的桥梁结构概率地震需求分析[J].工程力学,2009,29(3):156-162.Zeng Zhihe,Fan Jian,Yu Qianqian.Performance-based probabilistic seismic demand analysis of bridgestructures[J].Engineering Mechanics,2009,29(3):156-162(in Chinese).
[9]Tothong P,Cornell C A.Probabilistic Seismic DemandAnalysis Using Advanced Ground Motion IntensityMeasure,Attenuation Relationships,and Near-FaultEffects[R].Berkeley,USA:Pacific Earthquake Engi-neering Research Center(PEER),University of Califor-nia,2006-11.
[10]李振富,张社荣,郭怀志.水平地震系数的概率特性估计及应用[J].天津大学学报,1993,26(l):105-109.Li Zhenfu,Zhang Sherong,Guo Huaizhi.The prob-abilistic evaluation of the horizontal earthquake coeffi-cient and its application[J].Journal of TianjinUniversity,1993,26(l):105-109(in Chinese).
[11]Cornell C A,Jalayer F,Hamburger R,et al.Probabil-istic basis for 2000 SAC federal emergency managementagency steel moment frame guidelines[J].Journal ofStructural Engineering,2002,128(4):526-532.
[12]Shome N,Cornell C A,Bazzurro P.Earthquakes,records,and nonlinear responses[J].Earthquake Spec-tra,1998,14(3):467-500.
[13]Kelliher D,Sutton-Swaby K.Stochastic representationof blast load damage in a reinforced concrete building[J].Structure Safety,2012,34(1):407-417.
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