水库地震最大震级预测初步研究
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摘要
水库地震最大震级综合影响参数E值预测法及其与最大地震的经验关系自1987年被提出后,在很多大型水库中得到了应用并取得了一定的效果。此后20多年又有一批水库地震被确认。该经验关系是否适用值得研究。文中在收集增补最新水库地震资料的基础上,选取48个水库地震震例资料,统计确定了新的水库地震最大震级与综合影响参数的经验模型,并与已有经验模型进行了比较,最后得出水库地震的最大震级上限≯7。
Since the prediction method for maximum magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity by using comprehensive effecting parameter E-value was proposed in 1987,it has been applied to many largescale reservoirs with good effects.After that,a group of reservoir induced earthquakes were confirmed in the past 20 years.The applicability of the model is worth studying.Based on collection of new cases of reservoir induced earthquakes,48 reservoir induced earthquake cases are selected in the paper. A new empirical prediction model of the maximum magnitude with E-value is statistically obtained and compared with the old one.At last,the upper limit of the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake is estimated to be less than M7.
Since the prediction method for maximum magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity by using comprehensive effecting parameter E-value was proposed in 1987,it has been applied to many largescale reservoirs with good effects.After that,a group of reservoir induced earthquakes were confirmed in the past 20 years.The applicability of the model is worth studying.Based on collection of new cases of reservoir induced earthquakes,48 reservoir induced earthquake cases are selected in the paper. A new empirical prediction model of the maximum magnitude with E-value is statistically obtained and compared with the old one.At last,the upper limit of the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake is estimated to be less than M7.
引文
[1]林思诚等,1997,水口水库诱发地震的发展趋势及防震减灾对策研究。
常宝琦.1987.预测水库诱发地震的两个数学模式[J].西北地震学报,9(1):86-102. CHANG Bao-qi.1987.Two mathematic models for prediction of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,9(1):86-102(in Chinese).
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1987.水库“规模”与水库诱发地震震级的预测[J].华南地震,7(1):94-95. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1987.Correlation between“scale”of reservoir and magnitude of induced earthquake [J].South China Journal of Seismology,7(1):94-95(in Chinese).
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1992.水库诱发地震最大震级的预测[J].华南地震,12(1):74-79. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1992.Prediction about the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake[J]. South China Journal of Seismology,12(1):74-79(in Chinese).
常宝琦,沈立英,梁纪彬.1997.水库地震主震发生时间的预测[J].华南地震,17(2):76-82. CHANG Bao-qi,SHEN Li-ying,LIANG Ji-bin.1997.Prediction aboutthe mainshock origin time of reservoir earthquake [J].South China Journal of Seismology,17(2):76-82(in Chinese).
陈益明.1985.柘林水库地震及其震源机制[J].地震,(4):35-41. CHEN Yi-ming.1985.Zhelin reservoir-induced earthquakes and their focal mechanisms[J].Earthquake,(4):35- 41(in Chinese).
樊跃新,王绍晋,管丽霞,等.2007.渔洞水库地区地震活动性和构造应力场分析[J].地震研究,30(1):29-34. FAN Yue-xin,WANG Shao-jin,GUAN Li-xia,et al.2007.Seismic activity and tectonic stress field before and after the water storage of Yudong reservoir in Zhaotong,Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,30(1):29-34 (in Chinese).
高士钧.1992.长江三峡地区地壳应力场与地震[M].北京:地震出版社.123-126. GAO Shi-jun.1992.Crustal Stress Field and Seismicity of the Three Gorge Area[M].Seismological Press,Beijing. 123-126(in Chinese).
胡松.2003.天生桥一级水电站水库蓄水初期的水库地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,24(6):125-130. HU Song.2003.Reservoir induced earthquake in Tianshengqiao No.1 Hydropower Station at incipience of reservoir filling[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,24(6):125-130(in Chinese).
胡毓良,陈献程,张忠连,等.1986.浙江湖南镇水库的诱发地震[J].地震地质,8(4):1-25. HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,ZHANG Zhong-lian,et al.1986.Induced seismicity at Hunanzhen reservoir,Zhejiang Province[J].Seismology and Geology,8(4):1-25(in Chinese).
李杰富,张维平.2002.天生桥一级水电站水库诱发地震震灾处理措施规划设计[J].云南水电技术,(3):5- 9. LI Jie-fu,ZHANG Wei-ping.2002.The treatment plan and design against the seismic hazard of Tianshengqiao No.1 Hydropower Reservoir induced earthquake[J].Yunnan Hydropower Technology,(3):5-9(in Chinese).
刘奇武.1983.南冲水库地震简介[J].华南地震,3(4):59-62. LIU Qi-wu.1983.A brief introduction of Nanchong reservoir induced seismicity[J].South China Journal of Seismology, 3(4):59-62(in Chinese).
王碧泉,陈祖荫.1989.模式识别理论、方法和应用[M].北京:地震出版社.125-135. WANG Bi-quan,CHEN Zu-yin.1989.Pattern Recognition Theory,Methods and Applications[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.125-135(in Chinese).
王国英.1989.湖南省黄石水库地震考察与追踪[J].华南地震,9(4):67-72. WANG Guo-ying.1989.Seismic survey on the Huangshi reservoir induced earthquake[J].South China Journal of Seismology,9(4):67-72(in Chinese).
王清云,高士钧.1998.隔河岩水库诱发地震的环境条件[J].地壳形变与地震,18(3):73-79. WANG Qing-yun,GAO Shi-jun.1998.Environmental conditions of induced earthquake in Geheyan reservoir[J]. Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,18(3):73-79(in Chinese).
夏其发.1993.《世界水库诱发地震震例基本参数汇总表》暨水库诱发地震评述〈二〉[J].中国地质灾害与防治预报,(1):87-96. XIA Qi-fa.1993.Summary of basic parameters of reservoir induced earthquake cases of the world and review of reservoir induced seismicity(2)[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,(1):87-96(in Chinese).
肖安予.1990.南水水库地震及其发展趋势[J].华南地震,10(2):68-77. XIAO An-yu.1990.The reservoir induced earthquake in Nanshui and its developing tendency[J].South China Journal of Seismology,10(2):68-77(in Chinese).
徐礼华,刘素梅.2005.丹江口水库二期工程诱发地震强度预测[J].武汉理工大学学报,27(1):58-61. XU Li-hua,LIU Su-mei.2005.Strength evaluation of induced seismicity in the second phase of the project of Dan- jiangkou reservoir construction[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,27(1):58-61(in Chinese).
许强,黄润秋.1996.用神经网络理论预测水库诱发地震[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,7(3):10-17. XU Qiang,HUANG Run-qiu.1996.The prediction of reservoir-induced seismicity using artificial neural network[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,7(3):10-17(in Chinese).
许振栋,罗家天,余庆旺,等.2007.福建水口水库诱发地震及其发展趋势探讨[J].大地测量与地球动力学,27 (3):106-112.
XU Zhen-dong,LUO Jia-tian,YU Qing-wang,et al.2007.Discussion on induced earthquake in Shuikou reservoir area of Fujian Province and seismic activity trend[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,27(3):106-112(in Chinese).
杨国周,欧阳凰.1998.东江水库地震活动特征[J].华南地震,18(2):78-83. YANG Guo-zhou,OUYANG Huang.1998.An analysis of Dongjiang reservoir earthquake and its seismicity characteristics [J].South China Journal of Seismology,18(2):78-83(in Chinese).
杨清源,陈献程,胡毓良,等.1996a.应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级[J].华南地震,16(2):75-79. YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xian-cheng,HU Yu-liang,et al.1996.Prediction of the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake in the Three Gorges reservoir region using GREY cluster method[J].South China Journal of Seismology,16(2):75-79(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程,等.1996b.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):454-461. YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,et al.1996b.Catalogue of reservoir induced seismic events in the world[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):454-461(in Chinese).
杨又陵,杨欣.1996.新疆克孜尔震群活动与水库蓄水关系研究[J].内陆地震,10(2):147-154. YANG You-ling,YANG Xin.1996.Study on the relation between earthquake swarm activity and water storage of reservoir in Xinjiang Kezi'er area[J].Inland Earthquake,10(2):147-154(in Chinese).
于品清,孔凡健.1983.水库地震地质构造条件的讨论[J].地壳形变与地震,3(3):71-81. YU Pin-qing,KONG Fan-jian.1983.The discussion of RIS geological condition[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake, 3(3):71-81(in Chinese).
余永毓.1987.逻辑信息法在水库诱发地震研究中的应用[J].地震学报,9(增刊):413-421. YU Yong-yu.1987.The applications of logical information methods in the reservoir induced earthquake[J].Acts Seismologica Sinica,9(Suppl):413-421(in Chinese).
曾心传,高士钧.1989.水诱发地震应力场初步探讨[J].华南地震,9(1):73-85. ZENG Xin-chuan,GAO Shi-jun.1989.A preliminary study on the stress field of water induced-earthquake[J].South China Seismological Journal,9(1):73-85(in Chinese).
Baecher B G,Keeney R L.1982.Statistical examination of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(2):553-569.
Packer D R,Cluff L S.1979.A study of reservoir induced seismicity[R].Woodward-Clyde Consultants,USA,US Geol Surv,Contract 14-08-0001-16809.
YANG Feng-jung,LIEN Shang-yao,HO Ta-fu,et al.2008.Dam modification designs for raising reservoir water level-Case study of Tsengwen dam in Taiwan[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,30(11):1643-1650.
常宝琦.1987.预测水库诱发地震的两个数学模式[J].西北地震学报,9(1):86-102. CHANG Bao-qi.1987.Two mathematic models for prediction of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,9(1):86-102(in Chinese).
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1987.水库“规模”与水库诱发地震震级的预测[J].华南地震,7(1):94-95. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1987.Correlation between“scale”of reservoir and magnitude of induced earthquake [J].South China Journal of Seismology,7(1):94-95(in Chinese).
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1992.水库诱发地震最大震级的预测[J].华南地震,12(1):74-79. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1992.Prediction about the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake[J]. South China Journal of Seismology,12(1):74-79(in Chinese).
常宝琦,沈立英,梁纪彬.1997.水库地震主震发生时间的预测[J].华南地震,17(2):76-82. CHANG Bao-qi,SHEN Li-ying,LIANG Ji-bin.1997.Prediction aboutthe mainshock origin time of reservoir earthquake [J].South China Journal of Seismology,17(2):76-82(in Chinese).
陈益明.1985.柘林水库地震及其震源机制[J].地震,(4):35-41. CHEN Yi-ming.1985.Zhelin reservoir-induced earthquakes and their focal mechanisms[J].Earthquake,(4):35- 41(in Chinese).
樊跃新,王绍晋,管丽霞,等.2007.渔洞水库地区地震活动性和构造应力场分析[J].地震研究,30(1):29-34. FAN Yue-xin,WANG Shao-jin,GUAN Li-xia,et al.2007.Seismic activity and tectonic stress field before and after the water storage of Yudong reservoir in Zhaotong,Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,30(1):29-34 (in Chinese).
高士钧.1992.长江三峡地区地壳应力场与地震[M].北京:地震出版社.123-126. GAO Shi-jun.1992.Crustal Stress Field and Seismicity of the Three Gorge Area[M].Seismological Press,Beijing. 123-126(in Chinese).
胡松.2003.天生桥一级水电站水库蓄水初期的水库地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,24(6):125-130. HU Song.2003.Reservoir induced earthquake in Tianshengqiao No.1 Hydropower Station at incipience of reservoir filling[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,24(6):125-130(in Chinese).
胡毓良,陈献程,张忠连,等.1986.浙江湖南镇水库的诱发地震[J].地震地质,8(4):1-25. HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,ZHANG Zhong-lian,et al.1986.Induced seismicity at Hunanzhen reservoir,Zhejiang Province[J].Seismology and Geology,8(4):1-25(in Chinese).
李杰富,张维平.2002.天生桥一级水电站水库诱发地震震灾处理措施规划设计[J].云南水电技术,(3):5- 9. LI Jie-fu,ZHANG Wei-ping.2002.The treatment plan and design against the seismic hazard of Tianshengqiao No.1 Hydropower Reservoir induced earthquake[J].Yunnan Hydropower Technology,(3):5-9(in Chinese).
刘奇武.1983.南冲水库地震简介[J].华南地震,3(4):59-62. LIU Qi-wu.1983.A brief introduction of Nanchong reservoir induced seismicity[J].South China Journal of Seismology, 3(4):59-62(in Chinese).
王碧泉,陈祖荫.1989.模式识别理论、方法和应用[M].北京:地震出版社.125-135. WANG Bi-quan,CHEN Zu-yin.1989.Pattern Recognition Theory,Methods and Applications[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.125-135(in Chinese).
王国英.1989.湖南省黄石水库地震考察与追踪[J].华南地震,9(4):67-72. WANG Guo-ying.1989.Seismic survey on the Huangshi reservoir induced earthquake[J].South China Journal of Seismology,9(4):67-72(in Chinese).
王清云,高士钧.1998.隔河岩水库诱发地震的环境条件[J].地壳形变与地震,18(3):73-79. WANG Qing-yun,GAO Shi-jun.1998.Environmental conditions of induced earthquake in Geheyan reservoir[J]. Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,18(3):73-79(in Chinese).
夏其发.1993.《世界水库诱发地震震例基本参数汇总表》暨水库诱发地震评述〈二〉[J].中国地质灾害与防治预报,(1):87-96. XIA Qi-fa.1993.Summary of basic parameters of reservoir induced earthquake cases of the world and review of reservoir induced seismicity(2)[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,(1):87-96(in Chinese).
肖安予.1990.南水水库地震及其发展趋势[J].华南地震,10(2):68-77. XIAO An-yu.1990.The reservoir induced earthquake in Nanshui and its developing tendency[J].South China Journal of Seismology,10(2):68-77(in Chinese).
徐礼华,刘素梅.2005.丹江口水库二期工程诱发地震强度预测[J].武汉理工大学学报,27(1):58-61. XU Li-hua,LIU Su-mei.2005.Strength evaluation of induced seismicity in the second phase of the project of Dan- jiangkou reservoir construction[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,27(1):58-61(in Chinese).
许强,黄润秋.1996.用神经网络理论预测水库诱发地震[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,7(3):10-17. XU Qiang,HUANG Run-qiu.1996.The prediction of reservoir-induced seismicity using artificial neural network[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,7(3):10-17(in Chinese).
许振栋,罗家天,余庆旺,等.2007.福建水口水库诱发地震及其发展趋势探讨[J].大地测量与地球动力学,27 (3):106-112.
XU Zhen-dong,LUO Jia-tian,YU Qing-wang,et al.2007.Discussion on induced earthquake in Shuikou reservoir area of Fujian Province and seismic activity trend[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,27(3):106-112(in Chinese).
杨国周,欧阳凰.1998.东江水库地震活动特征[J].华南地震,18(2):78-83. YANG Guo-zhou,OUYANG Huang.1998.An analysis of Dongjiang reservoir earthquake and its seismicity characteristics [J].South China Journal of Seismology,18(2):78-83(in Chinese).
杨清源,陈献程,胡毓良,等.1996a.应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级[J].华南地震,16(2):75-79. YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xian-cheng,HU Yu-liang,et al.1996.Prediction of the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake in the Three Gorges reservoir region using GREY cluster method[J].South China Journal of Seismology,16(2):75-79(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程,等.1996b.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):454-461. YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,et al.1996b.Catalogue of reservoir induced seismic events in the world[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):454-461(in Chinese).
杨又陵,杨欣.1996.新疆克孜尔震群活动与水库蓄水关系研究[J].内陆地震,10(2):147-154. YANG You-ling,YANG Xin.1996.Study on the relation between earthquake swarm activity and water storage of reservoir in Xinjiang Kezi'er area[J].Inland Earthquake,10(2):147-154(in Chinese).
于品清,孔凡健.1983.水库地震地质构造条件的讨论[J].地壳形变与地震,3(3):71-81. YU Pin-qing,KONG Fan-jian.1983.The discussion of RIS geological condition[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake, 3(3):71-81(in Chinese).
余永毓.1987.逻辑信息法在水库诱发地震研究中的应用[J].地震学报,9(增刊):413-421. YU Yong-yu.1987.The applications of logical information methods in the reservoir induced earthquake[J].Acts Seismologica Sinica,9(Suppl):413-421(in Chinese).
曾心传,高士钧.1989.水诱发地震应力场初步探讨[J].华南地震,9(1):73-85. ZENG Xin-chuan,GAO Shi-jun.1989.A preliminary study on the stress field of water induced-earthquake[J].South China Seismological Journal,9(1):73-85(in Chinese).
Baecher B G,Keeney R L.1982.Statistical examination of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(2):553-569.
Packer D R,Cluff L S.1979.A study of reservoir induced seismicity[R].Woodward-Clyde Consultants,USA,US Geol Surv,Contract 14-08-0001-16809.
YANG Feng-jung,LIEN Shang-yao,HO Ta-fu,et al.2008.Dam modification designs for raising reservoir water level-Case study of Tsengwen dam in Taiwan[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,30(11):1643-1650.
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