地震预测——进展、困难与前景
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摘要
地震预测是一个既紧迫要求予以回答、又需要通过长期探索方能解决的地球科学难题。20世纪60年代以来,中期与长期地震预测研究取得了一些有意义的进展,如板块边界大“地震空区”的确认、“应力影区”、地震活动性图像、图像识别以及由美国帕克菲尔德地震预报实践获得的正反两方面的经验等。但是地震预测尚处于初期的科学探索阶段,目前总体水平仍然不高,特别是短期与临震预测的水平与社会需求相距甚远。地震预测的进展主要受到地球内部的“不可人性”、大地震的“非频发性”以及地震物理过程复杂性等困难的制约。依靠科技进步,强化对地震及其前兆的观测,选准地点、开展并坚持以地震预测试验场为重要方式的地震预测科学试验,系统地进行基础性的对地球内部及对地震的观测、探测与研究,坚持不懈,对实现地震预测的前景是可以审慎地乐观的。
Earthquake prediction is a difficult problem in Earth science that the general public wants to be solved urgently,yet for achieving this scientific goal long-search is required.Since 1960s considerable progress has been made in long- and intermediate- term prediction,inclu- ding seismic-gap method,stress shadow method,seismicity pattern method and computerized pattern recognition techniques in predicting large earthquakes,the occurrence of anticipated Parkfield earthquake.At present,earthquake prediction is in its infant,exploratory stage, the ability to make short- and imminent- term earthquake prediction remains poor.Study of earthquakes prediction encounters difficulties caused by the facts that source region in the Earth′s interior is inaccessible for direct observations,large earthquakes are infrequent and complexities exist in physical process of earthquake.To achieve reliable earthquake predic- tion it is necessary to introduce scientific and technological advances into studies of earth- quake prediction,to enhance seismological observations and earthquake precursor observa- tions,to perform scientific experiments with patience and diligence in carefully selected earthquake prediction experiment sites,and to systematically carry out basic observation, exploration and researches of the Earth's interior and earthquake sources.Although to pre- dict earthquakes is difficult,but the prospect is cautiously optimistic.
Earthquake prediction is a difficult problem in Earth science that the general public wants to be solved urgently,yet for achieving this scientific goal long-search is required.Since 1960s considerable progress has been made in long- and intermediate- term prediction,inclu- ding seismic-gap method,stress shadow method,seismicity pattern method and computerized pattern recognition techniques in predicting large earthquakes,the occurrence of anticipated Parkfield earthquake.At present,earthquake prediction is in its infant,exploratory stage, the ability to make short- and imminent- term earthquake prediction remains poor.Study of earthquakes prediction encounters difficulties caused by the facts that source region in the Earth′s interior is inaccessible for direct observations,large earthquakes are infrequent and complexities exist in physical process of earthquake.To achieve reliable earthquake predic- tion it is necessary to introduce scientific and technological advances into studies of earth- quake prediction,to enhance seismological observations and earthquake precursor observa- tions,to perform scientific experiments with patience and diligence in carefully selected earthquake prediction experiment sites,and to systematically carry out basic observation, exploration and researches of the Earth's interior and earthquake sources.Although to pre- dict earthquakes is difficult,but the prospect is cautiously optimistic.
引文
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