中国大陆7级强震预测
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摘要
１９８８ 年以来， 中国大陆发生了４ 次７ 级强震， 作者利用可公度性计算和评估函数及川滇强震特征等方法， 对这４ 次强震作出了较好的预测。长期的研究实践表明， 地震发生的时间、地点在一定区域内呈现出某种韵律特征。地震的可公度性能表述这种韵律特征， 特别在活动期内， 利用可公度计算预报６ ～７ 级的地震应是一种较好的方法。
There have occurred 4 M7 earthquakes in China Continent since 1988. The author made good predictions to the 4 strong earthquakes by commensurable calculation, estimation function and features of strong earthquakes in Sichuan Yunnan. The long study experience shows that the time and location of earthquake occurrences within a certain region appears some kind of rhythm features. Commensurability of earthquake can express the rhythm features, which is a fairly good method that used to predict M6 7 earthquakes, especially during the period of seismicity.
There have occurred 4 M7 earthquakes in China Continent since 1988. The author made good predictions to the 4 strong earthquakes by commensurable calculation, estimation function and features of strong earthquakes in Sichuan Yunnan. The long study experience shows that the time and location of earthquake occurrences within a certain region appears some kind of rhythm features. Commensurability of earthquake can express the rhythm features, which is a fairly good method that used to predict M6 7 earthquakes, especially during the period of seismicity.
引文
〔1〕翁文波原著- 吕牛顿, 张清编- 预测学- 北京: 石油工业出版社, 1996-3～20
〔2〕翁文波- 可公度性, 地球物理学报, 1981 , 24 (2) : 151 —154
〔3〕董国胜, 张朝方主编- 多震区地震研究- 昆明: 云南科技出版社-1994-30 —41
〔4〕皇甫岗-1996 年2 月3 日云南丽江7-0 级地震- 地震研究, 1997 , 20 (1) : 1 —8
〔2〕翁文波- 可公度性, 地球物理学报, 1981 , 24 (2) : 151 —154
〔3〕董国胜, 张朝方主编- 多震区地震研究- 昆明: 云南科技出版社-1994-30 —41
〔4〕皇甫岗-1996 年2 月3 日云南丽江7-0 级地震- 地震研究, 1997 , 20 (1) : 1 —8
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