“5·12”汶川地震诱发滑坡的滑动距离预测
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摘要
滑坡体积和地形地貌是影响滑坡滑动距离的两个重要因素。在对"5·12"汶川地震诱发的滑坡进行详细调查的基础上,对46个典型地震滑坡的滑动距离与滑坡体积以及原始斜坡坡角的相关关系进行了统计分析。结果表明,汶川地震滑坡的水平滑动距离、垂直滑动距离均与滑坡体积的对数值具有良好的指数函数增长关系,相关系数R2分别为0.8244和0.7859;等效摩擦系数与原斜坡坡角正切值之间具有良好的线性增长趋势,相关系数R2为0.7973。基于此,通过二元线性回归,获得了滑坡水平滑动距离与滑坡体积、滑坡前后缘高差以及原始斜坡坡角的相关关系。
Volume and topography are two important factors affecting runout distance of landslides.On the basis of detailed field investigation of the landslides triggered by"5·12 "Wenchuan earthquake,the relationships between runout distance and landslide volume and initial slope angle for 46 typical earthquake-induced landslides were analyzed.The results showed that there are good exponential relationships between the logarithmic values of displaced volume and horizontal and vertical distances for the landslides,and the R2 values are 0.8244 and 0.7859 respectively.Moreover,there is an good linear relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient and tangent values of initial slope angle for the landslides,and the R2 values is 0.7973.In addition,a relation of horizontal(Lr) and vertical distance(H),landslide volume(V) and initial slope angle(θ) for the landslides was obtained by binary linear regression.
Volume and topography are two important factors affecting runout distance of landslides.On the basis of detailed field investigation of the landslides triggered by"5·12 "Wenchuan earthquake,the relationships between runout distance and landslide volume and initial slope angle for 46 typical earthquake-induced landslides were analyzed.The results showed that there are good exponential relationships between the logarithmic values of displaced volume and horizontal and vertical distances for the landslides,and the R2 values are 0.8244 and 0.7859 respectively.Moreover,there is an good linear relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient and tangent values of initial slope angle for the landslides,and the R2 values is 0.7973.In addition,a relation of horizontal(Lr) and vertical distance(H),landslide volume(V) and initial slope angle(θ) for the landslides was obtained by binary linear regression.
引文
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[12]Okura Y,Kitahara H,Kawanami A,et al.Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure[J].Engineering Geology,2003,67:243-254.
[13]Hattanji T,Moriwaki H.Morphometric analysis of relic landslides using detailed landslide distribution maps:Implications for forecasting travel distance of future landslides[J].Geomorphology,2009,103:447-454.
[14]Devoli G,De Blasio F V,Elverh A,et al.Statistical analysis of landslide events in central america and their run-out distance[J].Geotech Geol Engineering,2009,27:23-42.
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[16]Okura Y,Kitahara H,Kawanami A,et al.Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure[J].Engineering Geology,2003,67:243-254.
[17]Kokusho T,Ishizawa T,Nishida K.Travel distance of failed slopes during 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and its evaluation in terms of energy[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2009,29:1159-1169.
[18]Budetta P,De Riso R.The mobility of some debris flows in pyroclastic deposits of the northwestern Campanian region(southern Italy)[J].Bull Eng Geol Environ,2004,63:293-302.
[2]Li Baoxiong,Wang Dekai.A new theory of space forecast for loess landslides[J].Journal of Gansu Science,1998,10(3):57-58.[李保雄,王得揩.黄土滑坡空间预报的一种新理论[J].甘肃科学学报,1998,10(3):57-58.]
[3]Wang Nianqin,Zhang Zhuoyuan,Wang Jiading.A forecasting method of sliding distance on typical loess landslides[J].Journal of Northwest University:Natural Science Edition,2003,33(1):111-114.[王念秦,张倬元,王家鼎.一种典型黄土滑坡的滑距预测方法[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2003,33(1):111-114.]
[4]Wang Jiading,Zhang Zhuoyuan.A study on the mechanism of high-speed loess landslide induced by earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):670-674.[王家鼎,张倬元.地震诱发高速黄土滑坡的机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):670-674.]
[5]Lu Yuxia,Shi Yucheng,Chen Yongming,et al.Slippage eatimation of the loess landslide triggered by earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2006,28(3):248-251.[卢育霞,石玉成,陈永明,等.地震诱发黄土滑坡的滑距估测[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(3):248-251.]
[6]Hungr O.A model for the runout analysis of rapid flow slides,debris flows,and Avalanches[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1995,32:610-623.
[7]Jiang Xiaoyu,Qiao Jianping.Contact mechanics model for risk predication of typical landslides[J].Engineering Melhanics,2006,23(8):106-109.[江晓禹,乔建平.典型滑坡危险性的接触力学预测模型[J].工程力学,2006,23(8):106-109.]
[8]Hungr O,McDougall S.Two numerical models for landslide dynamic analysis[J].Computers&Geosciences,2009,35(5):978-992.
[9]Okura Y,Kitahara H,Sammori T,et al.The effects of rockfall volume on runout distance[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:109-124.
[10]Dexuan Zhang,Gonghui Wang.Study of the1920Haiyuan earthquake-induced landslides in loess(China)[J].Engineering Geology,2007,94:76-88.
[11]Okura Y,Kitahara H,Sammori T,et al.The effects of rock-fall volume on runout distance[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:109-124.
[12]Okura Y,Kitahara H,Kawanami A,et al.Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure[J].Engineering Geology,2003,67:243-254.
[13]Hattanji T,Moriwaki H.Morphometric analysis of relic landslides using detailed landslide distribution maps:Implications for forecasting travel distance of future landslides[J].Geomorphology,2009,103:447-454.
[14]Devoli G,De Blasio F V,Elverh A,et al.Statistical analysis of landslide events in central america and their run-out distance[J].Geotech Geol Engineering,2009,27:23-42.
[15]Legros F.The mobility of long-runout landslides[J].Engineering Geology,2002,63:301-331.
[16]Okura Y,Kitahara H,Kawanami A,et al.Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure[J].Engineering Geology,2003,67:243-254.
[17]Kokusho T,Ishizawa T,Nishida K.Travel distance of failed slopes during 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and its evaluation in terms of energy[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2009,29:1159-1169.
[18]Budetta P,De Riso R.The mobility of some debris flows in pyroclastic deposits of the northwestern Campanian region(southern Italy)[J].Bull Eng Geol Environ,2004,63:293-302.
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