基于加权马尔可夫模型的应急血液需求预测
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摘要
血液需求预测是应急血液管理的重要环节。为既有效满足伤员的输血需求,同时避免因过量采血而引发的血液浪费,针对地震血液需求突发性和波动性的特点,采用加权马尔可夫的预测方法对震后救援血液需求进行预测。利用需求序列的均方差建立分级标准,以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,结合转移概率矩阵计算出预测时段的状态概率,确定预测时段的需求区间和需求值。汶川特大地震的实际案例表明,加权马尔可夫模型对震后血液需求预测具有较高的准确性和适用性。
Emergency blood demand forecasting plays an important role on quick response to the urgent blood needs right after natural disasters.However,since the time series of blood demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity.It has poor prediction performance of applying the traditional statistical and econometric models.This paper proposes weighted Markov chain into the blood demand forecasting during the rescue after earthquake.The numerical results of Wenchuan earthquake happened in China prove both methods proposed are effective.
Emergency blood demand forecasting plays an important role on quick response to the urgent blood needs right after natural disasters.However,since the time series of blood demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity.It has poor prediction performance of applying the traditional statistical and econometric models.This paper proposes weighted Markov chain into the blood demand forecasting during the rescue after earthquake.The numerical results of Wenchuan earthquake happened in China prove both methods proposed are effective.
引文
[1]邹峥嵘,朱永明,钱开诚,等.灾害等突发事件血液应急探讨[J].中国输血杂志,2004,17(4):285-287.
[2]Sheu Jiuh-Biing.An emergency logistics distribution approach for quick response to urgent relief demand in disasters[J].Transportation Research Part E,2007,43:687–709.
[3]Liu Wenmao,Hu Guanyu,Li Jianfeng.Emergency resources demand prediction using case-based reasoning[J].Safety Science,2012,50:530-534.
[4]Hrezo R J,Clark J.The walking blood bank:an alternative blood supply in military mass casualties[J].Disaster Management&Response,2003,1(1):19-22.
[5]Tabatabaie M,Ardalan A,Abolghasemi H,et al.Estimating blood transfusion requirements in preparation for a major earthquake:the Tehran,Iran study[J].Prehospital and disaster medicine:the official journal of the National Association of EMS Physicians and the World Association for Emergency and Disaster Medicine in association with the Acute Care Foundation,2010,25(3):246-252.
[6]Akinc U,Meredith J.Choosing the appropriate capacity for a make-to-forecast production environment using a Markov analysis approach[J].IIE Transactions,2006,38(10):847-858.
[7]Gutierrez R S,Solis A O,and Mukhopadhyay S.Lumpy demand forecasting using neural networks[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2008,111(2):409-420.
[8]Pierre Pinson,Henrik Madsen.Adaptive Modelling and Forecasting of Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations with Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models[J].Journal of Forecasting,2012,31:281-313
[9]Yan Jihong,Guo Chaozhong,Wang,Xing.A dynamic multi-scale Markov model based methodology for remaining life prediction[J].Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing,2010,25:1364–1376.
[10]张雁灵.汶川特大地震医学救援行动及战略思考[J].解放军医学杂志,2009,34(1):1-6.
[11]程勤侦,田伟,赵晓嘉.特大地震灾害期间医院血液需求的变化及其影响因素分析[J].中国输血杂志,2008,21(8):588-590.
[2]Sheu Jiuh-Biing.An emergency logistics distribution approach for quick response to urgent relief demand in disasters[J].Transportation Research Part E,2007,43:687–709.
[3]Liu Wenmao,Hu Guanyu,Li Jianfeng.Emergency resources demand prediction using case-based reasoning[J].Safety Science,2012,50:530-534.
[4]Hrezo R J,Clark J.The walking blood bank:an alternative blood supply in military mass casualties[J].Disaster Management&Response,2003,1(1):19-22.
[5]Tabatabaie M,Ardalan A,Abolghasemi H,et al.Estimating blood transfusion requirements in preparation for a major earthquake:the Tehran,Iran study[J].Prehospital and disaster medicine:the official journal of the National Association of EMS Physicians and the World Association for Emergency and Disaster Medicine in association with the Acute Care Foundation,2010,25(3):246-252.
[6]Akinc U,Meredith J.Choosing the appropriate capacity for a make-to-forecast production environment using a Markov analysis approach[J].IIE Transactions,2006,38(10):847-858.
[7]Gutierrez R S,Solis A O,and Mukhopadhyay S.Lumpy demand forecasting using neural networks[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2008,111(2):409-420.
[8]Pierre Pinson,Henrik Madsen.Adaptive Modelling and Forecasting of Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations with Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models[J].Journal of Forecasting,2012,31:281-313
[9]Yan Jihong,Guo Chaozhong,Wang,Xing.A dynamic multi-scale Markov model based methodology for remaining life prediction[J].Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing,2010,25:1364–1376.
[10]张雁灵.汶川特大地震医学救援行动及战略思考[J].解放军医学杂志,2009,34(1):1-6.
[11]程勤侦,田伟,赵晓嘉.特大地震灾害期间医院血液需求的变化及其影响因素分析[J].中国输血杂志,2008,21(8):588-590.
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