决策气象服务回顾与展望
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摘要
简要回顾了决策气象服务发展历程、取得的成就,介绍了决策气象服务内容、特点及气象灾害预评估技术,通过登陆台风、致洪暴雨、低温雨雪冰冻灾害气象服务以及"5.12"汶川大地震气象服务、2008年北京奥运会及残奥会气象服务等重大服务案例的剖析分析了影响决策气象服务效益的因素,总结了决策气象服务成功经验,并就如何进一步改进决策气象服务工作进行了思考。
The developing course and the consequential achievement of the meteorological decision-making services were briefly reviewed.The content and character of the meteorological decision-making services as well as the meteorological disaster evaluating technique were described.By studying the meteorological service cases of some significant events,such as the landfalling typhoon,the flood-inducing rainstorm,the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather,the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,as well as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and Paralympic Games,the factors influencing the meteorological decision-making service benefit were analyzed,the successful experiences were summarized,and some ideas about further improving were put forward.
The developing course and the consequential achievement of the meteorological decision-making services were briefly reviewed.The content and character of the meteorological decision-making services as well as the meteorological disaster evaluating technique were described.By studying the meteorological service cases of some significant events,such as the landfalling typhoon,the flood-inducing rainstorm,the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather,the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,as well as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and Paralympic Games,the factors influencing the meteorological decision-making service benefit were analyzed,the successful experiences were summarized,and some ideas about further improving were put forward.
引文
[1]裘国庆.国家气象中心50年[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:78- 84.
[2]马清云,李佳英,王秀荣,等.基于模糊综合评价法的登陆台风灾害影响评估模型[J].气象,2008,34(5):20-25.
[3]王维国,王秀荣,许映龙,等.超强台风“桑美”特征及预报服务效益分析[J].自然灾害学报,2008,3:106-111.
[4]马学款,熊秋芬.台风相继登陆,南方高温肆虐[J].气象,2006, 32(11):118-123.
[5]王凌,高歌,张强,等.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析Ⅰ.气候特征与影响评估[J].气象,2008,34(4):95- 100.
[6]林良勋,吴乃庚,蔡安安,等.广东2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气象应急响应[J].气象,2009,35(5):26-33.
[7]郑国光.北京奥运会残奥会气象服务报告(2001-2008)[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:143-154.
[2]马清云,李佳英,王秀荣,等.基于模糊综合评价法的登陆台风灾害影响评估模型[J].气象,2008,34(5):20-25.
[3]王维国,王秀荣,许映龙,等.超强台风“桑美”特征及预报服务效益分析[J].自然灾害学报,2008,3:106-111.
[4]马学款,熊秋芬.台风相继登陆,南方高温肆虐[J].气象,2006, 32(11):118-123.
[5]王凌,高歌,张强,等.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析Ⅰ.气候特征与影响评估[J].气象,2008,34(4):95- 100.
[6]林良勋,吴乃庚,蔡安安,等.广东2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气象应急响应[J].气象,2009,35(5):26-33.
[7]郑国光.北京奥运会残奥会气象服务报告(2001-2008)[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:143-154.
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