云南怒江流域泥石流敏感性空间分析
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摘要
泥石流敏感性空间分析是通过评估诱发泥石流发生的因子,应用空间技术,进行泥石流发生的敏感性分析。本文探讨了GIS技术与敏感性分析的条件概率模型相结合的泥石流敏感性空间分析,并且阐述了GIS空间分析技术在泥石流敏感性制图中特有的优越性。研究区选择在遭受泥石流危害严重的云南怒江流域。用于泥石流敏感性分析评价的主要敏感因子包括地形坡度、岩土体类型、暴雨、河网密度、土地利用、地震动峰值加速度和人类活动。在对这些因子进行了敏感性空间分析的基础上,应用GIS的分析工具对敏感因子集成评价而产生了云南怒江流域泥石流敏感性评价图。泥石流敏感性评价图可以帮助规划者或工程师在土地发展规划中选择最佳建设场所,以减轻泥石流灾害的影响。
Susceptibility spatial analysis of debris flows is to evaluate triggering factors for debris flow occurrence and divide the land surface into zones of varying degrees of susceptibility, based on spatial analysis technology. For the purposes of assessing debris flow susceptibility, a GIS spatial analysis combined with condition probability model of susceptibility analysis can estimate the probability of possible occurrence of debris flows. This paper discusses the potential of combining GIS technology with susceptibility modeling in debris flow analysis and also outlines the special advantage of GIS application for susceptibility mapping. The study area is located in the Nujiang River Basin of Yunnan, where is seriously suffering from debris flow hazards. Seven factors impacting debris flow susceptibility are analyzed: slope angle, rock and soil type, rainstorm distribution, trainage density, land use, seismic acceleration and human activities. According to the susceptibility spatial analysis of these factors,the susceptibility evaluation map was generated using GIS to conduct factor integration analysis. Then we classified each factor into three grades based on results of susceptibility calculation. With regard to debris flow susceptibility index, the study area is divided in to three susceptibility zones. The debris flow susceptibility zona-tion map shows that the high susceptibility zone covers an area of 4147 km2 or 12. 8% of the total study area; the middle susceptibility zone covers an area of 13931 km2 or 42. 9% and the low has an area of 13931 km2or 44. 3%. The susceptibility zonation map can help planners or engineers to choose the optimum construction locations for implemen-ting land development schemes in order to reduce the impact of debris flow on the study area.
Susceptibility spatial analysis of debris flows is to evaluate triggering factors for debris flow occurrence and divide the land surface into zones of varying degrees of susceptibility, based on spatial analysis technology. For the purposes of assessing debris flow susceptibility, a GIS spatial analysis combined with condition probability model of susceptibility analysis can estimate the probability of possible occurrence of debris flows. This paper discusses the potential of combining GIS technology with susceptibility modeling in debris flow analysis and also outlines the special advantage of GIS application for susceptibility mapping. The study area is located in the Nujiang River Basin of Yunnan, where is seriously suffering from debris flow hazards. Seven factors impacting debris flow susceptibility are analyzed: slope angle, rock and soil type, rainstorm distribution, trainage density, land use, seismic acceleration and human activities. According to the susceptibility spatial analysis of these factors,the susceptibility evaluation map was generated using GIS to conduct factor integration analysis. Then we classified each factor into three grades based on results of susceptibility calculation. With regard to debris flow susceptibility index, the study area is divided in to three susceptibility zones. The debris flow susceptibility zona-tion map shows that the high susceptibility zone covers an area of 4147 km2 or 12. 8% of the total study area; the middle susceptibility zone covers an area of 13931 km2 or 42. 9% and the low has an area of 13931 km2or 44. 3%. The susceptibility zonation map can help planners or engineers to choose the optimum construction locations for implemen-ting land development schemes in order to reduce the impact of debris flow on the study area.
引文
[1]唐川,朱静.云南滑坡泥石流研究.北京:商务印书馆,2003.14-25.
[2] 戴福初.暴雨滑坡泥石流的研究进展与趋向.地理研究,1998,17(增刊):117-123.
[3] 刘希林.泥石流易损度评价.地理研究,2002,21(5):569-577.
[4]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性分析.北京:科学出版社,1995.35-61.
[5] Corominas J, Ramon C. Integrated landslide susceptibility analysis and hazard assessment in the principality of Andorra. Natural Hazards ,2003 ,30:421 -435.
[6] Leroi E. Landslide hazard-Risk maps at different scales: Objectives, tools and development. In: Proc. Seventh International Symposium on Landslides. Trondheim, Norway, 1996.35 - 52.
[7] Einstein H H. Landslide risk-systematic approaches to assessment and management. In:Cruden D M, Fell R (eds. ). Landslide Risk Assessment. Rotterdam:A. A. Balkema, 1997. 51 - 109.
[8] Fell R, Hartford D. Landslide risk management. D. M. Cruden, R. Fell, Landslide Risk Assessment,Rotterdam: A. A. Balkema,1997. 51 - 109.
[9] 闫满存,王光谦,刘家宏,GIS支持的澜沧江下游区泥石流爆发危险性评价.地理科学,2001,21(4):334-338.
[10] 唐川,朱静.GIS支持下的滇西北地区泥石流灾害评价.水土保持学报,2001,15(6):84-87.
[11] 陈晓清,谢洪.基于GIS的泥石流危险度区划研究--以拟建向家坝、溪洛渡水电工程库区为例.土壤侵蚀与水 土保持学报,1999,5(6):46-51.
[12]唐川,朱大奎.基于GIS技术的泥石流风险评价研究.地理科学,2002,22(3):300-304.
[13]兰恒星,伍法权.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析.岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500 -1506.
[14]兰恒星,伍法权.GIS支持下的降雨型滑坡危险性空间分析预测.科学通报,2003,48(5):506-513.
[15]唐川.金沙江流域(云南境内)山地灾害危险性评价.山地学报,2004,22(4):451-460.
[16] Aldo C, Susanna P. A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method. Geomorphology, 2002,48:349 - 364.
[17] David J W, Paul F H. Mapping landslide susceptibility in Travis County, Texas, USA. GeoJournal,2000,51: 245 - 253.
[18] Baeza C, Corominas J. Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of multivariate statistical techniques. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2001, 26: 1251 - 1263.
[19] Van Westen C J. Application of Geographic Information Systems to Landslide Hazard Zonation. ITC Publication, 1993,15:245 - 265.
[20] 唐川,Jorg Grunert.滑坡灾害评价原理和方法研究.地理学报,1998,53(增刊):149-157.
[21] 唐川.云南省泥石流灾害区域特征调查与分析.云南地理环境研究,1997,9(1):1-10.
[22] 钟敦伦,谢洪,韦方强.长江上游泥石流危险度区划研究.山地研究,1994,12(2):65-70.
[23] 朱平一,程尊兰,汪阳春.长江上游暴雨泥石流与环境研究.水土保持学报,2000,14(5):35-62.
[24] Aniya A. Landslide-Susceptibility Mapping in the Amahata River Basin. Japan. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. , 1985, 75(1) :102 -114.
[25] Brabb E E, Pampeyan E H, Bonilla M G. Landslide Susceptibility in San Mateo County, California. Misc. Field Studies Map MF360 (scale 1 : 62,500). US Geological Survey, Reston,VA. 1972.
[26] Alison J R. A GIS for the prediction of landsliding potential and hazard in Southwest Greece. Z. Geomorphology, 1993,87(Suppl. ):141-149.
[27] Wadge G. The potential of GIS modeling of gravity flows and slop instability. Int. J. Geographical Information Systems,1994,2(2):143-152.
[28] Carrar A, Guzzetti F. Use of GIS technology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard. Natural Hazards, 1999, 20:117 - 135.
[29] Nuria S, Baezab B. A GIS-Based Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in LaPobla de Lillet Area (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). Natural Hazards,2003 ,30: 281 - 295.
[30] Chau K T, Sze Y L. Landslide hazard analysis for Hong Kong using landslide inventory and GIS. Computers &
Geosciences,2004, 30:429 - 443.
[31] Varnes D J. Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principle and practice. UNESCO, 75700 Paris, France,1984.
[32] Jones D K C. Landslide hazard assessment in the context of development. In: McCall G J H, Laming D C, Scott S C. Geohazards-nature and man-made. 1992. 117 - 142.
[33] Liu X, Lei J Z. A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China). Geomorphology, 2003 ,52 :181 -191.
[34] 朱平一,程尊兰,刘雷激.泥石流活动与雨强的关系--以雅砻江下游金龙沟为例,自然灾害学报,1998,7(1): 118-120.
[35]唐邦兴.山洪泥石流滑坡灾害及防治.北京:科学出版社,1994.83-97.
[36] 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所.泥石流研究与防治,成都:四川科技出版社,1989,27-50.
[37]李树德,任秀生,岳升阳,等.地震与泥石流活动.水土保持研究,2001,8(2):26-28.
[38] Panizza M. Geomorphology and seismic risk. Earth-science Review, 1991, 31: 11 - 20.
[39] Tang C,Grunert J. Inventory of Landslides Triggered by the February, 1996 Lijiang Earthquake, China, Transaction, Japanese Geomorphological Union, 1999, 20(1):336 - 349.
[40] 章文波.用雨量和雨强计算次降雨侵蚀力.地理研究,2002,21(3):384-390.
[41] Carrasco R M, Pedraza J F. Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques. Natural Hazards, 2003, 30: 361-381.
[42] 黄诗峰.洪水灾害风险评价初析.地理研究,1998,(增刊):71-78.
[43] 何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价.自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):85-91.
[2] 戴福初.暴雨滑坡泥石流的研究进展与趋向.地理研究,1998,17(增刊):117-123.
[3] 刘希林.泥石流易损度评价.地理研究,2002,21(5):569-577.
[4]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性分析.北京:科学出版社,1995.35-61.
[5] Corominas J, Ramon C. Integrated landslide susceptibility analysis and hazard assessment in the principality of Andorra. Natural Hazards ,2003 ,30:421 -435.
[6] Leroi E. Landslide hazard-Risk maps at different scales: Objectives, tools and development. In: Proc. Seventh International Symposium on Landslides. Trondheim, Norway, 1996.35 - 52.
[7] Einstein H H. Landslide risk-systematic approaches to assessment and management. In:Cruden D M, Fell R (eds. ). Landslide Risk Assessment. Rotterdam:A. A. Balkema, 1997. 51 - 109.
[8] Fell R, Hartford D. Landslide risk management. D. M. Cruden, R. Fell, Landslide Risk Assessment,Rotterdam: A. A. Balkema,1997. 51 - 109.
[9] 闫满存,王光谦,刘家宏,GIS支持的澜沧江下游区泥石流爆发危险性评价.地理科学,2001,21(4):334-338.
[10] 唐川,朱静.GIS支持下的滇西北地区泥石流灾害评价.水土保持学报,2001,15(6):84-87.
[11] 陈晓清,谢洪.基于GIS的泥石流危险度区划研究--以拟建向家坝、溪洛渡水电工程库区为例.土壤侵蚀与水 土保持学报,1999,5(6):46-51.
[12]唐川,朱大奎.基于GIS技术的泥石流风险评价研究.地理科学,2002,22(3):300-304.
[13]兰恒星,伍法权.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析.岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500 -1506.
[14]兰恒星,伍法权.GIS支持下的降雨型滑坡危险性空间分析预测.科学通报,2003,48(5):506-513.
[15]唐川.金沙江流域(云南境内)山地灾害危险性评价.山地学报,2004,22(4):451-460.
[16] Aldo C, Susanna P. A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method. Geomorphology, 2002,48:349 - 364.
[17] David J W, Paul F H. Mapping landslide susceptibility in Travis County, Texas, USA. GeoJournal,2000,51: 245 - 253.
[18] Baeza C, Corominas J. Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of multivariate statistical techniques. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2001, 26: 1251 - 1263.
[19] Van Westen C J. Application of Geographic Information Systems to Landslide Hazard Zonation. ITC Publication, 1993,15:245 - 265.
[20] 唐川,Jorg Grunert.滑坡灾害评价原理和方法研究.地理学报,1998,53(增刊):149-157.
[21] 唐川.云南省泥石流灾害区域特征调查与分析.云南地理环境研究,1997,9(1):1-10.
[22] 钟敦伦,谢洪,韦方强.长江上游泥石流危险度区划研究.山地研究,1994,12(2):65-70.
[23] 朱平一,程尊兰,汪阳春.长江上游暴雨泥石流与环境研究.水土保持学报,2000,14(5):35-62.
[24] Aniya A. Landslide-Susceptibility Mapping in the Amahata River Basin. Japan. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. , 1985, 75(1) :102 -114.
[25] Brabb E E, Pampeyan E H, Bonilla M G. Landslide Susceptibility in San Mateo County, California. Misc. Field Studies Map MF360 (scale 1 : 62,500). US Geological Survey, Reston,VA. 1972.
[26] Alison J R. A GIS for the prediction of landsliding potential and hazard in Southwest Greece. Z. Geomorphology, 1993,87(Suppl. ):141-149.
[27] Wadge G. The potential of GIS modeling of gravity flows and slop instability. Int. J. Geographical Information Systems,1994,2(2):143-152.
[28] Carrar A, Guzzetti F. Use of GIS technology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard. Natural Hazards, 1999, 20:117 - 135.
[29] Nuria S, Baezab B. A GIS-Based Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in LaPobla de Lillet Area (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). Natural Hazards,2003 ,30: 281 - 295.
[30] Chau K T, Sze Y L. Landslide hazard analysis for Hong Kong using landslide inventory and GIS. Computers &
Geosciences,2004, 30:429 - 443.
[31] Varnes D J. Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principle and practice. UNESCO, 75700 Paris, France,1984.
[32] Jones D K C. Landslide hazard assessment in the context of development. In: McCall G J H, Laming D C, Scott S C. Geohazards-nature and man-made. 1992. 117 - 142.
[33] Liu X, Lei J Z. A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China). Geomorphology, 2003 ,52 :181 -191.
[34] 朱平一,程尊兰,刘雷激.泥石流活动与雨强的关系--以雅砻江下游金龙沟为例,自然灾害学报,1998,7(1): 118-120.
[35]唐邦兴.山洪泥石流滑坡灾害及防治.北京:科学出版社,1994.83-97.
[36] 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所.泥石流研究与防治,成都:四川科技出版社,1989,27-50.
[37]李树德,任秀生,岳升阳,等.地震与泥石流活动.水土保持研究,2001,8(2):26-28.
[38] Panizza M. Geomorphology and seismic risk. Earth-science Review, 1991, 31: 11 - 20.
[39] Tang C,Grunert J. Inventory of Landslides Triggered by the February, 1996 Lijiang Earthquake, China, Transaction, Japanese Geomorphological Union, 1999, 20(1):336 - 349.
[40] 章文波.用雨量和雨强计算次降雨侵蚀力.地理研究,2002,21(3):384-390.
[41] Carrasco R M, Pedraza J F. Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques. Natural Hazards, 2003, 30: 361-381.
[42] 黄诗峰.洪水灾害风险评价初析.地理研究,1998,(增刊):71-78.
[43] 何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价.自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):85-91.
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