美国地震风险评估中灾害模型的探讨
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摘要
介绍了以美国地震灾害模型为例的地震风险评估在金融保险业和土木工程两大领域的应用,回顾了地震灾害风险评估发展的历史背景,其中,金融保险业的模型更测重于对历史理赔数据的分析,土木工程业的模型则注重于对工程结构的分析。着重探讨了评估模型中地震灾害部分的建立,其中包括致灾因子模块及孕灾环境模块。针对建模中致灾因子、孕灾环境等的关键要素,如地震源及震级、地震衰减方式、场地土壤土质条件、地震复发率等,作了分析及归纳总结,并系统地介绍了所涉及要素的数据信息获取过程及对应的建模方法,进一步探讨了相应的风险量化的步骤和方法。
The paper introduced the models of risk assessment for earthquake hazard,based on US earthquake hazard assessment model,in the field of insurance and civil engineering.It briefly reviews the modeling history and development background of the models,which could be found that the model for insurance industry was built with historical client claimed data in early years,and the model for civil engineering was based more on the building structural analysis in recent years,with the needs of better accurate assessment of buildings and the fast development of computational mechanics.The paper mainly focuses on the discussion of two modules that consist of the part of geological hazard of the model,the hazard factors,and hazard environments.It details the key components in these modules,such as earthquake sources,magnitude,attenuation equations,local soil conditions,and the earthquake recurrence rate,etc.It lists the updated attenuation formulas that are commonly used in US earthquake modeling.It analyzes the procedure of establishing the key hazard components with standard response spectrum and modified response spectrum,by considering local soil types,liquefaction,and landslides.It provides the information of how to obtain the related exposure data and databases from guidelines and resources.It further discusses the approaches of quantifying the hazard risk factors.
The paper introduced the models of risk assessment for earthquake hazard,based on US earthquake hazard assessment model,in the field of insurance and civil engineering.It briefly reviews the modeling history and development background of the models,which could be found that the model for insurance industry was built with historical client claimed data in early years,and the model for civil engineering was based more on the building structural analysis in recent years,with the needs of better accurate assessment of buildings and the fast development of computational mechanics.The paper mainly focuses on the discussion of two modules that consist of the part of geological hazard of the model,the hazard factors,and hazard environments.It details the key components in these modules,such as earthquake sources,magnitude,attenuation equations,local soil conditions,and the earthquake recurrence rate,etc.It lists the updated attenuation formulas that are commonly used in US earthquake modeling.It analyzes the procedure of establishing the key hazard components with standard response spectrum and modified response spectrum,by considering local soil types,liquefaction,and landslides.It provides the information of how to obtain the related exposure data and databases from guidelines and resources.It further discusses the approaches of quantifying the hazard risk factors.
引文
[1]Applied Technology Council(ATC).ATC-13 Earthquake damageevaluation data for California[S].Redwood City:Applied Tech-nology Council,1985.
[2]Applied Technology Council(ATC).ATC-40 Seismic evaluationand retrofit of concrete buildings[S].Redwood City:AppliedTechnology Council,1996.
[3]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA).NEHRP Guide-lines for the seismic rehabilitation of buildings[S].Washington,D.C.:FEMA,1996
[4]Frankel A D,Peterson M D,Mueller C C,et al.Documentationfor the 2002 update of the national seismic hazard maps[R].USGS:110.
[5]Campbell K W.Prediction of strong ground using the hybrid em-pirical method:Example application to Eastern North America[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2003,93(3):1012-1033.
[6]Atkinson G M,Boore D M.Earthquake ground-motion predictionequations for Eastern North America[J].Bulletin of the Seismo-logical Society of America.2006,96(6):2181-2205.
[7]Federal Emergency Management Agency.1997 NEHRP Recom-mended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings[S].Washington,D.C:FEMA,1997.
[8]National Research Council.Liquefaction of soils during earth-quakes[S].Washington,DC:Committee on Earthquake Engi-neering,Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems,Na-tional Academy Press,1985.
[9]Youd T L,Perkins D M.Mapping of liquefaction induced groundfailure potential[J].Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Divi-sion,American Society of Civil Engineers,1978,104(4):433-446.
[10]Seed H B,Tokimatsu K,Harder L F,et al.Influence of SPTprocedures in soil liquefaction resistance evaluations[J].Journalof Geotechnical Engineering,American Society of Civil Engi-neers,1985,111(12):1425-1445.
[11]Rodriguez-Marek A,Bray J D,Abrahamson N.An empiricalgeotechnical seismic site response procedure[J].EarthquakeSpectra,2001,17(1):68-88.
[12]Wieczorek G F,Wilson R C,Harp E L.Map of Slope Stabilityduring Earthquakes in San Mateo County,California[R].Re-ston:USGS,1985:500.
[13]Aslani H,Miranda E.Probability-based seismic response analy-sis[J].Engineering Structures,2005,27(8):1151-1163
[14]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Seismicity of the Earth and Associat-ed Phenomena[M].2nd ed.Princeton,N.J.:Princeton Uni-versity Press,1954:17-19.
[15]U.S.Geological Survey.California has more than 99%chance ofa big earthquake within 30 years,report shows[N].ScienceDaily,2008-04-14.
[2]Applied Technology Council(ATC).ATC-40 Seismic evaluationand retrofit of concrete buildings[S].Redwood City:AppliedTechnology Council,1996.
[3]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA).NEHRP Guide-lines for the seismic rehabilitation of buildings[S].Washington,D.C.:FEMA,1996
[4]Frankel A D,Peterson M D,Mueller C C,et al.Documentationfor the 2002 update of the national seismic hazard maps[R].USGS:110.
[5]Campbell K W.Prediction of strong ground using the hybrid em-pirical method:Example application to Eastern North America[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2003,93(3):1012-1033.
[6]Atkinson G M,Boore D M.Earthquake ground-motion predictionequations for Eastern North America[J].Bulletin of the Seismo-logical Society of America.2006,96(6):2181-2205.
[7]Federal Emergency Management Agency.1997 NEHRP Recom-mended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings[S].Washington,D.C:FEMA,1997.
[8]National Research Council.Liquefaction of soils during earth-quakes[S].Washington,DC:Committee on Earthquake Engi-neering,Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems,Na-tional Academy Press,1985.
[9]Youd T L,Perkins D M.Mapping of liquefaction induced groundfailure potential[J].Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Divi-sion,American Society of Civil Engineers,1978,104(4):433-446.
[10]Seed H B,Tokimatsu K,Harder L F,et al.Influence of SPTprocedures in soil liquefaction resistance evaluations[J].Journalof Geotechnical Engineering,American Society of Civil Engi-neers,1985,111(12):1425-1445.
[11]Rodriguez-Marek A,Bray J D,Abrahamson N.An empiricalgeotechnical seismic site response procedure[J].EarthquakeSpectra,2001,17(1):68-88.
[12]Wieczorek G F,Wilson R C,Harp E L.Map of Slope Stabilityduring Earthquakes in San Mateo County,California[R].Re-ston:USGS,1985:500.
[13]Aslani H,Miranda E.Probability-based seismic response analy-sis[J].Engineering Structures,2005,27(8):1151-1163
[14]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Seismicity of the Earth and Associat-ed Phenomena[M].2nd ed.Princeton,N.J.:Princeton Uni-versity Press,1954:17-19.
[15]U.S.Geological Survey.California has more than 99%chance ofa big earthquake within 30 years,report shows[N].ScienceDaily,2008-04-14.
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