应用地震地球化学方法对汶川8.0级地震中期预报成功的依据分析
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摘要
本文对地震地球化学的基础原理作了一些简要的叙述,同时应用该方法对四川省汶川8.0级地震作了中期预报。预报的依据主要是从四川省鲜水河、安宁河及龙门山等几条地质构造带进行了地震水文地球化学观测研究,发现在龙门山地质构造带上及其邻近地区有高地热流值;并伴随着高氡值前兆变化、高氦值、高汞值及高锂值等深部逸出的化学元素指标,这些高值区恰好出现在以汶川为中心的地带,同时在这个地区经常有小地震发生,并具有垂直地形变的升降。因此,根据以上因素,我们曾预报在汶川地区存在着5级以上的强烈地震背景。在2008年5月12日汶川发生了8.0级强烈地震,验证了我们的中期预报是正确的、成功的,是有科学依据的。
The disserlation in side simple recoutes to seismo-geochemical a few basis theoretics. At the same time,application this method for Sichua Province in Wenchuan 8.0 Magnitude easthquake done middle-Term Peadiction. It's pninocipal acconding seismo-Hydrgeochemical methode for Xianshui River fault and Anning River fault and Longmen mountain fault etc. geological structure belt and near area in Sichuan province at seimolog obsevature Reseach. We are Find on longmen mountain geological structure belt and in Wenchuan near area have been high geothermal waters and accompany high radon(Rn) level anomalies change out up;at the same time,exist have high Helium(He) level、high mercury(Hg) level and high Lithium(Li) level et al chemical elements of from depths out up target. In addition,at there area usual happen Same smally seismic activity and have time-depth topography change. According said,we are application of seimo-Hgdrgeochemical methods and seismic-geological structure and geophysical foetor be mutually exclusive,we are prediction have exist more the five magnitude earthquake the back ground in Wenchuan area. At 12.5.2008 Wenchuan 8.0 magnitude strog earthquake given test and verify,we are middle-term perdiction Wenchuan strong earthquake,it is right、succeed and have been the scientific Accordance.
The disserlation in side simple recoutes to seismo-geochemical a few basis theoretics. At the same time,application this method for Sichua Province in Wenchuan 8.0 Magnitude easthquake done middle-Term Peadiction. It's pninocipal acconding seismo-Hydrgeochemical methode for Xianshui River fault and Anning River fault and Longmen mountain fault etc. geological structure belt and near area in Sichuan province at seimolog obsevature Reseach. We are Find on longmen mountain geological structure belt and in Wenchuan near area have been high geothermal waters and accompany high radon(Rn) level anomalies change out up;at the same time,exist have high Helium(He) level、high mercury(Hg) level and high Lithium(Li) level et al chemical elements of from depths out up target. In addition,at there area usual happen Same smally seismic activity and have time-depth topography change. According said,we are application of seimo-Hgdrgeochemical methods and seismic-geological structure and geophysical foetor be mutually exclusive,we are prediction have exist more the five magnitude earthquake the back ground in Wenchuan area. At 12.5.2008 Wenchuan 8.0 magnitude strog earthquake given test and verify,we are middle-term perdiction Wenchuan strong earthquake,it is right、succeed and have been the scientific Accordance.
引文
[1]傅承义.关于地震发生的几点认识.地震战线:1971.
[2]蒋凤亮.冲熔作用与地震关系.地震科学研究:1981(1).
[3]南京大学地质系.地球化学.北京:科学出版社,1979.
[4]蒋凤亮等.地震地球化学.北京:地震出版社,1989.
[5]国家地震局科技监测司.水文地球化学地震前兆观测与预报.北京:地震出版社,1992.
[6]高文学,蒋凤亮,高庆华,等.地球化学异常——地震预测整体观的探索.北京:地震出版社,2000.
[7]王钧,等.中国地热分布的基本特征.北京:地震出版社,1990.
[8]Nigel calde.The Restless Earth.1972.
[9]Bluce A.Bolt.Earthquakes and volcanoes.1980.
[10]P.H.Greenwoddl,L.R.M.Cocks.The Evolving Earth.1981.
[11]Frank press,Raymond siever.Earth.1982.
[2]蒋凤亮.冲熔作用与地震关系.地震科学研究:1981(1).
[3]南京大学地质系.地球化学.北京:科学出版社,1979.
[4]蒋凤亮等.地震地球化学.北京:地震出版社,1989.
[5]国家地震局科技监测司.水文地球化学地震前兆观测与预报.北京:地震出版社,1992.
[6]高文学,蒋凤亮,高庆华,等.地球化学异常——地震预测整体观的探索.北京:地震出版社,2000.
[7]王钧,等.中国地热分布的基本特征.北京:地震出版社,1990.
[8]Nigel calde.The Restless Earth.1972.
[9]Bluce A.Bolt.Earthquakes and volcanoes.1980.
[10]P.H.Greenwoddl,L.R.M.Cocks.The Evolving Earth.1981.
[11]Frank press,Raymond siever.Earth.1982.
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