基于岩石声发射实验结果探讨地震活动状态变化的预测意义
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摘要
根据室内岩石破裂实验声发射结果,论证了地震非均匀度参数(GL值)在识别声发射活动状态变化的有效性,同时也考察了状态变化参量计算结果的稳定性。在此基础上,借用前苏联地震学家Mjachkin等提出的地震孕育至发生的雪崩不稳定裂隙形成模式,探讨了部分强地震孕育过程中,区域地震活动由无序到有序状态变化的可能形成机理。利用地震状态参数,即地震非均匀度(GL值)尝试开展了对我国未来一个时期地震大形势的定量分析预测。
In this paper,we demonstrate the efficiency of seismic inhomogeneous degree(GL value) during the process of distinguishing anomalous variation of the regionally seismic state based on the acoustic emission(AE) result.At the same time we also check the stability of the results calculated by using the method of seismic state variation.The possible mechanism of the state variation of seismicity from normal state to anomalous one during the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes is investigated using the IPE model put forward by Mjachkin et al.By means of the method of state variation calculation,or the seismic inhomogeneous degree(GL value),the possible tendency of strong earthquakes in the mainland of China is estimated.
In this paper,we demonstrate the efficiency of seismic inhomogeneous degree(GL value) during the process of distinguishing anomalous variation of the regionally seismic state based on the acoustic emission(AE) result.At the same time we also check the stability of the results calculated by using the method of seismic state variation.The possible mechanism of the state variation of seismicity from normal state to anomalous one during the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes is investigated using the IPE model put forward by Mjachkin et al.By means of the method of state variation calculation,or the seismic inhomogeneous degree(GL value),the possible tendency of strong earthquakes in the mainland of China is estimated.
引文
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[6]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,26(3):426-435.
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[13]Locker D A,Byerlee J D.Development of fracture planes during creep in granite[M].In:Hardy,H.R.,Leighton,F.W.(Eds),Proceedings of the 2th Conference on Acoustic Emission,Mocro-seismic Activity in Geological Structures and Materials.Trans-tech.Publications,Clausthal-Zeller-feld,1980,11-25.
[14]Locker D A,Byerlee J D,Kuksenko V S.Observations of quasistatatic fault growth from acoustic e-missions[M].In:Evans B.,Wong T.-F.(Eds),Fault Mechanics and Transport Properties ofRocks.Academic Press,London,1992,3-31.
[15]Mjachkin V I,Bruce W F,Sobolev G.A.Two Models for Earthquake Forerunners[J].Pageoph,1975,113:169-181.
[16]陈章立.浅论地震预报地震学方法基础[M].北京:地震出版社,2004.
[17]王炜,宋先月,谢端,等.地震非均匀度在华北地震中期预报中的应用[J].中国地震,2001,17(3):263-270.
[18]肖丽珠,柳永秀,石航.地震非均匀度在甘肃及邻区中强地震中短期预报中的应用[J].地震,1998,18(2):189-194.
[2]张肇诚,罗兰格,李海华,等.中国震例(1976—1980)[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[3]张肇诚,罗兰格,李海华,等.中国震例(1981—1985)[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[4]傅承义.地球十讲[M].北京:科学出版社,1976.
[5]马胜利,雷兴林,刘力强.标本非均匀性对岩石变形声发射时空分布的影响及其地震学意义[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(1):127-131.
[6]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,26(3):426-435.
[7]Lockner D.The role of acoustic emission in the study of rock fracture[J].Int J Rock Mech Min Sci,1993,30:883-900.
[8]蒋海昆,张流.岩石微破裂时空分布特征及其动态演化过程的声发射研究进展[J].世界地震译丛,1998,(5):1-10.
[9]李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用[J].地震,1994,6:11-17.
[10]傅征祥.中国大陆东部强震活动时间过程的不均匀性[J].中国地震,1991,7(2):1-11.
[11]王梓坤.概率论基础及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1976.
[12]Ponomarev A V,Zavyalov A D,Smirnov V B,et al.Physical modeling of the formation and evolu-tion of seismically active fault zones[J].Tectonophysics,1997,(27):1-3,57-81.
[13]Locker D A,Byerlee J D.Development of fracture planes during creep in granite[M].In:Hardy,H.R.,Leighton,F.W.(Eds),Proceedings of the 2th Conference on Acoustic Emission,Mocro-seismic Activity in Geological Structures and Materials.Trans-tech.Publications,Clausthal-Zeller-feld,1980,11-25.
[14]Locker D A,Byerlee J D,Kuksenko V S.Observations of quasistatatic fault growth from acoustic e-missions[M].In:Evans B.,Wong T.-F.(Eds),Fault Mechanics and Transport Properties ofRocks.Academic Press,London,1992,3-31.
[15]Mjachkin V I,Bruce W F,Sobolev G.A.Two Models for Earthquake Forerunners[J].Pageoph,1975,113:169-181.
[16]陈章立.浅论地震预报地震学方法基础[M].北京:地震出版社,2004.
[17]王炜,宋先月,谢端,等.地震非均匀度在华北地震中期预报中的应用[J].中国地震,2001,17(3):263-270.
[18]肖丽珠,柳永秀,石航.地震非均匀度在甘肃及邻区中强地震中短期预报中的应用[J].地震,1998,18(2):189-194.
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