GIS支持下基于CF方法的2013年芦山地震滑坡因子敏感性分析
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摘要
本文依据研究区现有地形因子(高程、坡度、坡向、斜坡曲率)、地质因子(岩性、距深大活动断裂距离)和地震因子(PGA、距震中距离)等相关影响因子资料并结合地震区基本情况,以GIS技术作为操作平台,采用确定性系数法,开展较为详细的芦山地震区地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析工作。首先,以GIS技术作为操作平台将地震滑坡的8个影响因子据研究区特征进行分级,构建不同影响因子分级的栅格图层进行地震滑坡分布相关参数统计;其次,采用确定性系数法计算8个地震滑坡影响因子分级区间对应的CF值,分别提取出地震滑坡最为敏感分级区间以进行地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析,从而衡量不同影响因子分级区间对地震滑坡易发性敏感程度。地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析结果表明,除斜坡曲率因子与距震中距离因子对地震滑坡易发性不敏感外,其他6个影响因子对地震滑坡易发性均很敏感,分别是影响滑坡发生的主要地形、地质和地震因子。针对斜坡曲率因子和距震中距离因子对滑坡的易发性不是很敏感是否受内部其他影响因子限制所进行的分析与讨论结果表明,SW向很可能限制了斜坡曲率对地震滑坡易发性的敏感程度,地层岩性对距震中距离因子限制作用更为明显,除奥陶系、志留系外的地层岩性对距震中距离因子敏感性程度都有限制。文章所得成果具有一定的方法理论意义,对于防震减灾工作也具有一定参考意义。
This paper uses GIS technology as the operating platform and adopts the certainty factor method to carry out a more detailed susceptibility analysis of the 2013 Lushan earthquake-triggered landslides. The analysis combines the basic situation of the earthquake zone and is based on the existing relevant factor data including topographic factors( elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,curvature),geological factors( lithology,distance from thedeep active faults) and seismic factors( PGA,distance from the epicenter). Firstly,the eight seismic landslide impact factors are graded according to the characteristics of the study area with GIS technology as the platform. A different grading impact factor raster layer is built to complete the parameter statistics of seismic landslide distribution. The most sensitive grading interval is extracted for sensitivity analysis to measure the susceptibility sensitive degree of seismic landslide by different factors grading interval,which is from the value of certainty factor of eight seismic landslide impact factors. The sensitivity analysis of seismic landslide factor shows that the other six factors are very sensitive for landslide-prone and they are the main factors of terrain,geology and earthquake respectively except for curvature and the epicenter factor. The results that the curvature and the epicenter factor are not very sensitive for landslide-prone are further analyzed and discussed. The effect of the internal other factors is also analyzed. The SW aspect is likely to limit the sensitivity of curvature acting on seismic landslide-prone. The limiting is more obvious for lithology than the epicenter factor. Such limiting may not be applicable for the rock strata in Ordovician and Silurian. The results have a certain approach theoretical significance and a certain reference value for earthquake disaster reduction.
This paper uses GIS technology as the operating platform and adopts the certainty factor method to carry out a more detailed susceptibility analysis of the 2013 Lushan earthquake-triggered landslides. The analysis combines the basic situation of the earthquake zone and is based on the existing relevant factor data including topographic factors( elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,curvature),geological factors( lithology,distance from thedeep active faults) and seismic factors( PGA,distance from the epicenter). Firstly,the eight seismic landslide impact factors are graded according to the characteristics of the study area with GIS technology as the platform. A different grading impact factor raster layer is built to complete the parameter statistics of seismic landslide distribution. The most sensitive grading interval is extracted for sensitivity analysis to measure the susceptibility sensitive degree of seismic landslide by different factors grading interval,which is from the value of certainty factor of eight seismic landslide impact factors. The sensitivity analysis of seismic landslide factor shows that the other six factors are very sensitive for landslide-prone and they are the main factors of terrain,geology and earthquake respectively except for curvature and the epicenter factor. The results that the curvature and the epicenter factor are not very sensitive for landslide-prone are further analyzed and discussed. The effect of the internal other factors is also analyzed. The SW aspect is likely to limit the sensitivity of curvature acting on seismic landslide-prone. The limiting is more obvious for lithology than the epicenter factor. Such limiting may not be applicable for the rock strata in Ordovician and Silurian. The results have a certain approach theoretical significance and a certain reference value for earthquake disaster reduction.
引文
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[18]许冲.2013年芦山MS7.0级地震滑坡易发性快速评价方法[J].科技导报,2013,31(28/29):15~23.Xu Chong.Quick landslide susceptibly evaluation and its validation for the 2013 MS7.0 Lushan earthquake[J].Science&Technology Review,2013,31(28/29):15~23.
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