川滇地区M≥7地震早期衰减特征与汶川8.0级地震强余震预测
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摘要
通过对川滇地区M≥7地震余震序列活动早期衰减特征的研究,发现序列基本上符合G-R关系,大、小地震成比例,序列中的最大强余震小于或等于用序列拟合计算b值截距得到的最大地震,且误差ΔM≤0.4;最大强余震多在2个月内发生,序列中较强余震的h值小于1时,其后通常还会发生震级较大的余震,当h大于1时,序列余震震级不会太高;最大强余震常发生在序列前期释放较弱的地段。将这些共性特征应用于汶川8.0级地震余震的前期跟踪监视中,通过了2个月内余震的衰减趋势和强余震判断结果的外推应用检验。
We study the features of aftershock sequences of M≥7 earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region,and find the sequences basically conforms to the Gutenberg-Richter relation,and the number of large earthquakes is proportional with that of the small ones.The maximal magnitude of the aftershocks is less than or equal to the magnitude given by the b-valve interception method using sequence data,and the magnitude error ΔM≤0.5.The maximal aftershock usually happens in two months after a mainshock.When the h-value of relatively strong aftershocks in sequences is less than 1.0,the later aftershocks usually have equivalent magnitude;oppositely,when the h-value of relatively strong aftershocks in sequences is larger than 1.0,the magnitudes of later aftershocks are not too large.The maximal aftershock usually happens in the place where early energy release of sequence is weak.We apply these common characteristics to the aftershock monitoring of the Wenchuan earthquake,which passes the extrapolation tests of aftershocks attenuation tendency of the Wenchuan earthquake and its strong aftershock prediction.
We study the features of aftershock sequences of M≥7 earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region,and find the sequences basically conforms to the Gutenberg-Richter relation,and the number of large earthquakes is proportional with that of the small ones.The maximal magnitude of the aftershocks is less than or equal to the magnitude given by the b-valve interception method using sequence data,and the magnitude error ΔM≤0.5.The maximal aftershock usually happens in two months after a mainshock.When the h-value of relatively strong aftershocks in sequences is less than 1.0,the later aftershocks usually have equivalent magnitude;oppositely,when the h-value of relatively strong aftershocks in sequences is larger than 1.0,the magnitudes of later aftershocks are not too large.The maximal aftershock usually happens in the place where early energy release of sequence is weak.We apply these common characteristics to the aftershock monitoring of the Wenchuan earthquake,which passes the extrapolation tests of aftershocks attenuation tendency of the Wenchuan earthquake and its strong aftershock prediction.
引文
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庄建仓,马丽.2000.主震和余震—从大森公式到ETAS模型[J]国际地震动态,(5):12-17.
陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[N/OL].中国地震信息网,2008-05-18.(2008-05-18)[2008-07-15].
傅征祥.1982.强余震活动持续时间[J].地震学报,4(4):389-394.
谷继成,谢小碧,赵莉.1979.强余震的时间分布特征及其理论解释[J].地球物理学报,22(1):32-46.
谷继成,谢小碧,赵莉.1982.强余震的空间分布特征及其理论解释[J].地震学报,4(4):380-388.
韩渭宾,王虹,曾健,等.1993.中强以上地震的震后趋势早期综合判定方法研究[J].地震学报,15(1):15-21.
刘正荣,孔绍麟.1986.根据地震频度衰减与地震预报[J].地震研究,9(1):6-8.
陆远忠,陈章立.1985.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社.
中国地震局监测预报司.2007.中国大陆地震序列研究[M].北京:地震出版社.
周翠英,张宇霞,王红卫,等.1996.以模式识别方法提取地震序列早期判断的综合指标[J].地震学报,18(1):118-124.
朱传镇,王琳瑛.1989.震群信息熵异常与地震预报[C]//许绍燮编著.地震预报方法实用化研究文集:地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,229-242.
庄建仓,马丽.2000.主震和余震—从大森公式到ETAS模型[J]国际地震动态,(5):12-17.
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