都江堰市汶川地震死亡人数的时空分布研究
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摘要
通过对汶川地震灾区都江堰市死亡人数的统计分析,归纳出都江堰市地震死亡人数的时空分布规律,发现死亡人数随时间、地震烈度、年龄不同的分布规律,为政府决策和震后救援方案的制订提供理论依据和参考。
Based on the statistics and analysis on death toll of Dujiangyan in the Wenchuan earthquake,space-time distribution rule is figured out.The death toll changes with time,seismic intensity and age,which can be taken as basis and reference for the government to make rescue plan after earthquakes.
Based on the statistics and analysis on death toll of Dujiangyan in the Wenchuan earthquake,space-time distribution rule is figured out.The death toll changes with time,seismic intensity and age,which can be taken as basis and reference for the government to make rescue plan after earthquakes.
引文
[1]邹其嘉,毛国敏,孙振凯,等.地震人员伤亡易损性研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):60-68.
[2]Kawasumi H.Measures of earthquake danger and theexpectancy of maximum intensity throughout Japan,asinferred from the seismic activity in historical times.Bull.Earthquake Res.Inst.1951,29:469-482.
[3]Lomnitz C.Casualties and behavior of populations duringearthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.1970,60:1309-1313.
[4]Ohta Y.,Goto N.,nd Ohashi H.An empirical constructionof equations for estimating number of victims byearthquakes.ZisinⅡ.1983,36:463-466.
[5]Christoskov L.,Samardjieva E.An approach for estimation of the possible number of casualties during strongearthquakes,Bulg.Geophys,J.1984,No.4:94-106.
[6]Shebalin,N.V.Regularities of the natural disasters(inRussian).Nauki o zemle,v.11,1985,Znanie,Moscow,48pp.
[7]Wyss M.Human losses expected in Himalayanearthquakes,Natural Hazards.2005,34:305-314.Marano KD,Wald DJ,Allen TI.,Global earthquakecasualties due to secondary effects:a quantitative analysisfor improving rapid loss analyses,Nat Hazards.2010,52:319-328.
[8]Samardjieva E,Oike K.,Modelling the number of casualtiesfrom earthquakes,Journal of Natural Disaster Science,1992,14(1):17-28.
[9]Oike,K..A discussion on the relation between magnitudeand number of deaths by earthquakes,Proc.of the Int.Seminar on Earthquake and Hazard Mitigation Technology.1991,Tsukuba,Japan:333-341.
[10]Oike,K.,Hori T..History of earthquakes and seismicdisasters in east Asia.Science,1998,68:409-415.
[11]TsaiYi-ben,Tsung-Ming Yu,Hsiao-Ling Chao,et al.Spatialdistribution and age dependence of human-fatality ratesfrom the Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake of 21 september1999.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.2001,91,5:1298-1309.
[12]Samardjieva E,Badal J.,Estimation of the expected numberof casualties caused by strong earthquakes,Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America.2002,Vol.92,No.6:2310-2322.
[13]程家喻,杨喆．唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,15(1):82-87.
[14]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:48.
[15]洪时中.对日本兵库县南部地震震灾统计时程曲线的初步分析[J].国际地震动态,1995,(5):10-14.
[16]王景来,杨子汉.地震灾害时间进程法[J].地震研究,1997,20(4):424-430.
[17]廖旭,高常波,韩绍欣.不同时刻地震直接人员伤亡人数的预测[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(4):92-96.
[18]赵振东,林均歧,郑向远,等.地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(3):90-96.
[19]赵振东,郑向远,钟江荣.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(04):149-156.
[20]高建国,贾艳.地震救援能力的一项指标——地震灾害发布时间的研究[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):31-35.
[21]刘倬,吴忠良.地震和地震海啸中报道死亡人数随时间变化的一个简单模型[J].中国地震,2006(4):72-75.
[22]杨杰英,李永强,刘丽芳,等.地震三要素对地震伤亡人数的影响分析[J].地震研究,2007,30(2):182-187.
[23]吴新燕,顾建华,吴昊昱.地震报道死亡人数随时间变化的修正指数模型[J].地震学报,2009,31(4):457-463.
[24]王艳茹,王宝光,戴君武,等.“5.12”汶川大地震人员伤亡的时空分布特点[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):52-56.
[25]行政区划网.http://www.xzqh org/quhua.
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[27]都江堰市统计局.2008年都江堰市国民经济和社会发展统计公报[R].四川,都江堰,2009.
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[29]吴昊昱.地震死亡人数的分布与震后快速估计的方法研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2009.
[2]Kawasumi H.Measures of earthquake danger and theexpectancy of maximum intensity throughout Japan,asinferred from the seismic activity in historical times.Bull.Earthquake Res.Inst.1951,29:469-482.
[3]Lomnitz C.Casualties and behavior of populations duringearthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.1970,60:1309-1313.
[4]Ohta Y.,Goto N.,nd Ohashi H.An empirical constructionof equations for estimating number of victims byearthquakes.ZisinⅡ.1983,36:463-466.
[5]Christoskov L.,Samardjieva E.An approach for estimation of the possible number of casualties during strongearthquakes,Bulg.Geophys,J.1984,No.4:94-106.
[6]Shebalin,N.V.Regularities of the natural disasters(inRussian).Nauki o zemle,v.11,1985,Znanie,Moscow,48pp.
[7]Wyss M.Human losses expected in Himalayanearthquakes,Natural Hazards.2005,34:305-314.Marano KD,Wald DJ,Allen TI.,Global earthquakecasualties due to secondary effects:a quantitative analysisfor improving rapid loss analyses,Nat Hazards.2010,52:319-328.
[8]Samardjieva E,Oike K.,Modelling the number of casualtiesfrom earthquakes,Journal of Natural Disaster Science,1992,14(1):17-28.
[9]Oike,K..A discussion on the relation between magnitudeand number of deaths by earthquakes,Proc.of the Int.Seminar on Earthquake and Hazard Mitigation Technology.1991,Tsukuba,Japan:333-341.
[10]Oike,K.,Hori T..History of earthquakes and seismicdisasters in east Asia.Science,1998,68:409-415.
[11]TsaiYi-ben,Tsung-Ming Yu,Hsiao-Ling Chao,et al.Spatialdistribution and age dependence of human-fatality ratesfrom the Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake of 21 september1999.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.2001,91,5:1298-1309.
[12]Samardjieva E,Badal J.,Estimation of the expected numberof casualties caused by strong earthquakes,Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America.2002,Vol.92,No.6:2310-2322.
[13]程家喻,杨喆．唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,15(1):82-87.
[14]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:48.
[15]洪时中.对日本兵库县南部地震震灾统计时程曲线的初步分析[J].国际地震动态,1995,(5):10-14.
[16]王景来,杨子汉.地震灾害时间进程法[J].地震研究,1997,20(4):424-430.
[17]廖旭,高常波,韩绍欣.不同时刻地震直接人员伤亡人数的预测[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(4):92-96.
[18]赵振东,林均歧,郑向远,等.地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(3):90-96.
[19]赵振东,郑向远,钟江荣.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(04):149-156.
[20]高建国,贾艳.地震救援能力的一项指标——地震灾害发布时间的研究[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):31-35.
[21]刘倬,吴忠良.地震和地震海啸中报道死亡人数随时间变化的一个简单模型[J].中国地震,2006(4):72-75.
[22]杨杰英,李永强,刘丽芳,等.地震三要素对地震伤亡人数的影响分析[J].地震研究,2007,30(2):182-187.
[23]吴新燕,顾建华,吴昊昱.地震报道死亡人数随时间变化的修正指数模型[J].地震学报,2009,31(4):457-463.
[24]王艳茹,王宝光,戴君武,等.“5.12”汶川大地震人员伤亡的时空分布特点[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):52-56.
[25]行政区划网.http://www.xzqh org/quhua.
[26]四川省统计局.四川统计年鉴2008[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[27]都江堰市统计局.2008年都江堰市国民经济和社会发展统计公报[R].四川,都江堰,2009.
[28]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.汶川8.0级地震烈度分布图[OL].http://www.cea.gov.cn/manage/html/8a8587881632fa5c0116674a018300cf/_content/08_08/29/1219979564089.html,2008.
[29]吴昊昱.地震死亡人数的分布与震后快速估计的方法研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2009.
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