加卸载响应比理论应用于堆积层滑坡预报
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摘要
加卸载响应比理论是一种用于研究非线性系统失稳前兆和进行失稳预报的新理论,目前主要用于地震预报方面。对将该理论应用于探索滑坡前兆和滑坡中期预报作了探讨。降雨是影响斜坡稳定性的外部因素中最常变化的因素,也常是滑坡的诱发因素。针对降雨在堆积层滑坡孕育、发生过程中的关键作用,以降雨变化作为加卸载手段,建立了降雨型堆积层滑坡的加卸载响应比预测模型,并以新滩滑坡为例进行了预报。结果表明,文中提出的加卸载响应比方法可作为滑坡预报的手段,且在某些方面它比常规预报方法更具优势。
The loading/unloading response ratio(LURR) theory is a new method applied to studying precursor and prediction of instability for nonlinear systems.There are a few examples of this theory applied in landslide prediction and it is primarily used for earthquake forecast at present.This paper gives a further study on this theory applied in seeking for precursor and landslide forecast.Rainfall is the most frequently changing factor in all exterior factors that influence slope stability.And it is usually the factor that triggers landslide.As the key role played by rainfall on accumulative landslide is concerned,a prediction for the known Xintan landslide was carried out by means of LURR method,where the changing water effect was selected as loading/unloading measures.The result shows that LURR method can be used as a new means to forecast landslide,and it has an advantage over conventional landslide forecast methods in some aspects.
The loading/unloading response ratio(LURR) theory is a new method applied to studying precursor and prediction of instability for nonlinear systems.There are a few examples of this theory applied in landslide prediction and it is primarily used for earthquake forecast at present.This paper gives a further study on this theory applied in seeking for precursor and landslide forecast.Rainfall is the most frequently changing factor in all exterior factors that influence slope stability.And it is usually the factor that triggers landslide.As the key role played by rainfall on accumulative landslide is concerned,a prediction for the known Xintan landslide was carried out by means of LURR method,where the changing water effect was selected as loading/unloading measures.The result shows that LURR method can be used as a new means to forecast landslide,and it has an advantage over conventional landslide forecast methods in some aspects.
引文
[1]尹祥础.加卸载响应比理论及其在地震预测中的应用研究进展[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(1):223-230.
[2]Y in X iang-chu,Y in Can.The precursor of instab ility for non linear system s and its application to the earthquake pred ication[J].Science in Ch i-na(B),1991,38:977-986.
[3]Y in X iang-chu,Chen Xue-zhong,Song Zh i-p ing,Y in Can.The load-un load response ratio theory:a new approach to earthquake pred iction[J].Ch inese Journal of Geophysics(English),1994,37(6):765-775.
[4]许强,黄润秋.用加卸载响应比理论探讨边坡失稳前兆[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(2):25-30.
[5]胡广韬.滑坡动力学研究的回顾与展望[J].地学工程进展,1997,14(1-2):14-22.
[6]薛果夫,吕贵芳,任江.中国典型滑坡[M].北京:科学出版社,1988.
[7]湖北省西陵峡岩崩调查工作处.新滩滑坡及其监测预报[A].新滩滑坡讨论会文集[C].1985.14-33.
[2]Y in X iang-chu,Y in Can.The precursor of instab ility for non linear system s and its application to the earthquake pred ication[J].Science in Ch i-na(B),1991,38:977-986.
[3]Y in X iang-chu,Chen Xue-zhong,Song Zh i-p ing,Y in Can.The load-un load response ratio theory:a new approach to earthquake pred iction[J].Ch inese Journal of Geophysics(English),1994,37(6):765-775.
[4]许强,黄润秋.用加卸载响应比理论探讨边坡失稳前兆[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(2):25-30.
[5]胡广韬.滑坡动力学研究的回顾与展望[J].地学工程进展,1997,14(1-2):14-22.
[6]薛果夫,吕贵芳,任江.中国典型滑坡[M].北京:科学出版社,1988.
[7]湖北省西陵峡岩崩调查工作处.新滩滑坡及其监测预报[A].新滩滑坡讨论会文集[C].1985.14-33.
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