汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析
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摘要
清理了汶川8.0级地震前四川省地震局收到的每周、月度各单位或个人上报的各类异常资料。这些宏观异常现象主要包括居民生活用井水质变化、泉水变化,气象、动、植物异常现象等。2002~2003年宏观异常现象集中分布在凉山州,多数沿安宁河—则木河构造带以及川滇交界西侧分布;2004~2008年5月宏观异常现象散布在龙门山、龙泉山、鲜水河—安宁河—则木河构造带以及川滇交界地区。四川地区宏观异常项数在2002年4~6月,2003年6~8月间为最为集中出现的两个时段,之后零星出现。对震前龙门山构造带附近出现的宏观现象进行分析后,我们看不出与地震间的必然联系,难以作为预测未来大地震的依据。
The data about the macroscopic anomaly phenomenae reported to Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province by persons or seismic office befor the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake are summaried.These macroscopic anormaly phenomenae include changes such as water quality of resident well,groundwater level,local climate,animal behavoir and plants.The macroscopic abnormal phenomenae reported from 2002 to 2003 mainly distributed in Liangshan Prefecture,Sichuan Province,and most of them distributed along the faults of Anninghe-Zemuhe and western boundary between Sichuan and Yunnan.The macroscopic abnormal phenomenae reported from 2004 to 2008 distributed separately in Longmenshan,Longquanshan,Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Zemuhe seismotectonic regions and boundary areas between Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.The iterm number of macroscopic anomaly phenomenae in Sichuan province is high in two periods.The first period is from April to June,2002,and the second is from June to August,2008.After these two periods,a few of macroscopic anormaly phenomenae appeared.We analyze the macroscopic anomaly phenomenae only reported from the areas of Longmenshan seismotectonic faults before the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake and think that there is no clear connection between the macroscopic anormaly phenomenae and the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.We think that it is difficulty to predict earthquake according to the macroscopic anormaly phenomenae.
The data about the macroscopic anomaly phenomenae reported to Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province by persons or seismic office befor the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake are summaried.These macroscopic anormaly phenomenae include changes such as water quality of resident well,groundwater level,local climate,animal behavoir and plants.The macroscopic abnormal phenomenae reported from 2002 to 2003 mainly distributed in Liangshan Prefecture,Sichuan Province,and most of them distributed along the faults of Anninghe-Zemuhe and western boundary between Sichuan and Yunnan.The macroscopic abnormal phenomenae reported from 2004 to 2008 distributed separately in Longmenshan,Longquanshan,Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Zemuhe seismotectonic regions and boundary areas between Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.The iterm number of macroscopic anomaly phenomenae in Sichuan province is high in two periods.The first period is from April to June,2002,and the second is from June to August,2008.After these two periods,a few of macroscopic anormaly phenomenae appeared.We analyze the macroscopic anomaly phenomenae only reported from the areas of Longmenshan seismotectonic faults before the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake and think that there is no clear connection between the macroscopic anormaly phenomenae and the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.We think that it is difficulty to predict earthquake according to the macroscopic anormaly phenomenae.
引文
[1]力武常次著,耿庆国翻译.地震前兆现象[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[2]国家地震局预测预防司.地震宏观异常预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.
[2]国家地震局预测预防司.地震宏观异常预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.
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