蕴震系统的Kolmogorov熵及其可预报性
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摘要
本文简单地回顾了从热力学熵到拓扑熵的熵概念发展历史以及熵理论在地震预报中的应用，着重介绍了Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ熵的理论背景、计算方法、估计方法以及它与系统动力学行为的可预报性问题的关系。以京津唐地区为例，对时间域计算了Ｋ熵在唐山大震前后的变化情况，得出大震前系统存在Ｋ熵下降的趋势，震后又回升。以多台的空间域综合方法计算得到Ｋ熵大于零，对于１０－５～１０－６的观测精度其可报期限为４～５年。
In this paper,we reviewed the history of the concept of entropy from thermodynamics entropy to topological entropy and its application to earthquake prediction. Futher the theory backgrcund,calculation and estimation methods of the Kolmogorov entropy(metricentropy)and the relationship between the K-entropy and the predictability of the dynamic behavior of a system are reported.Taking Beijing-Tianjing area as an example,we calculated the K-entropy and the predictuble term of the time field and the space field.It is found that the K-entropy reduced before large earthquakes and recovered after earthquakes in the time field,and that the K-entropy of the seismogenic system is larger than zero in the space field.This shows that this system has chaotie behavior,meanwhile that the predictable term of the system is 4～5 years.
In this paper,we reviewed the history of the concept of entropy from thermodynamics entropy to topological entropy and its application to earthquake prediction. Futher the theory backgrcund,calculation and estimation methods of the Kolmogorov entropy(metricentropy)and the relationship between the K-entropy and the predictability of the dynamic behavior of a system are reported.Taking Beijing-Tianjing area as an example,we calculated the K-entropy and the predictuble term of the time field and the space field.It is found that the K-entropy reduced before large earthquakes and recovered after earthquakes in the time field,and that the K-entropy of the seismogenic system is larger than zero in the space field.This shows that this system has chaotie behavior,meanwhile that the predictable term of the system is 4～5 years.
引文
1周硕愚．系统科学导引，北京：地震出版社，19882新疆科学技术协会编。熵与交叉科学，气象出版社，19883P．Grassbeerger．Informationflowandmaximumentropymeasuresforl－maps，Dhysica14D，19854KlausFraedrichEstimationweatherandelimatepredictabilityonattractors．J．Atmo．Sci，44，19875P．Grassberger，Estimstionofthekolmogoroventropyfromachaoticsigmal，Phys．Rev．A，19836周硕愚。地壳运动与蕴震系统的白组织及前兆场的有序演进。中国地震，1988，47朱传镇，王林瑛。熵的原理与地震活动研究，地震研究，1988，118胡平等。地震过程动力学行为和可预报性问题研究。地球物理学报，1990，33
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