地震活动性总体参量Rt及其在地震预测中应用的研究
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摘要
考虑到地震活动性综合分析在地震预测中的重要作用,提出一种地震活动性总体状态参量Rt。该参量由多项地震活动性预测因子构成,其中包括:地震频次、缺震、地震熵、b值和调制比,该参数描述了某时段内,多种地震活动性参量对正常状态的偏离。当Rt=1时,地震活动状态是稳定的,反之,当Rt<1时,则表明地震活动处于不同程度的不稳定态。文中对华北、东北和西北地区地震以及矿山地震的Rt值在强事件前后随时间的变化进行了研究,初步结果表明:在强震或较大矿震前Rt值明显偏离1。同时,对Rt值的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。
Considering the great role of comprehensive analysis of seismic activity in earthquake prediction,an integrated parameter R_t of seismicity has been proposed in this paper.R_t consists of several seismic factors,including earthquake frequency,average magnitude,seismic entropy,b value and modulation ratio,it describes the total deviation of seismicity state from the normal in a given time interval.When R_t=1,the state of seismic activity is stable,otherwise,the seismic state is unstable in varying degrees.The variation of R_t with time has been studied for earthquakes occurred in North China,Northeast China and Northwest China regions as well as for mining earthquakes.The preliminary results show that R_t deviates from 1.0 clearly before the large earthquake occurrence.The efficiency of earthquake prediction by use of R_t parameter has been also estimated.
Considering the great role of comprehensive analysis of seismic activity in earthquake prediction,an integrated parameter R_t of seismicity has been proposed in this paper.R_t consists of several seismic factors,including earthquake frequency,average magnitude,seismic entropy,b value and modulation ratio,it describes the total deviation of seismicity state from the normal in a given time interval.When R_t=1,the state of seismic activity is stable,otherwise,the seismic state is unstable in varying degrees.The variation of R_t with time has been studied for earthquakes occurred in North China,Northeast China and Northwest China regions as well as for mining earthquakes.The preliminary results show that R_t deviates from 1.0 clearly before the large earthquake occurrence.The efficiency of earthquake prediction by use of R_t parameter has been also estimated.
引文
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[2]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.65-66.
[3]林辉,张平,唐采,等.云南地区强震前兆短期综合异常特征研究[J].地震,2004,24(4):113-118.
[4]王林瑛,舒曦.利用地震熵值及多分形方法研究地震序列类型的早期判定[A].地震短临预报的理论与方法[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.136-142.
[5]王林瑛,吴忠良,陈佩燕.地震活动性参数的相关性[J].地震学报,2005,26(增刊):169-174.
[6]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰.地震预报概论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.60-61.
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